whitty-southwest-uk
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Posts posted by whitty-southwest-uk
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2 minutes ago, Supacell said:
I am awaiting the 06z runs of the high resolution models and will base my decisions on that.
Option 1: Within the next hour head north-west towards Congleton/Macclesfield with access to the M6 in order to get northwest or south if need be. This would be on the hope of storms breaking out to the west of the Peak District. You would be well placed at Woodhead Pass to drop west, but storms are very dependent on orographic forcing and sunshine to get going at all and when they do form they could form to the northwest of us and be moving away
Option 2: Head south-west towards somewhere to the south/south-west of Birmingham later this afternoon. Possibly placing myself near to the Welsh border. It's just a pity I can't cross it as storms look more likely across the other side of the border. This is risky as some models don't bring anything down here. Added bonus is that here it will likely be that developments happen some way south so there will be a bit of time to get into position.
I like the sound of option 2 and i'm thinking myself to hit Gloucester a little later and see what starts to initiate in hope it starts around south maybe London and then have a bit more of an idea to push on North.
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2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Nooo, I've decided against travelling today after considering it yesterday. Risk is too low imo.
Cheers Ben.
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2 minutes ago, Charlie Harnett said:
Oh, hi just down the in camelfird near Bodmin Moor and roughtor
Hey Hey literally just down the road, I'm Plymouth!!
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Just now, Supacell said:
Not out as yet, but I will be . Trying to decide between heading northwest in the next hour or waiting a bit and then heading south/southwest for this evening's possibillities. Yesterday it seemed almost certain that NW would be best, but now have concerns that warm nose of air above will scupper things and I would best to wait for later. Having said that the sun is out here now and clouds are going up.
Rekon its best to stay SW then as im Devon and was thinking of hitting Gloucester area and going from there? I'm in so many minds as to what to do. ahhhh need second opinions!!
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4 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:
Lol yh
Its certainly been an eye opener this year - Am used to 84/75 for most of May and June so guess I am out of practise lol
You tempted to scoot across to the West Midlands today ? Am pretty certain Supacell will be out chasing today
Is it worth travelling up from the SW? Not like i got anything else to do but i guess its justifying the trip up and potentially seeing not one bang or flash haha
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Well just as I predicted not ruling out SW to have some structure. Good little chase despite the lack of lightning however some great CG. Anyway good luck to you guys chasing on the East.
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Just now, bradleywx said:
Same..haven’t done this many alarms since mid March ..not that I’m expecting much at all, but watching any sorts of developments can always be fun lol
Good luck guys as Reed Timmer would say never stop chasing
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9 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:
Yep. Remember for storms you need more than just cape. You need moisture, Cape, and a forcing mechanism to allow the moist parcel of air into the CAPE. Add a bit of shear to that mix then you have a far stronger environment for a more persistent storm.
Thanks
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1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:
Yep. Remember for storms you need more than just cape. You need moisture, Cape, and a forcing mechanism to allow the moist parcel of air into the CAPE. Add a bit of shear to that mix then you have a far stronger environment for a more persistent storm.
Thank you much appreciated. Ill bear this in mind going forward. Be great sitting back and viewing everyone's comments and surprisingly gives me an insight into weather language as such.
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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:
There was never a risk of thunderstorms today, despite the models showing CAPE across SE UK, as the atmosphere was capped by high pressure/ridging. CAPE showing doesn't always mean storms are likely.
Thanks for clearing that up. Still all new to me so i appreciate your input and knowledge.
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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
Yeah I’m confused as a hen. Tomorrow morning is what it’s all about at the mo.
Evolution from that point onwards is completely dependant on how the atmosphere stabilises (or not) from the first trough passing through.
Also worth noting that very often these charts can show two or three events consecutively in a similar location - but this rarely does materialise, probably because of the knock-on effect of one event on the next etc.
Hopefully we do get a couple of good storms out of this. Still hopeful, maybe nothing hugely severe but some early morning dry lightning would be great as an aperitif for Summer 2020
Well today there was a risk of storms in that area and was there any development? Not a single bit so I’d keep an open mind and instead of looking at models I’d concentrate more on live radar ect. That’s my opinion.
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Let's not worry about Friday for now and i think we should all concentrate on tomorrow as its getting a little confusing switching between the two. As you all know its confusing as it is given will it, wont it ect and thats not helping haha.
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I personally think this has all been hyped up over nothing. We will see but as time goes on it’s looking lesser.
its like mummy telling you if you have been good you can have an ice lolly at the end of the day and you spend all day being good deciding what flavour you want to finally getting there and realising the lolly you want isn’t there and if fact the ice cream van isn’t around.
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Just now, Harry said:
Noting all the comments re morning storms. I am so storm starved I’ll take anything I can get right now
Haha I’m with you on this. Morning or evening if it’s good enough I’m in it!!!
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7 hours ago, Supacell said:
It's too early to be that specific. As things stand eastward progress of the fresher air would need to slow down to give Wales a chance. Broadstairs (Kent) is in with a shout as you will be in the warm and thundery air for longer. Precipitation charts at this range are not much use. I will start looking at them later on Wednesday into Thursday.
I agree.
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Though I feel right now it really is early days to judge exactly how Thursday will pan out, models are constantly changing but it could be entertaining. I live in Devon so my chances are ruled out unless it starts coming together east of Dartmoor to which id chase into the core over East of UK. great job the A303 is slap bang in the path as could be chasing parallel with it. Supercell cant be ruled out though.
Is there anyone else out for this, given the social distancing be good to hook up with others and chase in a convey or something? I know its hit and miss but never stop chasing i guess. Obviously this all comes down to how good the models are showing and if i can justify going to the other side of the UK for nothing haha.
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Could really do with a storm in the Southwest. Getting bored of watching the radar and seeing it all fizzle out over North of France.
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Think its touch and go anywhere but i think we will mostly get showers down here with the odd flash maybe.