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Posts posted by nytram43
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4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
I can the light blue run that goes to -17c that’s the trend setter you know past next weekend
If only!
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Still can't see where this might go by next week end???
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7 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:
That is some block and as for the suns influence on upcoming events it will be like a butterfly farting in the breeze compared to what the SSW is going to produce. It’s coming just be a little more patient
Where does the energy for a ssw come from?
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36 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
Not good news for coldies re the overall winter patterns, looking at the latest computer output from UK Met. What the discussions will be in their Ops room trying to marry this output with what we have had and the possibilities according to some on the longer range models we see would be interesting to be able to eavesdrop!
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob
How does this prediction compare to the previous 3 months predicted with the same tool. Close, better or worse? How accurate do you believe it to be?
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Well presented run through of the models, however, I would like to point out one thing that is important - he doesn't explain WHY that particular evolution is any more likely than the others. Any one of us could find a run that we like and that produces the synoptics we're looking for, however its the explanation why a particular pattern may arrive that for me is important.
I think he said the Canadian models had had some accurate runs lately which is why he favoured this particular outcome. However, he also said he was only 20% confident, which is pretty low.
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Summer sun chart show zero degree isotherm in the English channel your chart same isotherm south of Spain... not fair comparison really.