[Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?]

3 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

 

Luton airport wasn't closed as a result of this then? 

Summer sun chart show zero degree isotherm in the English channel your chart same isotherm south of Spain... not fair comparison really.

 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

I can the light blue run that goes to -17c that’s the trend setter you know past next weekend

If only!

 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Still can't see where this might go by next week end???

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

 

 

7 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

That is some block and as for the suns influence on upcoming events it will be like a butterfly farting in the breeze compared to what the SSW is going to produce. It’s coming just be a little more patient 

Where does the energy for a ssw come from?

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

I'm struggling to see people's optimism on here tonight with a massive spread in solutions from next weekend onwards. From deep freeze to balmy... but probably somewhere in the middle. Rather like it is right now. 

 

 

[Model output discussion - mid January]

4 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

These are for London southern Britain looks to be going in to the freezer with this .

There is still a large spread on that chart after the 1/2/18

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

At the moment it appears 850's trending down again after middle of next week but the spread is quite wide.

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

17 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Huh .. the ECM op was milder at the end ? 

What region is this chart for?

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

9 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Could draw in some very cold air from Russia eventually.

It's a balmy 1 deg C in Moscow at the moment and no sign of getting colder for the next five days.

[Model output discussion - heading into 2018]

23 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Why is so little being said about this in the world beyond NW? It's only 96 hours away.

 

Am I reading these charts wrong or is the snow line above 1000 Feet?

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

36 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not good news for coldies re the overall winter patterns, looking at the latest computer output from UK Met. What the discussions will be in their Ops room trying to marry this output with what we have had and the possibilities according to some on the longer range models we see would be interesting to be able to eavesdrop!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

How does this prediction compare to the previous 3 months predicted with the same tool. Close, better or worse? How accurate do you believe it to be? 

[Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December]

Well presented run through of the models, however, I would like to point out one thing that is important - he doesn't explain WHY that particular evolution is any more likely than the others. Any one of us could find a run that we like and that produces the synoptics we're looking for, however its the explanation why a particular pattern may arrive that for me is important.

I think he said the Canadian models had had some accurate runs lately which is why he favoured this particular outcome. However, he also said he was only 20% confident, which is pretty low.