[Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.]

1 minute ago, CasMan said:

I never post on here as i am not knowledgeable enough but i have followed this thread year in year out for over 15 years, and the amount of pessimism in here is unreal even when good weather is around, i'm sure some people just get off on trolling these pages, as mentioned above certain posters will not comment on this run as its much better than the 0z.  We know who they are, maybe its a trait of weather enthusiasts in the uk, always waiting for it to go wrong as it normally does.  I am all for different viewpoints but some people really need to take a look at themselves.  Back under my stone now lol.

That's cos we are used to seeing it go wrong mate , follow the worse solution and you won't go far wrong 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.]

10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Yes a fantastic run- I'm not getting too excited as it is just one run, but interesting how no one is commenting on this run. I'm sure if it was a procession of lows being shown, people would be commenting on it straight away.

The consensus seems to be that there's a good chance of a hot spell around midweek. How long this lasts is still open to question. The 06z run shows that it's by no means decided that this is going to be a very brief affair, with the heat actually intensifying towards next weekend.

-

The ECM is the daddy mate and it's ensembles back it up 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Can you quote Mushy please then? Pretty sure he has been commenting on the anomaly charts which give a general overview rather than a huge amount of detail- they give a solid idea of the direction of travel.

I believe those charts have been indicating a flow from the SW with a trough to our west/north west and high pressure over Scandinavia- hardly a disastrous scenario for the UK.

So how what he has said is backing up all the negativity this morning I don't quite know.

What he said mate was no settled spell ...the noaa charts didn't back up high pressure staying over the UK - now the models are backing him up .

[Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

No you didn’t. You commented on something that hasn’t even happened. How can you congratulate someone on an event that hasn’t happened yet? Wait for the 12z runs which could correct the other way.

When it goes to dung mate it doesn't revert back !

[Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Negative hyperbole again this morning, it happens every time before any kind of warm spell or improvement in here.

The number of times we saw this in May was unbelievable, despite it ending up the sunniest month on record- people were generally very negative about the model output.

I don't understand why such knowledgeable people get so caught up focusing on the variations between runs? Even the ensembles are subject to massive changes from day to day.

The fact is that things are far from clear even 3 or 4 days ahead at the moment, so negativity about a warm spell that hasn't even happened yet is futile.

It must be so confusing for people new to the models coming in and reading this thread.

People are commenting on what they see mate . Mushy called this yesterday and all the models now agree 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

ECM has 30c on Thursday. Also 28c Wednesday, but its looking more likely this will be a 2 day job now. I said yesterday it had been pushed back, and it has again today. A couple of days ago Saturday was shown as the transition day, with Sunday the first real settled day (see below)

Sunday now looks windy, Monday a bit better....but the more settled stuff doesnt arrive til Tuesday/Wednesday, and is gone again by the weekend. In some places it might not even arrive!

 

Yep for areas away from the SE it's unsettled and cool especially this weekend and then again by late next week

[Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.]

Well done to Mushy man he said yesterday the unsettled weather would soon be back 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

A lovely morning here, 22C now