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mfhblue

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    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

    Think new ones should pop up as the colder 850s reach our shores!

    UKV has massively underdone the amount of precipitation and even it has showers going until 7/8PM so would be surprised if it stopped so soon.

    There should also be a subtle change in wind direction at the 850hPa level. More of an easterly component might bring a bit more of the region into play as well.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

    Just looking at the sat pic for midday French time and noticed this long almost continuous narrow cloud band . I wonder if it’s a trough . And yes I need to get out more !

    IMG_0721.thumb.JPG.ccbc2153bc2b9d5e0d7e4d86f86fcf02.JPG

    I was watching the same earlier. I think it's due to the slight convergence zone along the northern Dutch cost. I am hoping (not expecting) it might fire a few showers in my direction (NW home counties) later on when the steering winds back more from NE to ENE. As I say, hoping, not expecting at all.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    how does deeper trough become great - for 90% of us it looks like very windy, cold and blustery but not cold enough for snow.. and will then pass through us and leave potential mess to clear up Christmas weekend? unless I'm missing something.. 🙂

    As it passes it looks like drawing in a potent Northerly, potentially sustained IMHO.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, LRD said:

    Not at all. I couldn't care less one way or the other. I want winter but I'm not that bothered if it arrives or not. I just challenge hyperbole when I see it

    Anyway, GFS ensembles looking the best they've done all day if it's chilly weather you're after

    image.thumb.png.c9d08025690448756cc3071e1138609b.png

    Nothing out of the ordinary but there's some encouraging signs there

    Hopefully not hyperbole. Those ensembles clearly confirm a blocked pattern to me. Whether blocking is favourable or not for our little island will probably not be resolved for some time. But we are in the game!

    • Like 4

    Winter driving advice after the deep snow in the Lake District

    in Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Posted

    As already said, driver ability, or at least experience driving on snow is key.

    The obvious one is to slow down and do everything as smoothly as you possible can. Traction is key. If your wheels start to slip through acceleration, cornering, or braking then back-off, regain traction and try again more gently. You should expect to have to correct things frequently like this, so anticipate it and allow plenty of additional space and time.

    Winter tyres and/or 4WD most certainly help, but they are not a panacea. That is especially true when it comes to braking. All cars have 4 wheel braking so you are no better off in a 4WD, slow down and brake early and gently. Engine braking is essential, particularly if you are going downhill, don't forget that engine braking can still cause the car to slide, particularly if it's a sudden shift. If you drive an automatic make sure you know how to change gears manually, it really is an essential skill on snow.

    If your wheels start to slip when accelerating, do not step on the gas harder and try to power your way out of it, you'll just end up sliding into the gutter (or if unlucky an oncoming car). Lift off, and try again more gently, perhaps try a higher gear, don't worry about speed, focus on keeping your drive wheels turning without spinning. Be aware of whether you are driving a FWD, RWD, or 4WD car, they all react differently when you lose traction and it helps knowing what to expect.

    The bottom line though, no matter how capable you are, or your car is, if the road is blocked by other cars you are going nowhere.

    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

    Now that does look like a repeat of last December! But as we said yesterday that wasn’t expected even hours before the event.. 

    It does indeed. I recall posting a chart almost identical to the one below a day or two before last year's "event". A little low forming in the South West and trundling along the channel coast. If I recall correctly, GFS kept toying with the idea and then dropping it again. Could history be about to repeat itself?

    image.thumb.png.72b06f6d1ca065b8c1097dfe411eccf8.png

    • Like 2

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    53 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

    Don’t know whether anyone else has found this but two nights in a row now the temperature dips well below freezing about 4pm then levels out about 6pm rising a bit . Settles at about -3c to -4c and then drops dramatically between about 6-8am ! Today for example it was -3.5c at 5:30 now it’s -6.1c! . I know it’s coldest about now but seems a bit strange to me . Nothing wrong with my weather station must be something to do with the current set up 

    The temperature dropping at dawn after a still night is something I have observed many times, it has been very noticeable this week.  Some mornings here it has dropped around 1.5c in the first half hour or so of daylight. I did a bit of research last night and found an explanation for it.  It appears that the first weak rays of sunshine in the morning warm the ground by a tiny amount, not a significant amount but enough to cause a little bit of convection and mixing of the air at the ground with the air just above it.  Hence the even colder air at ground level is mixed with the air just above it which causes the air temperature at the height it is measured (around 2m) to fall.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    • Insightful 4

    Dew cover and Ice

    in Weather and Meteorology Q&A

    Posted

    This might not exactly answer the question why frost forms on grass at sunrise, but it is an interesting (and possibly connected) phenomena.  I am sure many have noticed after a cold night how the temperature often falls a bit further at sunrise.  The last two mornings this has been really noticeable on my weather station.  It was already extremely cold at dawn but the temperature fell quickly by another 1-2c in the next half hour both mornings.  I did a bit of research earlier and found an explanation for this.

    As I am sure we all know, on a still night the temperature is often colder at ground level than the temperature at 2m (the typical height at which it is measured), hence you can have a ground frost when the air temp is above 0c.  It seems that the first weak rays of sunshine in the morning warm the ground by a tiny amount, just enough to cause a little bit of convection and mixing of the air at the surface with the air just above.  Hence the very cold air at ground level is mixed with the air just above it causing the measured air temperature to fall at 2m level.

    Maybe the phenomena are connected in some way and someone more qualified can explain.  I am thinking possibly something to do with some of the dew evaporating as part of this micro-scale convection process, and in turn causing a cooling of the remaining dew on the grass.

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Kiwi said:

    Bonkers!! I was in Austria 2 days ago - drove for 2hrs through heavy snow from Mayrhofen to Salzburg. No problems on any of the roads, despite laying snow- apart from a few speed restrictions. The only difference is that Austrian/German law requires all-season or winter tyres on all vehicles. Cars don't grind to a stop over an inch or two of snow and most importantly don't block the road for gritters/ploughs etc.

    About time that all-season tyres became the requirement over here? the argument about all-seasons being unsuitable for the summer is rubbish, with most continental drivers keeping all-season tyres on all year.

    It's also not helped by the lack of ability to drive on snow in this country, e.g. don't jump on the brakes or try to accelerate harder when you start losing traction.  I suspect the increased numbers of RWD automatics has not helped either, as far as I know they all have a manual mode but I suspect most people don't know how or when to use it.

    • Like 4
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