Snow lover 2020
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Posts posted by Snow lover 2020
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27 minutes ago, mathematician said:
There's nothing natural about this global warming. Or do you think you know better than thousands of scientists whose theories are based on facts, not on opinions?
You do know global warming makes millions of dollar industry and taxes people over in America? Yes I’m a climate denier and you people are crying and throwing your dummy out the pram because we have no snow in December? Since when were Decembers filled with snow. It’s very rare! It’s mostly end of jan/feb the uk gets snow! If one say we get a bunch of winters filled with snow 3 month solid straight, you would still call it climate change. You’ve been brainwashed I’m afraid
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42 minutes ago, Leo97t said:
Yeah I'd really agreed that the climate has already changed. Remember there was no significant cold spell in lowland SE England from 1991 until 2009 - 18 year! From my point of view, under the parameters of the new climate, the 2010s absolutely spoilt us. The only month in this period I consider truly and unusually mild is obviously December 2015 - all other mild months fit into the new climatology well.
The earth goes through natural cycles!
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33 minutes ago, Leo97t said:
Yeah I'd really agreed that the climate has already changed. Remember there was no significant cold spell in lowland SE England from 1991 until 2009 - 18 year! From my point of view, under the parameters of the new climate, the 2010s absolutely spoilt us. The only month in this period I consider truly and unusually mild is obviously December 2015 - all other mild months fit into the new climatology well.
You guys are so annoying! Climate change has nothing to do with it! We’ve rarely had white Decembers!!!!
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I’m ashamed of you guys hyping up a white Xmas! Shame on you! I’m disgusted
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We are in for a mild winter
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23 minutes ago, Catacol said:
These are starting to look quite striking....and Simon Lee has let slip today that Glosea is saying the same (hidden from us mere mortals!). Fingers crossed that any global impacts dont leave us on the mild side of developments. Some will cash in, others will just gnash....
Global impacts like what?
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Hard frost here in Dorset south
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1 hour ago, mathematician said:
What YOU don't understand it's actually very simple.
If an area has an average temperature in winter of, say, -10 and due to the global warming there's a 3° increase you get to -7, still enough to snow.
In the uk, and in similar countries /areas, you, go from 0 to 3°, hence not cold enough to snow anymore.
What's so difficult to understand honestly?
Where’s the links please that show a 3 degree increase in uk or have you made that up? You’re acting like it hasn’t snowed at all in the uk for years the uk has never had consecutive severe cold winters throughout the whole 3 months. It’s always been hit and miss. Climate change, YES the climate does change with its natural cycles. Not man made thank you
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1 hour ago, mathematician said:
What YOU don't understand it's actually very simple.
If an area has an average temperature in winter of, say, -10 and due to the global warming there's a 3° increase you get to -7, still enough to snow.
In the uk, and in similar countries /areas, you, go from 0 to 3°, hence not cold enough to snow anymore.
What's so difficult to understand honestly?
What are you on about? There has been snow up north and snow showers in the uk to lower levels in December.
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54 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:
Must say the bar for winter is as low as it will go meaning even a dusting that lasts for 4 hours is an improvement.
That Met Office article is quite depressing but we knew that anyway. A winter like last year will be the norm, but at least the other 3 seasons will get more interesting!
QUICK EDIT: The fact our winters are already mild means any last cold percentile will quickly go. Northwestern Europe has already lost the most 'snow days' compared to other places because those snow days were already marginal
What people don’t seem to understand is. America, Canada and all other places get heavy snow every winter. Even Australia had snow this season to lower levels. So if it’s global warming why is not affecting these countries? Just makes me laugh how everyone says it’s “climate change” when we get loads abnormal amounts of snow, and then say it’s “climate change” when we get zero snow. What is it gonna be? It’s called WEATHER
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Looks like winter is over folks
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47 minutes ago, mb018538 said:
Wouldn't want to go skiing on that downward slope!What does this chart mean
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Your December forecast is seeming to be wrong as we head into a cold spell with signals pretty much all month
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Metoffice going for 5% chance of being cold. Weren’t they the ones who predicted a colder than average 2018-2019 and it turned out mild?!!
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10 minutes ago, Catacol said:
Imagine a balloon pinched between your fingers. You end up with 2 smaller balloons. This is what warm air fired up into the polar vortex can do. The warm air acts to significantly reduce the temperature gradient in parts, and if 2 blasts of warm air are fired into the vortex from opposite sides of the globe then this acts to “pinch” the vortex just like the balloon between your fingers. We call this a wave 2 event.
In situations where this happens the removal of strong westerly influence in sectors where the pinching occurs tends to encourage strong high latitude blocking and cold air spills out. However it is extremely difficult to be sure where the cold will end up. In Feb/March 2018 we hit the big jackpot though it was 2-4 weeks too late really to maximise cold impacts. Equally as the blocks form warm air is forced north....and so a split vortex event like this can produce very warm temperatures for some parts. Therefore it is a scenario laced with various scenarios....but in general the disruption to the vortex caused by the pinching increases cold outbreaks in lower latitudes.
Wave 1 events can also occur - warming on only one side of the vortex. Rather than pinch and split the vortex these events push it off its central axis and this can also promote cold outbreaks to favoured parts. Much depends on where the displaced vortex ends up. If Siberian led warming pushes it over Greenland/Canada it tends to be bad news for us (unless you like rain that is....)
What causes these warming wave attacks on the vortex? That’s a very complex subject. Not time to go into that here - go read up on it. Suffice to say that forecast patterns for the next couple of weeks are suggesting the possibility of a wave 2 attack. This doesn’t mean the vortex will automatically split (often the fingers don’t pinch the balloon hard enough to do more than force it a bit out of shape) but it is a start. Weaken it....hit it again in January and we stand a chance of a SSW inspired vortex split. 50% of Niña wQBO winters produce a SSW event big enough to cause serious grief for the vortex. Fingers crossed.
Ok but if an SSW in jan occurs and gives us cold snow weather then this invalidates metoffice, BBC’s winter forecasts? They all going for zonal winter
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52 minutes ago, Catacol said:
Just like this. Broadmayne must have had a fun week at this time in 1996. In the piddle valley I was up to my knees.....
And this anomaly forecast for Christmas week 2020 really isnt that bad at all. Great for that wave 2 vortex hammering that is increasingly getting talked about.
What will wave 2 vortex do?
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8 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
Perhaps there's a difference in:
What does does that mean for us then? Westerly?
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Hmmm we’ll see. I think it will be a cold winter
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7 minutes ago, Sky Full said:
1st of December and (at great personal risk of being pilloried.....) these CFS charts are now only 24 days away.......
Now that would make an interesting Christmas Day!
I know, I KNOW! It’s too far ahead. It’s never going to happen. Etc etc. Just let me dream, OK?You never know! CFS has had this showing on and off for last 3 weeks.
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1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:
That model does even go out far enough to show mid December.
No other models are if you scroll back a page. From 15th Dec
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34 minutes ago, West is Best said:
Actually it shows an advancing low mid-Atlantic at T144. And whilst T850's are chilly they are nowhere near the -5C hPa required. A case of only seeing what you wish to see I fear Steve on this occasion.
Wrong it’s showing deep cold mid December
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8 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:
00z a bit of a flop for us in the NW. But someone is going to get a pasting from this as the LP rotates. S Coast up through to Wilts heads up.
Omg yes! South coast gets snow from this!! Finally
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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:
More likely in mid to late Jan or even feb from where i ia coming from.
Ahhh well fingers crossed.
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14 minutes ago, Yarmy said:
This is what we have forecast at T330:
This is an SSW:
Besides, an SSW doesn't guarantee snow here anyway. If it did, we'd be buried every couple of years or so.
Yes
18 minutes ago, jcw said:Unfortunately talking about an SSW doesn't make it happen.
Useful to keep an eye on charts like this to see if there's any hint of a warming ahead...
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif
No there was actual charts based on it from various people on here and in the weather community on Twitter it “COULD” happen at end of Dec heading into a major SSW. signs were pointing towards it if we get further blocking etc
Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Thank you for proving my point