[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 hour ago, Harveyslugger said:

Monday is the Pembrokeshire dangler?you can see it on ukv

Hanging our hats on solely ukv is a dangerous game. We might get the odd shower that’ll crop up last minute but, based on the outputs available tonight as a whole, I think S.coast of England is the best chance of anything tangible.

(This is bordering if not regional material) Experience tells me that southward corrections are likely whilst northward less so. And that’s what we would need for us to really see anything tangible imo.
 

…but never say never.

Nos Da!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Just said to the Mrs “Fancy a short break to Snowdonia in a a week or so?”…..

The Black Mountains would do well if that came off, and you’d save a few hours at 20mph!

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

1 hour ago, acorb said:

Snowing heavily in Rhayader, settling on vegetation, but not roads. Seems surface temperatures just a little high. 

Your area is my favourite in the whole of wales with weather like this - everywhere you look is stunning. The amount of times I’ve driven up to Elan for it is borderline unnecessary 

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

We’ve had a 2/3inches here in Llandaf. Pretty wet. nothing on the roads of note.

Just got back from dropping the partner to work in Nantgarw, a few miles up the A470 and definitely less marginal up there (though the Garth (c.304m) isn’t exactly covered either) . Heavy precipitation due now for a while but this will be a short lived affair imo unfortunately (re. Near enough sea level).

Glad most have seen something! It’s been a rough ride the last couple years in the MOD thread

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I don't know about you but it's reminding me slightly of Dec 2009. November was very similar and the sheet ice here today reminded me of the pre Christmas cold we had back then. This chart reminds me of the few days before Christmas 2009 too...with a messy set up across the UK, generally cold and bits and pieces of wintry precipitation dotted about-

Long term spectator eyes here, but I thought the same - when these started hinting at Scandi and easterlies earlier this week, it took me straight back to the initial 2009 freeze.

Appreciate looking at previous set-ups and the subsequent conditions in years gone by isnt tonnes of use, hoar frost was the precursor in my neck of the woods and there has been patches about

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

23 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Time to hit the beer. This rollercoaster ride is all too much.

As someone all of 2miles south of the M4, after the past 12hrs, I’m looking into Tanqueray endorsements

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

5 hours ago, MAF said:

Having been around here for 18 years, i have learnt a lot about model reading and weather. My point i was trying to make is that there are a lot of viewers of these threads who are novices and find over technical posts difficult to interpret. sometimes posts are so technical they probably get ignored as its too difficult to understand them. with such a diverse audience, i wish sometimes that posters would give explainers with the more complex posts they make  

Just to throw some perspective at this (sorry mod’s - appreciate this is somewhat derailing); I too have been kicking about in here for years but TI and Jon Snow’s delivery of their analysis, I quite often take in more from those than any others where you can get lost in technical phrases. People learn differently.

Anyways, nearly sausage bap and Stella’s all round time of year!

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

24 minutes ago, icykev said:

The period of interest for me now is +144 late next week. Low pressure looking to make inroads deepening as it approaches UKMO 144

GEM looking to bring in the low pressure system @156

Causes severe weather and snow as it stalls and disrupts against the cold. Any thoughts on it possibly becoming a named storm, as by this time it will have already become dangerously cold. Similar to storm Emma in Feb 2018.

Resulting in this

Storm Emma 2018

Lets see what happens on the 12z✌❄

25 minutes ago, icykev said:

The period of interest for me now is +144 late next week. Low pressure looking to make inroads deepening as it approaches UKMO 144

GEM looking to bring in the low pressure system @156

Causes severe weather and snow as it stalls and disrupts against the cold. Any thoughts on it possibly becoming a named storm, as by this time it will have already become dangerously cold. Similar to storm Emma in Feb 2018.

Resulting in this

Storm Emma 2018

Lets see what happens on the 12z✌❄

I was just beginning to think how this sort of feels like how storm Emma evolved and how SW and my area S.Wales are really still in the game. Though, I’m sure the more educated in here will be able to educate how this set-up differs.

I live at sea level and a gritter became stranded on a road facing the sea - by the time the storm blew over, all that was visible was the top section of the windscreen and the little ‘spreading’ box on the roof.

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Apologies if this is a IMBY post but thought it maybe of use to echo what other members have said about the models not grasping what is happening right now - I live at sea level and on a freshwater marina (Cardiff Bay). We were forecast 0c for a couple hours by The Organisation last night.
 

I’ve just woken up and the marina is frozen over. First time that has happened in 5 years of living here. Admittedly, this is likely possible due to no wind and Welsh lock down preventing the fishing charters/yachts going anywhere, but may also indicate how long this cold spell has been kicking around for.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?]

1 hour ago, Dimie10 said:

I am what you would call an avid lurker on this site. I have been interested in weather (especially cold) all my life. I used to be on the old BBC weather site like a few of you on here i presume.

I just wondered why so many of you say not to trust forecasts past 5 days, yet talk about runs so far ahead that rarely come to fruition. What do you genuinely believe? will we have any cold weather in the next 10 days or should just keep away until after then to see if our chances improve?!!

Morning - same as yourself (it’s literally in my name). The trick (and what everyone is doing with FL charts) is to spot trends amongst all the available runs

Yes, they maybe unlikely but;

a) fun to look at
b) the more that come onboard with a certain trend, (in theory) a higher rate of verifying.