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7andY

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Posts posted by 7andY

    Steps Toward Accepting Change

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Well, should we dismiss the idea of evolution then, since it's based on theory and not proof?

    Or should we dismiss the idea that March will probably be warmer than February since it's based on theory and not proof?

    I don't normally put my toe into these murky waters, but I'm not sure these two (or four!) points are good ones to make, whichever side you are on!!

    We can surmise evolution, and see its effects over previous time. We cannot predict evolution. We can also surmise previous Climate Changes, and see the effects of previous Climate Changes, but our current predictions of Change Change are just that - predictions with no certainty in the outcome.

    We can be fairly confident that March will be warmer than February, because we've seen it before - we have experience of it. Climate Change no-one (alive!) has experienced (ie a previous episode)...

    So I'm not too sure what your analogies are trying to say :angry:

    Cheers, 7&Y

    What Should The Authorities Do ?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    There was an interesting point made on the TV about how stocks of salt/grit should be a strategic resource, rather than each Authority keeping its own. At least if one area isn't having snow, the supplies can be used where it's needed. Maybe the same could be done with equipment to deal with the snow like ploughs and diggers.

    Could lead to a National Snow Task Force run by the Government - um, then again, perhaps not :doh:

    7&Y

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A quick question, if I may.

    We're talking here of a SW event that has yet to impact on the Troposphere, I take it?

    If that's the case, and there is as yet no impact, and the forecast models do not utilise Stratospheric data, why are people saying that they can see these impacts out in FI. If it's not yet appearing as data in the models, then surely no model output can be ascribed to it.

    And once the effects filter down (pun intended :drunk: ) into the models, surely the effects will appear in a timeframe closer than FI, and FI will change markedly in response.

    Confused :blush:

    7&Y

    PS I like to think that FI really means Forecast Inconclusive!!

    Snow Watch: Midlands & C Southern England

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Right ready boys and girls. If you look at the fax chart for Monday ,youll see ive highlighted in red the 528 dam which is the general consensus for snow at sea level, [the whole of the uk is under that!] the lines in blue are bands of snow showers which could well give a good covering to many places later on Monday and any accumulations will drift in that bitter east north east wind.post-6830-1233411661_thumb.png The real fun and games start in the early hours of Tuesday morning with that low moving slowly north , you,ll notice with this second chart we are still under that 528 dam line ,and the area in Blue is where I expect the heaviest of the snow, perhaps up to 12 inches in some favoured spots with drifting as well. It all depends how far north and how fast that low pushes its fronts across our area. There is potential for severe wintry weather in these synoptics but the devil will be in the detail, last minute changes can make a massive difference. Thats my thoughts at the moment....post-6830-1233412142_thumb.png :):(:mellow::D

    My reading of the second fax chart is that the 528 dam has moved out of the uk and into the Atlantic. It also doesn't follow on along the South coast, but veers off the SW approaches and across towards N France, then back into the Atlantic, with that Atlantic being under it. We are between the 528 and 564 dam lines...

    7&Y

    Todays Weather And General Chat

    in Weather reports

    Posted

    A Good frost, temperature dipped to -3.6C, low cloud now moving in but frost still on the ground, no breeze.

    I think your thermometer must be 'race tuned'!!! :)

    Out here in the sticks in Churchdown, my thermometers recorded lows of just -1.7 & -1.6 :)

    Unless there are 'frost hollows' in Gloucester I don't know about...

    Cheers, 7&Y

    Politics And AGW/GW

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    ...<sigh>... Sorry, Iceberg. Dev claimed he wasn't being controlled. I suggested there were ways in which he was...nothing to do with AGW/GW per se, just putting up a suggestion that all is not necessarily as it would appear from 'freedom' point of view...

    7&Y

    I don't think it's control or controlled - leave those words for dictatorships imo. This is a a democracy, people can protest, people can vote. Indeed, people can put what they like in the bin, they just have to face the consequences. I don't think there is anyway 60 million people can all have every freedom they want, but I don't think that means we are 'controlled'. If it did, it would mean that we are controlled because we can flap our arms and fly - but some things just aren't possible.

    Thanks for your views, Dev, but I'll stop here as I'm in danger of going off topic...unless I can swing a political/AGW/GW angle :whistling:

    Cheers, 7&Y

    Global Cooling

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Also with regards extrapolating Co2 back until there is none in the atmosphere. Co2 is not the only greenhouse gas on the planet; if it were the main climate driver than maybe runaway cooling could occur if it was removed altogether; however if it is not the main climate driver then the effects of either removing it all together or increasing it exponentially are minimal, even taking into account possible feedback mechanisms.

    Yes, this was me...

    I was just making the point that the relationship between CO2 and temperature was not a Square law as was being suggested.

    After all, if all the CO2 were removed, I don't think this discussion would be relevant...for us, anyway :whistling:

    7&Y

    Politics And AGW/GW

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    So, you think you should be able to heave whatever you want into your bin without any controls?

    I'm afraid, short of anarchy, there will, in a society of millions, have to be rules. To see that as a problem is to my mind very odd.

    ahh.. - no, Dev, what I sought to say is that though we don't like the idea of being controlled, most of the time we have to be, for the very reason you give. But, after all, it was you who claimed to be not controlled. What you cite here is where control and desire go in the same direction, so there is no conflict, and you don't feel 'controlled'.

    Believe me, I know people who do think just that - they can't be bothered, and do 'heave' whatever they want into their bin!

    7&Y

    Politics And AGW/GW

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    What is?

    I don't feel controlled, never have - because I'm not.

    ...but you do have to pay the 'green taxes', pay the 'Congestion Charge' in London (and soon other major cities). In some places, what you put in what bin is heavily controlled, to the point of being fined by the Local Authority. Indeed, there have been a number of court cases over this very issue...

    I could go on, but I think you get the idea... :whistling:

    I think the point being made is that we seldom have a choice as to whether we are controlled or not, and it's sometimes ever so subtle...

    7&Y

    Global Cooling

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    I don't pretend to understand the physics of it, I'm afraid. But all else being equal, with CO2 levels at 560ppm we would expect the temp to be ~1c warmer than it was at pre-industrial levels of 280ppm. A further increase to 1120ppm would mean ~2c warmer and so on. However there are additonal feedbacks which will increase temps more than this (like warmer temps mean more ice melt, affecting insolation etc) and this is where the IPCC get their much higher temp rise calculations from.

    Ahem, I'm sorry, but this assertion doesn't work. Extrapolating backwards, you're saying that with no CO2, we should only be a few degrees cooler? I think not. We would freeze to death!!

    As has been said, the correlation between CO2 and Temperature is not linear, nor a square law (as you claim), but something more like modified logarithmic, so your claim that every doubling of CO2 will create an extra degree of temperature rise doesn't hold, I'm afraid :rolleyes:

    Cheers, 7&Y

    Satsigs

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I'd like to propose the BLAST. This would define a forecast of fabulous snow and cold weather just outside the reliable timeframe.

    You would use it thus - The models are having a BLAST tonight - or - when is that BLASTed snow going to arrive...

    7&Y

    Satsigs

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by 7andY

    This is the best one:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/wiltshire/content/ima...gallery.shtml?7

    "Cars were stuck in the road as the snow was too deep to move them."

    Ahh, I see your mistake. You have to look to the metaphysical to answer this one, in that the snow was too preoccupied (deep) in Meditation to move the cars on its own, and the people would have to do it for themselves, or they would remain stuck.

    Blimey, can't some people see the bleedin' obvious? :blush:

    7&Y

    PS How about OONs of optimism??

    January CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I think it's fair to say that Pershore is a notable frost hollow, lying in the Vale of Evesham.

    As to the others, Rothamsted, near me, is at the foot of the Chilterns but not a frost pocket. Stonyhurst, on the Lancashire Plain, is I imagine too high up (if such a thing is possible) and certainly too flat to record very low temperatures.

    Last time I looked, the Vale of Evesham was flat and wide - that's why it's called a Vale and not a Valley!!

    If Pershore is in a frost hollow, then so are places like York, Gloucester, London, Peterborough, Newport (Wales) etc etc - they're all in wide flat river valleys... :winky:

    7&Y

    December 2008 Weather Records

    in Weather reports

    Posted · Edited by 7andY

    Churchdown, Gloucestershire:

    Averages\Extremes for the month of December 2008

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Average temperature = 3.6 °C

    Average humidity = 85 %

    Average dewpoint = 1.3 °C

    Average barometer = 1013.6 hPa

    Average windspeed = 1.4 mph

    Average gustspeed = 2.8 mph

    Average direction = 237 ° (WSW)

    Rainfall for month = 37.4 mm

    Rainfall for year = 766.6 mm

    Maximum rain per minute = 0.5 mm on day 13 at time 05:05

    Maximum temperature = 12.9 °C on day 20 at time 12:54

    Minimum temperature = -5.0 °C on day 31 at time 00:44

    Maximum humidity = 91 % on day 22 at time 09:44

    Minimum humidity = 72 % on day 26 at time 14:06

    Maximum pressure = 1034.1 mb on day 26 at time 23:27

    Minimum pressure = 972.2 mb on day 04 at time 06:47

    Maximum windspeed = 17.3 mph from 113 °(ESE) on day 13 at time 01:27

    Maximum gust speed = 27.6 mph from 113 °(ESE) on day 13 at time 01:27

    Maximum heat index = 12.9 °C on day 20 at time 12:54

    Frost days= 16

    Ice days= 1

    -----------------------------------

    Daily rain totals

    -----------------------------------

    02.0 mm on day 2

    06.1 mm on day 4

    00.5 mm on day 7

    03.6 mm on day 8

    00.5 mm on day 10

    03.1 mm on day 12

    19.1 mm on day 13

    00.5 mm on day 14

    01.0 mm on day 16

    01.0 mm on day 18

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