[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

7 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

Hands up who broke the GFS…?

Hopefully the run is so cold it's frozen

[First Ground and Air Frost Watch Season 2021-22]

First frosts across a good swathe of the south last night. Benson -1.8, Shobdon -1.1, even my local station of Northolt recorded 0.1. A lovely nip in the air this morning and blue sky to boot.

[SE, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 5th Sept 21 onwards]

Absolutely hoobling it down with rain in N14. Glad I'm not driving anywhere.

[Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Oh well, there we are.....

If it's going to be mild we might as well break some records. Mildest winter on record goes all the way back to 1868-69. Mildest January 1916. Mildest February 1779! Surely one of those has to go some time soon?

[October 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

5 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Based on this mornings EC I think we will be heading for a mild end to the month but not enough for things to be record breaking.

I can see a final CET of around 12.5C after corrections.

Any higher than 12.5C would put it in the all time top ten. Seven out of the top ten Octobers have occurred since 1995 which is a remarkable stat especially when you consider that the equivalent number for May is zero.

That is after the 7th warmest September so potentially two top ten months in a row.

Warmest autumn on record was 2006 with 12.63C, so with Sept at 15.9 and Oct at 12.5, November would have to be 9.5 or higher to beat that record. That is top 3 or 4 territory but you never know.

[Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

I will add that long range forecasting is far from my forte! But you can't argue with current output. 

The minimum temperature anomaly for the last few months must be exceptionally high, it's been such a struggle to even get cool nights, let alone cold ones.

Given all the record cold minima in April it feels like a weird kind of payback.

[Model output discussion 11th July onwards]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Possibly.  What interests me is this is the first time since I started model watching that we’re approaching winter after a long period (months) of a very meridional jet.  I know some have said the last time was 2010.  If at some period during (late) winter we are to see a period of really zonal flow - off the Atlantic for UK, to get there we may presumably have to get there via a 4 wave or 3 wave pattern which could be very blocked and stuck, and if so, will that coincide with the early part of winter?  We will see…

Forgive the ignorance of a total newbie (well have been lurking for a while)... but interested by this concept and what it may mean for the winter - is there any objective measure of how meridional the jet has been over the last few months? I know the last few months have been exceptionally unwindy - is that any good as a proxy?