sukayuonsensnow
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Posts posted by sukayuonsensnow
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Happy new year all!
As much as I would like to see a cold, snowy spell, I will also take a week (or more) of dry chilly days and frosty nights. I've had enough of seeing rain for a while.
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2.7c and 67mm please.
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Trend for Thursday's low to be further south. At this rate southerners will have to hope for a Thames streamer event as winds veer easterly on the northern flank of the low. Especially if the low deepens.
Beginning to wonder if this low will affect the UK at all away from rain in the far southwest.
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Unless we get another 2013/2014 style Winter, hopefully Mother Nature will balance out and we will end up with a drier than average Winter (otherwise we will need to build an ark). Most of the UK have already seen more than enough rain recently.
By that logic frost and fog will be a common occurrence over the Winter, not sure what that would mean for snow tbh. The only thing getting my hopes up is how early Winter has begun in Scandinavia and the other Nordic countries.
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Noticing a trend in some models for a dramatic change further into next week, from very warm temperatures for October (challenging date records) to much cooler temperatures (below average for the time of year widely). A late taste of summer followed by an early taste of winter? (More so further north of course)
Going to be a shock to the system if this occurs through next week towards mid month.
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Would love a cold January, but being in southern UK that is wishful thinking.
With March it depends on how early in the month the cold spell is. Just like September is capable of notable summer weather (like recently), March is capable of notable winter weather.
A few people I have seen noting parallels between this year's weather and 2009. And we know how that year ended. And pattern matching worked out for me last year when I knew from late summer that December would be chilly/cold, and a good amount of December ended up being that way, due to the similarities between last year's weather and 1976.
If this autumn we get a drier than average September for much of the UK away from the northwest, followed by a very wet November, then I guess we will see what happens in December. September 2009 did have some warm spells in England too (nowhere near as warm as this September though).
My gut at the moment is I can't see December this year being a 'close to average' month. It will go above average temperature wise or below. Rainfall amounts less certain.
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One thing I have noticed from several of the recent GFS model runs.
After the warm up (how much so still TBD) early next week, there has been a trend for a cool or very cool period towards the end of August. On the GFS 12 for example it has some parts of the UK struggling to make double figures Celsius on some days. Perhaps a mix of northwesterly winds and the orientation of a low pressure later next week in C/S England.
Of course this is likely FI, but it is possible that we could have both our warmest and coolest days of the summer before the month is out.
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Rain attempting to transition to sleet here on the NE Hants/Surrey/Berkshire border. Not expecting much at all here mind you.
Good luck to those of you further north, some of you might at least get a covering of snow.
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Rain attempting to transition to sleet here on the NE Hants/Surrey/Berkshire border. Not expecting much at all mind you.
Good luck to areas further north in the region this morning.
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3 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
This is still showing the very cold air in Siberia, with lows of around -60C at the minimum. Also the temps over the Ice pack have fallen back to an average around -30C. But the cold seems to be locked in over Asia and doesn't want to extend into the Pacific very quickly.
On that note, has anyone seen the forecasts for E/NE Asia over the next few days? Perhaps record breaking cold for some including in China.
Mohe in northernmost China deep into the -50s Celsius next few nights. Not sure I've ever seen a BBC forecast temperatures that low. (Also potentially record breaking cold in other northeastern parts of China (including Harbin), Korean Peninsula and notable cold/snow for Japan)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2035730
That depth of cold may influence things downstream with the jet stream also, which may throw things off like the cold spell in N America did in the run-up to Christmas to the weather patterns in Europe.
Something to watch also.
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Interesting model viewing.
My only concern right now is that this is starting to remind me of Christmas last year a little too much. Some promising model runs (for cold/snow) and uncertainty, only to end up milder with rain, and very mild for New Year.
Keep a level head on this especially if you aren't based in C/N Scotland.
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Would be great for some if this verified. I expect snow lovers in the Pennines to be dancing in the snow on Christmas Eve!
Only concern is that with each GFS run the colder air returning seems to get pushed back.
Just something to be cautious about going into further model runs in the next few days.
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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:
All knife edge stuff this,...somewhere in the UK could have a snow event around the festive period,...one to watch.
It's possible. Most likely in northern parts and especially over high ground but not exclusively.
For the southern half of the UK its a long shot.
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My gut is that much of next week will be unsettled, and after a very mild start, temperatures returning to near or just a little above average in the south, perhaps colder in the north. Most of any precipitation rain away from Scotland/mainly northern hills where there could be some wintry showers/hill snow.
A colder, drier interlude for Christmas....? Any snow probably on coasts or northern hills if any. A question as to how cold but either way I can't see much snow being likely for the majority of the UK.
Best case scenario is we get an unsettled period like late December 2009 where we see a milder wetter period away from northernmost UK, before very cold air spreads south again by New Year or a little after. But that's an optimistic scenario and way too early to be sure of that of course.
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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:
Boxing day battleground anyone,...bring it forward a day
Arctic cold v Atlantic. A different definition of Boxing Day.
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GFS 12 looks like a repeat of what we just got. (Which is better than the usual mild and wet weather I guess)
Also I don't take snowfall amounts too literally when a northerly occurs on GFS especially if it's 5 days or more after. Usually near the time they got watered down.
Parts of Scotland could have a very notable cold/snowy spell with the tiniest mild blip on Monday.
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2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:
U.K. met has the precip over London pivoting all the way back west by morning and showers all day - it’ll interesting if that happens
That would be curious especially for areas along the M4 corridor that fell through the cracks with snow during today.
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Watching that pivot to see if the heavier snow will make it as far west as where I am. Think I'm too far west but watching it closely.
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Anyone here based in the hills just north or northwest of Brighton/Shoreham-by-Sea? Some intense snow seems to be over you at the moment going by the radar......
Around the Steyning area
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That Blob of yellow on the radar near Stroud has to be one of the most localised snowstorms I've ever seen.......
Would be a forecasting nightmare to get a snow event like that right for an area so specific.
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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
You’ll note that this run is south of the last run
looks like a typical gfs run by run correction to me (not entirely dismissed yet)
Would be a nice little snowfall for us but could end up being in northern France instead.
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1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:
Very frustrating. Its so rare to see snow down here and when the radar suggests snow and nothing is falling its very annoying.
According to the radar you should be having 50p snowflakes fall in your location at the moment. Unless it just hasn't arrived yet.
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1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
The Met Office have more snow symbols for my location
Same here. Not sure how much snow we will get as it will be a nowcast event. Could range from no snow to 10cms depending on if we get lucky with heavy precipitation. Could also be that localised that one of us gets a dusting and the other gets a significant covering.
Radar watching looks like being the main forecasting tool over weather apps today it seems.
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1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:
Exciting evening coming up
Plenty of radar watching
❄🌨
Yup any snow is a nowcast event and may vary from town to town even.........
Some may get lucky with 10cm+ while others get barely a dusting.....
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I'm looking forward to a break from any rain to be honest. 1-2 weeks of sunny, crisp frosty weather I am fine with.
I don't see the UK on the cusp of a cold, snowy spell at the moment to be honest. Looking at the models in recent days it looks like at least a week or so of dry, chilly weather for most, with a few rogue wintry showers (likely rain/sleet/graupel away from high ground) for some eastern areas.
If there is any significant snowfall at all this month it will likely be much later in the month, and even then I wouldn't place all my bets on it.
Still there is a lot of winter left and given how cold it has been just across the North Sea recently it would be unlucky for the UK to miss at least a memorable cold/snowy spell between now and the end of February.