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Northern Lurker

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

    You would be better placed living in Tromso (Norway) for such a weather pattern.

    Indeed, preferably with no access to the internet! Having watched the current pattern evolve since late December it's remarkable how well the models have counted down to 15th January. It's anyone's guess how long it lasts or how much snow there will be, but you can't have snow without the cold uppers... You can bet your bottom dollar that if there was a lot of precipitation shown but uppers were marginal the same individuals would be saying that there was no hope etc. 

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    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    To me it seems the EC has done some backtracking, while the GFS is toning down the longevity and depth of cold of the northerly

    Glad to see a pro summarise what I suspect 99% of readers here have witnessed over the last few days. GFS was first on the scene with a cold plunge mid last week, ECM wanted nothing to do with it at first but has now changed its tune & backtracked towards the sentiment of GFS.

    I find the pro ECM narrative from Met4Cast bizarre & out of keeping with previous winters on here, all of the models get predictions wrong, so just call it as it is? They are only weather models & as far as I'm aware nobody wins on here wins any prizes for which one is best? 

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    Far north and northeast of England weather discussion

    in Far Nth and NE of England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The APERGE & GEM 3 hour accumulated rainfall (snowfall) charts are encouraging for Mon afternoon through to Wed morning, APRRGE in particular shows a 24 hour streamer of decent intensity over the North East... a significant improvement from what it showed this morning! 
     

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Metcheck.com - GEM Pressure & Rainfall Charts - 6-144hr Forecast

    WWW.METCHECK.COM
    Metcheck.com - GEM Pressure & Rainfall Charts - 6-240hr Forecast.

     

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