Chrisover93
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Posts posted by Chrisover93
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19 minutes ago, kumquat said:
If you were to tell me back in October we'd be seeing charts like this mid-January at T96, I'd bite your hand off.
That is something I think we all forget about and we are in jan, southern England saw a great snow event in 2018 march if Wednesday doesn’t come off which I really am on the fence now leaning towards it but if not then the winter is here for a while
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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
Ec 96- northward she rolls !!
What I anticipated big flip then she starts to settle
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11 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:
This has piqued my interest
I was fully expecting it to go the other way tonight and even miss the south coast altogether. Still in the game and something to chase.Yeah not going to lie bro I’ve been telling twitter all day that it’ll swing back it just didn’t make any sense to me the way they all were showing the goods and then 12 hours later it was gone infact after I watched the met office yesterday they saw something different and anticipated the change and change again
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51 minutes ago, Harveyslugger said:
I agree
No we didn’t southern coastal counties haven’t seen snow since 2018
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10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
LP in Atlantic bigger and a little further north , hopingfully on its way to dump some snow - slightly better looking set up too - so maybe a win win
Won’t be in the north east though buddy
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Just now, WINTRY WALES said:
Very disappointing those in the South and towards midlands are missing out on the battleground set up for mid-week next week.
dont get many chances for a big dumping and its heading in to France it seems now
How is this even a bad thing if it came in on a north extent the cold would be gone but now the cold is in and everyone has a chance no just you
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Southwards shift was also going to happen the system could go even further south
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2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:
Midlands still
south of M4 soon turns to rain
It won’t get that far it’ll be weaker aswell as we get closer to the time
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1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:
That low has shifted by a good 200-300 miles and it's much flatter too! Interesting run coming up for sure..
Wow what’s going on!
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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:
That ECM run is horrific. Everything fell into place in the wrong way.
Highly unlikely that everything would so perfectly wrong like that.
I agree bud it just doesn’t look right in fact currently what’s happening models are going from one extreme to the other it’s weird to be honestly but really we are a bit of that yet with that said we have been here before things change in a dime and that’s what the weather turns out to be
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16 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
Unfortunately the GFS 06z det really goes off on one in the extended!
literally
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6 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:
That will be correct, its the usual North/South split its been model for a few days to be fair the higher the elevation the more chance of snow.
It’s not being modelled one model brings them south and other models takes it north
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4 minutes ago, Cambrian said:
12z ECM ensemble mean for days 6-10 paints the picture of a classical battleground setup. The challenge from the southwest is repelled by means of the low over the Azores ultimately being absorbed into the base of the Scandinavian PV driven trough, with the mild air making little progress - mean, anomalies and mean T850s.
In the same way that the pole has relinquished one chunk of the PV to Siberia and ultimately Europe, there are signs by day 10 that the Canadian lobe is getting pulled southeastward through Newfoundland, the build of heights over the Pacific side of the Arctic maintaining the anomalous forcing of the Northern Hemisphere winter cold towards the North Atlantic and Northern Europe, with a further battle being set up for the ensuing days for the UK and Ireland.
This is the solution that looks the cleanest to me everyone stays cold and water around falls as snow
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6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
what a snowfest deep FI, love the trend, lows attacking from the SW, looks like this brings less cold air in after the blizzard, but just pure fun at 240
Yeah that’s true but does that south coast see any snow if not the. Ideally not everyone is happy
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2 minutes ago, GokouD said:
How do I end up with none?
Bin this run!
Keep this run let the southerns have there time
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Wtf is going on
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1 minute ago, IDO said:
The Met Office deep dive on YT suggests what most of us have interpreted from the recent model runs. The low(s) arriving from the Azores interact with cold air over the UK on late Tuesday and the possibility of a snowline over the UK. Looking at Manchester North on their graph, they advise low confidence in the sweet spot.
This ties in with the general trend: cold moving south from the weekend and possibly a snow event mid-week. After that is where it gets even trickier! Indeed, the web update does not suggest that the GFS outlook is their best guess. It suggests an Atlantic high/ridge, which I am unsure what makes them think; maybe cold zonal with an NW to SE diving jet is feasible.
We wait for D8-10 to be resolved before I take that seriously.
Manchester north is absolutely awful
we want it from the south coast
we deserve an event
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2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
The most interesting aspect of the MetO update is the complete lack of the word "rain" across the entire forecast period, "snow and sleet" featuring a few times. This suggests to me that they are not making much of any 'milder' incursions.
Either way, unsurprisingly they are not in camp GFS but very much favouring the EPS/UKM/MOGREPS blend & probably GloSea6.
Agree met office are going for the cold for sure
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36 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
UKMO is holding out because it’s the correct outcome
read John holmes post above , that’s a confidence booster and likely the METO Deep dive later will be similar
Yeah in fairness I think John is hitting the button with this one here I just don’t see the Atlantic just walking back in the cold weather would have been here over a week by then also
42 minutes ago, johnholmes said:Tuesday 9 th Jan
NOAA 6-10==15-19th, in other words inside the approximate date of ‘deep’ cold predicted some time ago.the 6-10 chart keeps the meridional flow across the chart, the shape is not the classic one but no signal for a developing mobile Atlantic, not on the 8-14 really. As usual the high +ve anomaly is much reduced but this is normal. IF this persists and the upstream becomes less conducive to another trough-ridge downstream then a change could be signalled but not so far and the 8-14 takes us to 17-23rd Jan?
ECMWF has never been as +ve about the deep cold scenario and its latest output for 15-19 Jan is pretty similar. The 850’s show the -5C extending during the period to cover all of the UK by the 15th then it is moved north again so that by the 19th is is predicted be N Wales to about the Wash area. This as the 500 flow backs more west or even south of west with time.
UK Met of course only shows surface and 500MB outputs for 3 days (13-15 th) but it looks to be on the same page for just prior to the two above from the 15 th. Ridge dominated both 500 and surface, over/just NW of the UK to a more trough dominated by the end of its run, again surface and upper air.
So overall then, after a temporary slight warming at the surface and height, over the weekend a deeper colder spell seem likely to occur. The direction of flow, initially, being N’ly not E’ly. Looking on Extra at the skew-T diagrams, the colder air seems to start arriving over Doncaster by 14 Jan and much colder air continues to advect into the area from a N’ly direction as far as the run goes=T+180. All the time with limited convection, to around 6000 ft. So even well inland it is ‘possible’ for snow to fall. This is way ahead of any reliability from the synoptic models so patience is needed as to just what will happen over the UK regarding snowfall. Be that from showers and any possible troughs in the flow or from the Atlantic trying to move in giving more general ppn.
To me it seems unlikely that milder air is unlikely to make much, if any, real progress against the cold airmass in the period under discussion on this post.
All really interesting though to see just how the actual weather will turn out.
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3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
These lows tend to trend further south so I would expect models to occasionally barrel them through and bring in mild weather quickly but the reality will likely be a much slower transition. I.E more than 1 attempt to bring in milder weather with the potential for multiple snow events. Again though, where that boundary lies wont be known for a while.
It's possible northern areas will remain in cold air throughout (mentioned this in the above quoted tweet)
Indeed! Fully expecting that which is why I'm not entirely buying the modelling around the 17th at the moment bringing those lows in, suspect it'll be more delayed than that. (though, it doesn't ALWAYS trend south as you say, not something we can 100% rely on!)
Thank you really informative never go wrong when asking you question
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1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:
It's far too early to look at that kind of detail, the polar boundary will still be shifting 100-200 miles across varying runs & modelling until we start getting to much shorter lead times.
The risk is there but naturally the further south you are the more likely you are to see transient snow events vs all snow events, that's just the way it often goes. A decent channel/N France runner though could deliver even to the south coast so.. in short, potentially, but also potentially not.
For an experienced forecaster like yourself I’m still learning things but what do you see the scenario looking like for your next experience?
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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Honestly it really hasn’t you can see how uncertain it is we must wait for a completely set of data before we pass judgement because some models are south and some are north