TomB
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Posts posted by TomB
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1 hour ago, MKN said:
Hopefully this week has acted as a learning curve to alot of a I assume fairly new followers of the various model outputs. In the UK away from Scotland, charts showing cold and snow at 120-200 odd hours away are just pure fantasy. Unless the charts which are showing cold and snow are within +48 to +72 they are far from reliable. It's one area that even after all the years of model development they simply are not that good at getting right. I Mentioned the same at the start of the week incase people assume I'm just saying it now. Anyway fingers crossed for one or two surprises and if not this week there's still a good 6 weeks left for another chance to come along.
It is however the model thread, not the T-72 model thread. Conscientious and knowledgeable posters have been commenting on the output as shown. Not ‘what always happens’.
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15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Some very strange comments in here this morning, the narrative in here lately is that there's nothing showing on models, then when something does 'it won't verify anyway', what is the point reading the thread ever then??!!
As someone with very limited understanding of the models I have noticed the same thing. It is quite confusing.
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23 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:
I certainly don't raise my hopes up on a pub run lol
Why do they run it if it’s rubbish?
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1 hour ago, Mucka said:
All the wealthiest industrialists and corporate heads and global elite in the World didn't suddenly have an epiphany, become moral, and get down with Gaea Earth overnight. they found a way to make themselves self appointed arbiters of truth and dictate how we should live with less freedom and less wealth and less independence while they live in opulence and rule over us.
Yes by ignoring climate change and not adapting in any way. Just maintaining a veneer of interest while carrying on as they always have.
They have doomed us all in the pursuit of power and wealth.
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1 hour ago, Snowonder said:
Can anyone in Bedford area confirm thunder snow. I’m sure I saw lightning and a rumble!
I'm in the Ickwell/Northill area and haven't heard that so far.
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4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
Stuie latest fax at 36 hours is a beaut for central north mids throughout tomorrow!is that further south than this mornings 00z update for same time?!!
If only it could drop another 50 miles south for me! Hope as many as possible get lucky though.
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Is there still room for change for the weekend from what the models show now? Thanks.
I will be at Glastonbury
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23 minutes ago, LRD said:
Relatively significant event IMBY. Barton Rovers FC have lost a little stand that would have taken some knocking over. That's about 10 miles to my south. Still some significant gusts out there. Squally showers too
So, definite impacts but, equally, not quite the event that some models thought it might have been. Seems to me that the worst effects were on the south coast and around the M4 corridor
Looking forward, I wonder if we'll have some more days like this in the next fortnight or so. It looks unsettled and turbulent until at least the end of the month. In the past week or so, though, we have seen the other, angry face of what has been, basically, an extended autumn since August... after we experienced the dull, benign side last month
I’m just west of Biggleswade, it had calmed down but has picked up again in the last 30 mins.
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Just now, bluearmy said:
Just a bit of fun Tom ……many many years of the unending chase for snow !
Indeed Blue, for the vast majority it is fun! Having been reading the forum for a decade or so it’s clear that a vast majority would be more than happy with a day or three out in the snow. There’s little unhealthy in that.
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6 hours ago, knocker said:
I'm not sure it's helpful for people to pander to these unhealthy cravings
What’s unhealthy about wanting to see a few days or a week of cold weather?
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2 minutes ago, markyo said:
No rain, light winds, decent sunshine, i honestly can't see what there is to moan about, its useable and not stopping any outside activity!
If it kills your garden there is plenty to complain about. Just got my perennial’s coming back, going to try and get some of them covered today.
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1 minute ago, Alderc said:
I got absolutely slated yesterday for suggesting the gfs which at the time was showing a breakdown by Thursday (which backed by its ensembles) now off course its showing a outcome so extreme in 10days time Polar Bears could walk across the North Sea without getting their paws wet GFS is again everyone’s favourite, offering the ‘viable’ solution....I spy double standards...
Isn’t it to do with context? Didn’t the GFS pick up on this cold spell first before being inconsistent? Whereas now with the very cold surface conditions we shall have by the weekend meant the speed with which it shifted the cold away seemed unlikely.
I’m new to this so could be totally wrong but that’s how I read It.
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1 minute ago, Snowonder said:
Some big wet flakes mixed with the rain now in Bedford. At least it is something.
Got some big flakes mixed in as well at Sandy.
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1 minute ago, James1979 said:
Well, well, well its snowing in St Neots again!!
I’m just south of you at Sandy. Hopefully it’s on it’s way.
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41 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:
It is quite funny to read it all to be fair. It happens every time on there.
You’re doing that thing you do, again.
As a rank amateur who is selective over whose posts I take on board and also trying cut through the emotion. Would it be fair to say that while the models currently show problems that would scupper any cold spell, there is also still plenty of possibilities for snow in the next 10 days?
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44 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:
I think maybe this was aimed at me and perhaps a few others but I’ll take the bullet for it.
Yes this did used to be an excellent forum, full of good information and advice. However what we’ve seen this last four or five years is perhaps too much information available and not enough knowledge to process it. After last nights 18z I cringed when I saw posts with “Boom”, “In the bag” and “nailed” etc etc etc. Nothing in meteorology is ‘nailed’ until you actually see it fall out of the sky, and these are the kind of posts that I’m aiming my criticism at. It’s in no way helpful to people trying to find their way around the world of weather, and of course the backlash that followed when it all went wrong was in a large extent down to posts like these.
All I can say is thank god there was no Internet and weather forums when I was learning about meteorology. If there had been I’d have probably given up and taken up another hobby. All my learning was done from books written by experienced meteorologists and ‘nailed’ was certainly never mentioned in any of them.
Excitement at a possible upcoming cold spell is perfectly understandable, but many of those comments last night were not helpful, not educational and sometimes downright misleading. I just hope we all learnt at least something from this debacle and perhaps the moderators will remove the less helpful ones in future.
kind regards and good evening.While I agree with you that posts shouldn’t be misleading for the most part they have been a result of enthusiasm being met with crushing disappointment. I don’t think that justifies the reactions.
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5 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:
Yes! And also, as I have said a few times a minimum age requirement of 21 thus eliminating the children/ teens and allowing mature, adult (even potentially post-grad) people to post.
I believe there has been young man posting in the model thread who is way under your requirement who is knowledgable and enthusiastic. You’d be rid of him?
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Been lurking on here for about a decade but have been compelled to sign up because of what I’ve seen today.
First off, by and large the forum is excellent and filled with informative, helpful people attempting to untangle a science that still has so many gaps in our understanding or even trying to fit together that which we do know. I feel like I’ve learnt a lot without having scratched the surface and I’m constantly in awe of those who can put so many different pieces together to arrive at a coherent view. I thank many of you for that.
However the sniping, arrogance and crowing over the last couple of pages here is distasteful. Those implying an immaturity in posters seem to lack some perspective on how their own crowing appears when read by someone else.
People have their bias and have theirs hopes, sometimes this might go to far in to the analysis they’re attempting to give but I don’t see any malice in it, the same, unfortunately, can’t be said for those who take so much pleasure in see those hopes fail.
it’s a shame, and the forum is a poorer place for it.
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Model banter and emotions
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Drifter I live in England. We don't get much snow. I'll take anything.