[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

ECM no where near though unfortunately 

Further north than previous run though 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Question regarding some of the changes with how north the low goes. With the 12z GFS it’s looking more north than previously. My question is how much do these things tend to correct run to run? For example, let’s say that low went high enough for midlands to get snow, would we see each model run pushing it further and further north or would one run just change it completely?

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

Just now, goosey007 said:

1mm is 1cm

Ah yes that’s what I meant. No idea why I put 10cm, thank you. 

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

6 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

Is the conversation rate of precipitation around 1mm of rain for 10cm snow?

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

All the stories in here from 82 are fantastic. Wasn’t born to see that so would love us to have that this year, as unlikely as that is!

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

10 minutes ago, danthetan said:

If anyone remembers the big snowfall of 1982 I don't wasn't born, but here are the archive charts from wetterzentrale. In my village people lost their cars in the drifts and a local farmer even lost his tractor. But you can see how far the mild air has to penetrate the cold for good dumping. You can on this event it stalled and the cold air won. Ive attached how it all started on the 5th until the 8th the cold air won and headed back south.

Did the 1982 event originate in the East as this one is do you know?

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

Just now, mattrout92 said:

The hashed lines represents snowfall , and the unhashed blocks are rainfall ?

Thanks so much. Still a while a way but that's potentially exciting

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

2 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

It seems all routes lead to snow for us in Wales. I've a very good feeling about next week

This is likely a very stupid question but what is the difference between the colour in a block and the stripy one?

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Do we think the potential snow from the east would make it all the way to the left?

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

A day later and the gaps are filled

South West Wales/England seem to miss out on the fun here unfortunately

[Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion]

Over in the model thread.. there's a lot of hype with the GFS 12z run for historic snow in the UK. South West Wales looks to miss out with anything substantial. Hopefully we can grab a decent drop considering the rest of the UK seems to be!

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Is there potential in these models of a historic cold spell? Something in line with some of the famous winters of past?

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

Does anyone remember how some previous cold spells such as 2018, 2010 etc were reflected in the models? Were they consistent across the board at this stage or were there inconsistencies as there are now?

 

Separately, how does what the cold models now are showing compare to some of the famous cold spells from previous years 1987, 60s etc?

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

Comparison of last 4 runs. Outside chance that it could clash with the rain if the trend continues? 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

Low looks like it's creeping south on the latest run.. Could it turn some of this stormy rain in the South Wales/England into snow if its drops further south?