[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

2 hours ago, Alderc said:

It doesn’t last long and is accompanied by a humid airmass indicating lots of cloud and weakening frontal activity. The run ends poorly with HP developing well out west leaving the UK open to further polar maritimes. We are still a very long way off from sustained average temps let alone anything better.

Thanks Eeyore 

[Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

I don't mind cool summers, 24c by day 10c at night low humidity........

That's called a warm Summer round here

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Immediate outlook, more of the same, high pressure dominating the scene, pleasant Spring weather for all, plenty of sunshine away from far east. Average temperatures by day, a little above in western parts, a bit cooler in the east. Still cold at night with threat of frost.

Into the last week of the month, a change forecast to generally cloudier skies, perhaps showery outbreaks and some light rain in parts of the north as we pick up a cooler NE flow again, heights moving to the NW.

Longer term, unclear where things may end up, GFS wants to scrub out heights to our NW and replace with the typical lower height development pressure, heights building to the south instead and a more normal westerly flow, wetter and cloudier conditions north and west, milder and drier in the south and east, and more importantly we pull in much more humid and milder uppers, much milder nights.

 

Plenty of sunshine IN this bit of the Far East too. 

Another very frosty morning this morning - temperature briefly touched -3c on my journey to work this morning, fantastic in the sunrise and as white on the bushes as the coldest Winter morning in those spots.

And definitely a nip in the air even in the day in this part of the world, along with the beautiful wall-to-wall sunshine.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Have you had visible frost there? There has been very little here. The only frost I could see first thing this morning was on the car windows. Such dry air.

Yes, the sea breeze drops out each night and there has been a frost every morning since I don't know when, except yesterday when it was misty. 

But true, nothing visible on grass today only on cars in exposed spots which were covered. Whereas it was really thick / icy last week and weekend though similar daytime temperatures to this week.

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Can someone explain what's with the dewpoints? Fascinating looking at them on Meteociel.

e.g.

Leeming air temperature at 15.48: 15c

Leeming dp at 15.48: -11c

Leeming 'anomaly': 26c

Loftus air temperature: 12.2c

Loftus dp: -14.1c

Loftus anomaly: 26.3c

 

Are such huge differences common / normal? (I've not looked at dew points before this year)

And. . . really ignorant question coming up I know. . .  if the dp is so low, how come the frost still melts in the shade?

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - March 2021 onwards]

Families understand one another inately with not much said, don't they?

Anyway, to keep Hairy happy:

Any pics, PLEASE?

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - March 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

Whiteout conditions here currently. Probably a better snaw fall than February's ❄❄??

Any pics?

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

36 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all!

Hope you all had a good Easter!

Great to see/read all the snow reports throughout the regional threads this morning! 

Snow/wintry showers risk again tomorrow - could pop up just about anywhere!

Tuesday 12:00

 

15:00

 

Keep an eye on the UK all time lowest daily maximum temperature record for April - current figure to beat is -1.1C, 01/04/1917, Durham and Macclesfield.

That is under threat! Aviemore, Dalwhinnie and Braemar could all get very close tomorrow! (All places have official Met Office stations)

Looking further ahead to the weekend.

Friday 15:00

  
 

UKMO for Saturday:

 

Chilly outlook at the moment! 

All the best to you all!

Loch Glascarnoch and Balmoral probably also strong contenders. 

 

Altnaharra probably a bit of a stretch due to its lower altitude and, perhaps, relative proximity to the Northern coast - though otherwise in the sweet spot of the low uppers/coldest air mass etc.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

53 minutes ago, Griff said:

Morning all, here's  a few from the GFS and UKMO... 

 

Ooh, whisper it quietly but we're tiptoeing into the 'reliable' timeframe now.

 

It's tantalisingly not quite in reach, yet nearly time to ask "Will it be cold with -8/-10 uppers and some transient snow even in Southern UK? - or will it be historically cold with -14/-15 uppers and snow that actually sits there in most low level parts of the UK?"

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

10 hours ago, Empire Of Snow said:

18z has no significant changes. Quite similar to 12z until 174h but the difference is that it's setting up a direct reload at 180h. 

Boo, was hoping it would have reverted to colder again after the blip on the 12z. The signals are for the worst of all worlds, cold and unsettled in April but no white stuff.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Northolt is interesting because it was 1.2c at 6am - surely quite a thick frost - and 23.3c at 2pm, probably higher still 3-4pm.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

24 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Daily temperature record thats stood since 1927 appears to have gone, twas 23.9, 24c recorded at Hillingdon?

24.2c at St. James Park 2pm, not sure what it was at 3pm.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Well at least it looks as though we’ve escaped through the majority of Easter weekend without it being stupidly cold however it does look as though the writing is on the wall from Easter Monday onwards. GEM, UKMO @ t144 singing from GFS’s daft northerly hymn sheet. Just need to hope it doesn’t get locked in for ages like on the GFS with several reinforcing lows piling down from the north right through into the middle of April, utter misery! 

Tend to disagree, let's have PROPER cold with snow lying for days and not melting - otherwise what's the point, let's get on with Summer? Pretty charts alone don't do it for me, especially when they're not 'today's' and at T144 etc

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

47 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Enjoying the sunshine and working. Lovely spring day

Fantastic here too, 19deg on the coast - makes a world of difference when it's a Westerly based wind not a southerly or easterly with their freezing on shore winds, especially this time of year with the low SSTs.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Does the lack of contributions suddenly mean that the 6z models were terrible for coldies, or just that everyone's enjoying the higher temperatures outdoors today?

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Forgive us if we don't get too excited until the predicted Aprigeddon cold is inside T96, regardless of how many models are showing it in FI.

 

Plus as others have commented, something a bit more concretely cold south of Lincolnshire/Derbyshire would be nice to see, too.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I reckon you and I must be the only posters, who would rather have our skulls trepanned, than have to endure some of the cold, miserable weather conditions, being touted on here!

It's not that. Many of us would much prefer real Spring warmth with lots of sunshine. But if we're not going to get it, or anything else particularly interesting, then we might as well have REAL cold if it's going to be cold.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

29 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

It could well point towards a more thundery summer, with more severe longer lasting storms. After a colder winter, I would guess there's a higher chance of more unstable air masses, with chilly air still lingering and crashing into warmer air. Maybe that's why summer 1982 was so thundery, following the cold winter of 1981/82, and possibly why summers of 1981 and 80 were stormy.

However last summer did see an increase in thundery activity, despite some hit and miss affairs.

Has it been a colder winter than average then, when all's said and done?

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Yes there seems to be a fairly good signal for the upper high centre to drift SE. So hopefully not too many days with the cold N Sea wind and possible misty low cloud conditions.

Unless you live on the East coast itself, in which case the chilly south or S-E winds will continue to feel bitter, with or without sea mist!

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

Interesting to see the perpetual teasing cold charts in FI 10-14 days away.

 

And, as usual, there they perpetually stay - in FI - whilst our 'real' weather remains, week by week, decidedly ordinary, notwithstanding its usual variations of settled and unsettled. 

 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

7 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Think everybody wanted an easterly and a NW/N just doesn't cut it.

Nah, North-North-Westerly's much better  for some of our locations. So not everybody

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

11 hours ago, phil nw. said:

The trend to building heights over the continent and the UK again showing on the ecm run with a weaker Atlantic as the troughing recedes.So a drier period showing next week especially further south and east with temperatures looking to return towards average by day 10 as pressure builds.

ECM mean hts anomalies days 5 and10

Nothing yet to suggest any quick return to notable cold.We may see some night frosts under any favourably located mid-latitude high but at the moment there's no suggestion of any Arctic located block.

It's looking more and more likely to be after month end for anything to appear on that horizon going by the gefs.anomalies.

For coldies there's little to cling on to in the models generally this evening only Just a suggestion that a block around the uk develops with the possibility of  ridging further north in week 2.

The Atlantic jet looks much weaker by then so whether we see anything develop from there we will have to see in future runs.

 

Thanks for the doses of sanity / reality. There's no realistic prediction of a cold spell, though obviously in FI things can change a lot. Personally, if we're not going to have a proper cold spell, I do hope we get a proper early dose of warmth, 20deg would go down a treat.

Not quite sure why some on here get sentimental about that as if what happens in a brief February/March spell in 2021 is a definite predictor that the world has been irreversibly overheated or something. We could end up having a cool Summer after this! More extremes don't necessarily mean more warming, though it might indicate more storminess as the norm.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

14 hours ago, Don said:

At least if nothing else, the models are perhaps backing away from the very mild/warm scenarios next week?

And you think that's good?

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

1 minute ago, Stravaiger said:

I’m with Don...completely understand the variability we can be prone to at this time of year, but the parameters have shifted in favour of warmth.

You would never expect to get temperatures above 22C in the UK in February, it wouldn’t really have been considered climatically possible 50 years ago.

It relies on exceptional, anomalous warmth being there to our south for unusual post-SSW Synoptics to draw north.

Well yes, we may be slightly more prone to huge temperature (and other) variations, than a few decades ago. But in both directions, not just warm - plus, don't forget how much accurate recording of temperature and other variables has increased steadily over the last 150 years+.

February temperature in excess of 20deg is no indicator we're suddenly heading towards a non-temperate climate.

Large parts of the USA have had such temperature variations and bigger for years, including coastal locations like New York.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

3 hours ago, jules216 said:

Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me under cold side of the High Pressure with mainly N to NW winds.With fresh snowfall Frost and sun will be plenty.Best spell of Weather since January 2017. EC monthly is a dream,settled and cold the spring after March 8th. How it looks here today this morning(-21.5C 50cm+Snow)

 

 

Green with envy!