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Smokeone

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Posts posted by Smokeone

    Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Smokeone

    Been cloudy here all day, 600-800ft cloud bases a few sunny spells. But I’m happy with that it’s warm and got the weekend to look forward to even if it’s partly cloudy I’ll still be happy. Still think it will be mostly sunny even on the coast here this weekend. It’s all a forecast up until it happens, weather will do whatever it wants. A least we got rid of that chill we had most of May so it could be a lot worse.

    Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Smokeone

    55 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    BBC forecast is depressing, almost no sun today, tomorrow even Saturday looking sketchy for sun. This is why the UK climate is just one of the worst, even under high pressure is delivers rubbish conditions time and time again.

    You are definitely king of this thread not sure I have seen you say anything positive this summer so far. Try be more positive otherwise you will end up with high blood pressure  looks like the sun is already trying to break through here. Looking at the SAT24 it seems it’s breaking up in the SW as well. We she’ll see what today brings. I’ll be surprised if it didn’t break a bit more before your 2pm estimate.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    Anyone doubting the convective potential of next weeks potential easterly think again, just for fun look at what ECM shows for Tuesday 5th january with just -4 / -5 uppers..

    And I believe that the precipitation packing in from the North Sea would be all snow, due to the relatively short distance the air is tracking over the North Sea!

    20201228203729-7fbfdb300816fa254d055fa6fb224d2d27831d1f.png

     

    With a warmer then normal North Sea I thought it would be mostly rain on the coast and a little bit inland. Surely you would need lower uppers to be safer for snow.

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/09/2020 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Smokeone

    29 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    I’m learning GEM is actually right up there with EC, UKMO and GFS up to 120h in fact I think it was the most accurate model recently. 
     

    Don’t discount it  

     

    From Matt H on Twitter re GEM short range, not related to our region just highlighting GEM as a worthwhile model.

    57826D24-917C-4B67-A471-7DC3351134A3.thumb.png.7c066d95c25f30fcad7f0fa8dda8e716.png

    Thanks for the info. Been a while since I have been on here checking charts again. Nice to hear GEM is doing well in the short range. 48 hours to go, hopefully it’s near the GEM then. EURO4 having none of it yet. Also worries me it will go to far south, does happen a lot of the time. Hopefully get a better idea tomorrow, but as always it will most likely be a nowcast radar watch.

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/09/2020 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

    Same here on the iow we are doomed 

     I’m gutted we are just too warm n mild down here we need the perfect setup unfortunately and it hasn’t happened for a few years now! 

    Same here. I can’t get much closer to the sea so that don’t help, plus the winds coming from the sea add to the mix. Changes to north wind later. The waiting carry’s on.

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    A lot of peopoe that do post live up North though and you have to factor that in. It doesnt have to be a snowy spell all the way to the south coast for it to be considered a good period of winter weather.

    Compared to a December average this is an historicaloy significant piece of winter weather which has only just started.

    Its not going to warm up in the next 2 or 3 weeks. Its only going to get colder as further bouts of amplification kick into gear and then we have events in the strat.

    You cant downplay the start to this winter its been fascinating and is only going to get more and more newsworthy. Playing it down is your perogative and your entitled to but i wont be taking any notice of that because myself including most on here know what is lurking by the passing week

    A lot of people also are from the south that post on here. But I am very enjoying all the posts on here at the moment including yours. Keep it up. 

    • Like 2

    South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 17th Januray 2013, 12z Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Hi GTLTW, this is what I found puzzling about the MetO weather warnings, they are normally at pains to exclude the coastal strip if there is any uncertainty about if it'll be rain or snow, so I was trying to fathom the reason for their confidence!

    As I mentioned, they seem to be putting their faith in colder air being drawn in from France on the strengthening SE flow, OR it could be that as the frontal zone approaches with a triple-point LP forming, then winds across our area will turn ENE, maybe even NE thus bringing us a land track, rather than a sea fetch.

    But to answer your question, I shall be very surprised if immediate coasts from the IOW westward get anything but rain. But it is so finely balanced. A few miles inland it could be a different story.

    I notice on the latest surface obs from the N French coast, although the temps are above freezing, the dewpoints are sub-zero, so as the gradient increases, there may be less chance for the air to pick up heat from the Channel.

    I shall be watching temps closely throughout the evening to see how things change. But I am not getting too excited until I actually see the snow!!

    Thanks OMM its good to see you in here, i hope you will be here later in the night. Looks very interesting

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