Staffmoorlands
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Posts posted by Staffmoorlands
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Think I am on the only one looking forward to a bit of sunshine and hot weather!
Its currently cool and wet here in north Staffordshire so I can’t wait for 27c and sunshine this coming Sunday
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GFS 18z suggests a cloudy Tuesday now and slightly less heat but still hot
33-34c tops
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4 minutes ago, weirpig said:
ECM has areas over 100 f. For Tuesday.
And rain
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6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
Don't expect detail for next Sunday and Monday yet. The models were wrong about today only yesterday. Wasn't meant to be cloudy today.
Fax charts are your best option for the detail. They have correctly showed the front and associated cloud and rain for a number of days.
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Light clouds and spotty rain. Warm at 20c
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Met office not promoting much heat for us in the north midlands this week
Wed 19c
Thur 18c
Fri 20c
Sat 24c
Sun 28c
Mon 31c
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ECM and UKMO not showing any record heat this morning. In fact the UKMO suggests a cloudy weekend whilst the ECM has rain pushing in on Tuesday.
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Back to normal summer by 192hrs
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Looks a bit iffy on both ECM & UKMO this evening with more cloud and potentially a few showers over the weekend and in to early next week. Still hot in any sunshine
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5 minutes ago, SunnyPlease said:
That UKMO is an outliner, and a wild one at that. I would be very surprised if there was much in the way of cloud, much less rain. UKMO is often poor at longer range and it's fairly common to see it forecast temps that are at least 10c lower than what materializes. I would trust the ECM and GFS much more.
Trust the GFS over the UKMO - LOL
UKMO - suggests cloud and then rain/showers pushing north and east from the south west during Sunday. It will still be warm but tempeatures topping out in the high 20's.
Will be interesting to see the ECM shortly
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7 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
With that heat warning out maybe we should expect some extreme heat to be shown on the 12zs and notch up the levels again?!!met office seem pretty confident!!!!
Met office have described it as low probability.
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2 minutes ago, seb said:
Well we have the first amber warning for extreme heat in history….
Amber warning along with a forecast of 27c here
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Cloudy here but warm and muggy - 26c
Not expecting much in the way of sunshine now until Thursday
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Met office have just updated their week ahead forecast on social media - certainly no need to close schools this week
I would imagine most on here have been to school in much warmer weather.
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10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
You are taking raw data as gospel far too much here- I don't believe Tuesday will only reach 23C- certainly not inland where I live. I also don't see how Thursday is going to max out at 18C- even the BBC have 20C here and they are usually too conservative a few days out. Last week we were struggling to get above 18C here with the persistent cloud- so not 'as you were'.
You're also overlooking the fact that today has been upgraded- hardly a cloud today and we could reach 25C in Manchester. Tomorrow is also showing 29C here now as well- a genuinely hot day by anyone's definition and hotter than anything we had in June here.
The FAX charts show a cold front pushing cloud and cooler temperatures from Tuesday and straggling the southern half of the country by Wednesday. This will certainly suppress temperatures for a large part of the UK.
Temperatures will rise and sunshine returns later in the week.
I always read the Fax charts - they show the detail.
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Unsettled ECM. Make the most of the next few days as from Tuesday clouds will increase and temperatures will drop off especially north of the midlands which is reflected in recent Met forecasts.
Some signs of a heat spike next weekend but likely to be short lived with potential showers.
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2 hours ago, TheOgre said:
Stunning period of weather coming up
At least a week of sunshine and heat, which is unlike a normal one day wonder when if you blink you’ll miss it!
Not for the north midlands including Derbyshire. After Monday clouds will increase and temperatures will return to normal to slightly above.
A chance of some warmer weather next weekend but that is a long way off
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Once again looking at raw output doesn’t give the full picture. From Tuesday, we see increasing clouds and generally more unsettled conditions especially north of Birmingham. Temperatures 21-23c.
Probably a good week to holiday in the south for us northern folk.
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Cloudy again this morning. Couple of sunny days ahead before the clouds return midweek
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And this FAX chart shows why those in the North are a little disappointed so far
Sunday
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Fax charts for Tuesday suggest another hot day but the Atlantic influence not too far away. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
NW breeze again, so means starting very grey exposed to the gap, been awful last week or so with NW breeze
Yes, cool and cloudy start here and across the Peak District
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14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Dreadful runs this morning for the North West. Barely squeezing one day of warm weather before the cool Atlantic returns.
Talk of record breaking temperatures are pure fantasy.
I said this yesterday - it was very clear that a change was on its way from next Tuesday/Wednesday.
Still looks decent for the south and temperatures likely to hit 32c for a time.
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1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:
Wait, you guys are taking a GFS precip chart 5+ days ahead seriously? Come on, I know it's not what you want to see but.... it's the GFS precip charts
Met office have already picked up on the rain - check the forecast for Glasgow for next Tuesday - rain.
Summer 2022 Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
It was only 4 years ago that we were seeing record lows - remember the beast from the east in 2018.