High Altitude
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Posts posted by High Altitude
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10 minutes ago, Snowman31 said:
When does the solar energy reduce enough do we think?
It's Early February and is below freezing with no sun after a frosty night and the snow still doesn't settle. That's why I love snow in December /January.
I think it’s more to do with the rate of precipitation. We’ve only had light snow here or flurries blowing about in the wind and although temp is -0.5 and we had a dusting at night, in the day time it doesn’t really settle. Also have to factor in the urban heat island effect with temps hovering around zero. An example of this is my thermometer reads -0.5 at the back of my garden yet on a thermometer right outside the house window is registers +0.5, that whole degree makes a big difference at those margins. The cumulative effect of that with other houses giving out the same even more so. Three weeks ago on that Sunday the temp was 1.5 yet we had a good 5cm of settling snow in the daytime over 4 hours and dew points were higher...but the precipitation was moderate to heavy and it settled quick enough. Once the snow has settled this has the effect of reflecting of reflecting solar energy and keeping it cold at the surface. So really what we need is a good dumping
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11 minutes ago, Jason M said:
One of the slightly sad things about tech improving is that the complete surprise weather event is getting less and less. I remember in 81 snow moving in from the west and being forecast to turn to rain. I'll always remember the forecaster saying that the mild air was about to reach the east coast and looking out the window to see it hammering down with snow still. The front never did clear Essex and Kent and moved all the way back west the following day!! Because the charts are so good now room for this type of event is almost zero these days.
This is true. But the margin for error still seems to be 3/4 days. Small changes in that time frame can lead to a whole new pattern down stream. The default flow is west to east and the models always seem (from what I can see) to revert to that mind set. Even the meto revert to that after the immediate time frame. Always sit in the fence. I know I’m off topic do I’ll leave it there. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
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I don’t post often, but a long time lurker, going back to BBC snow watch days. Only thing I’ll add is that over the years, Dec 2010 as an example, once the cold is entrenched the break down is always delayed. Back in 2010 I remember the models breaking it down after 4/5 days, then it’s extended etc etc. In the end it lasted a month. Granted it wasn’t a snow fest every day, but the cold held out. As long as this spell evolves as shown then I’d be surprised to see any break down making it much further than skirting the south before cold reasserts itself. The models are always to quick to break cold spells down.
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What are the chances of exceeding a forecast like this, one of my all time favourites.......
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2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:Easterly, SE’ly, NW’ly will it won’t it....next run is crucial, winter is over until next decade, you were wrong, you are the bleaker.......guys and girls it matters little who calls what..have your view and let it evolve and move on....not getting Synoptics spot on isn’t failing.
10 hours ago I left Swansea to come home for a day to see my wife and son. Been in Swansea as my dad was poorly and been in hospital since before Xmas. I thought when I kissed him fairwell that I would be back to see him on Thursday. He passed away 2 hours ago...and I’m 200 miles away.......now THAT is failing......
I will be gone for a while...
BFTP
I don’t post in here often but even so I check in here religiously and have done so for over 15 years now and so in my own way I feel a connection with the community. On that note I just want to send my condolences to BFTP. My thoughts are with you at this trying time....and you didn’t fail anyone! When you’re ready I along with many others I’m sure will welcome return.
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It's funny but when snow is predicted I actually get butterflies in my stomach and generally feel like a little boy again. I don't know why. Always been the same since I can remember. I don't even need an alarm to wake me up, it's in built every two hours through the night my eyes spring open and I'm at the window - usually nothing but that excitment and the chase for me is what it's all about. Nice to know I'm not crazy alone.
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To my untrained eye those charts look the exactly the same. What to look for to indicate whether the system goes under or over?
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Virga; 'An observable streak or shaft.......'. I thought I'd logged on to the wrong forum for a second lol.
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Looks like Suffolk should have warnings for low flying cars....
I think it's a case of if the snow won't come to me...............
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After missing out again I just don't think I've got it in me for another week away snow chase, especially at this time of year. For me the fun of snow has always been in its rarity to these shores and the romanticism around the approaching christmas festive season, rural picture postcard scenes, short, cold and crisp days, mulled wine, log fires and the anticipation of what the coming winter might bring.
Snow at the end of March/Spring just doesn't conjure up any such connotations for me especially with the longer days and slush factor. I would much rather have warm, pleasant days, bird song and the smell of freshly cut grass at this time of year. My proper interest with snow will start again from around beginning of October.
The only exception to this would be an extreme record breaking snow event with significant accumulations and blizzards. Damp, wet and cold with randomness flurries just doesn't cut it for me, it's a bit like delaying the inevitable.
Now where's that radar...........
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as is we would have thought you meant anything else
Ha ha even more funny that there are no likes for the edit ;-)
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Only had the Jan spell deliver anything noteworthy here in the way of snow and looking at the winter as a whole I've certainly been more disappointed than not (from an IBMY point of view) so on that basis I won't be taking anything for granted until its either falling out of he sky or laying thick on th floor.
Although having said that I do appreciate the extent, rarity and extremity of some of the cold Synoptics that have come to fruition and weather experienced by some.
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This is what I've got just now:
Great song that. Nice break from model chasing.
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ITS A FAKE WEBSITE!! THEY MAKE FAKE STORIES FOR HUMOUR PURPOSES ONLY!
I know. It was meant to be in jest. Should have added a smilie. Maybe they beheaded it for going against the fifth amendment..........;-)
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Hi all got some bad news remember the groundhog in America predicting an early spring it has been punished for its false forcast.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/punxsutawney-phil-beheaded-for-inaccurate-predicti,31712/ America has to take thing too far
Quite civil for the yanks. Surprised they didn't burn all its off spring out of their burrows and gun em down with semi automatics.
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i saw that
its odd when you see 5-6 degrees and that is classed as a warm up
Especially for the end of March. I think average Jan temps are 7c so that really puts it into perspective. Also I always look at forecasted temps as the max expected. Can see these being progged down in the forecasts as we go though the week. By Sat we could be building snowmen.
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Jay Wynne BBC 10:30 Finishing Quote 'I don't think that slightly milder air will last'.
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Didn't expect much snow if any here in Greter NW London but hoped for a northward shift which unfortunately hasn't materialised. It's still disappointing when you're so close and especially when you've watched every run from +268 in anticipation. Its like reeling in a big fish that wiggles off the line as you're about to land it.
Still a chance of a streamer or some random showers off the North Sea drive in on the strong wind. Nothing to write home about thought think.
Pleased for all those further south.....Enjoy.
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im hoping to get some action tonight
That should keep you warm.....;-)
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Recorded 18c today and was only expecting 12-14 at best. Looks like solar influence was underplayed in the forecasts (TV). On that basis I think we may need -12 to -15 850's to have a chance of a prolonged snowy spell that doesn't melt. Obviously cloud cover will help to keep temps down but any higher and should we get snow it could readily turn to slush in the sun. Having said that if we can keep minus dew points then this should help moderate any potential melting.
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Lets play pin the shortwave on the donkey. I can't remember a cold spell they haven't spoiled and no doubt one will crop up in the models soon. How nice if for a change it would act in our favour.
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No one can control the weather, so even if the government tinkered with the models and put false data out that would achieve nothing IMHO. What will be will be. It's in the governments best interest to get people prepared for what ever happened, and save lives.
I would just like to add that I would in no way wish for either extreme as I fully appreciate the devastation that would entail should either scenario pan out.
I agree with your post in what Governments should do, but in such a situation where it would be impossible to relocate all the inhabitants of the Northern hemisphere, I doubt they would.
Having said that, with all the technology available, amateur meteorologists, cameras, internet and with so many people living all over the world it must surely be impossible to hide something of that magnitude whether they want to or not.
That's that then...........as you were lol
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An off topic question so I hope you guys/gals don't mind but I feel safer posting it here rather than be lambasted in the mod thread.
'After watching the mini ice age doc on the history chanel (that someone posted a link to) it got me thinking. If we were heading into a mini ice age or indeed significant warming akin to the medieval warm period would the powers at be cover it up? By that I mean would Governments conspire to hide the truth if this is possible by for example tinkering with the models, provide false data etc in order to prevent mass hysteria, at least until it was undeniable'?
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Good evening all, and its nice to see this forum is still up and running. I tip my hat to all of you from this region who keep the faith and make it worthwhile
.In between job hunting I have tried to download a couple of my weather related videos. I managed to get 2/3 of them onto You Tube, but haven't a clue how to post them here. Technophobe alert !!
Testing testing:
Hi BB54
That's was a fair fall and you're only down the road from me. When was that? 2010? You've got some great lampposts there by the way. Very bright and a lot of them in close proximity. I'm forever squinting looking at the dullest light where I am lol.
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South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards
in Regional
Posted
Moderate to Heavy here now. Nice flakes too. Starting to settle. Temp - 1.1