snowsure

Quite right SF. I have no time for people who look for an excuse when they have been found lacking. Keep anarchy at bay and fine SM the full amount!

Perhaps a poll would be the best way of remaining democratic regarding the revision of the December CET (Why do we have conflicting results anyway?) As to the future, I will continue guessing in the same way irrespective of the final source of the data set.

http://support.microsoft.com/kb/891090 Try the above link for a Microsoft Word viewer.

I forgive SF his little tirade as I feel that I must have hit a raw nerve. I will drop a plaster off next time I am snowed up in Hawes! Perhaps his glass is half-full? Pipe on SF! I don't mind one bit.

The signature appears to contain facts as seen by Stu; something that could easily be compiled by any member of this forum. It appears no different to the constant references by SF to WiB regarding his position. If one of them is sniping then aren't they both guilty? SF I have never read the Sun in my life so I do not know the type of quizzes that you refer to. You must happy to be better read than me! I prefer the Independent, FT or Sunday Times.

Replying to your tag of "Mild Ramper..." Stu, I would suggest that SF is over cautious in his assessments. Basic psychology would no doubt expose the reason behind this behaviour. Perhaps he wished too much as a child and got disappointed often? Final CET of 4.9C? Yet again I was 0.1 C out on the CET competition; this time I went for 4.8 C Am I a cold ramper or what!

Try highlighting the text first then select the size from the "Sizes" drop down menu.

Anything around 3.4 C would be my pitch this month.

How do you feel now about your comments SF? Has this December been rare and notable?

4.8 C Or, working to the required 5 sig figs that some people need, 4.8136 C Anorak firmly back on. Nov guess: 7.1 C What a track record!

And a bit different to what the mighty MO were saying in January http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6228765.stm

Nice pics Goatherd. I also got to see this with my own scope for the first time tonight. Very impressive it is too. The cloud is building now but, if you haven't seen it yet, get your binoculars out and go looking!

Is it possible to see real time weather observation data for the CET zone weather stations?

A magnificent, complete reply Chris. However, it makes me wonder why we haven't had similar brightenings from other comets that have coincided with a CME. I remain, despite your sterling efforts, open minded regarding this event.

Assuming that the comet is 2.5AU from the sun, how long would it have taken a CME to arrive there? I also wonder if the brightening event in 1892 was accompanied by a similar amount of solar activity. Seems more plausible than a meteroid/asteroid strike to me.

Thanks Nick. It looks like I made a mistake regarding the position of the HP on Friday. As such, there will not be much influence from continental Europe this week.

Didn't know that. I thought that the current interglacial, which started about 10,000 years ago, was due to end soon. Looking at the previous glacial periods, there appears to be no common pattern amonst them. So I wonder if the real truth is that we do not know when the next ice age wil start. Nothing quite like uncertainty to scare folk, is there. On a quick thought experiment; If there was a sudden reduction of the cryosphere and up sprung an abundance of plants, etc, wouldn't they remove lots of the CO2? If so, would this removal then cause a concentration correction that would then allow the climate to obey it's natural rhythms? I appreciate that the time-scales here would be geologically significant.

First of all, I know that it is Sunday and I am meant to be enjoying a self imposed internet ban. However, a little voice in my head, after watching the Countryfile forecast today, told me to check out the Forum discussions regarding this up-coming cold Thursday (bit too short to be described as a snap me-thinks!). I then looked at a site that I stumbled across about 1 month ago. A quick look at Hungary shows a weather warning for extreme low temperatures. My question is this: Is this a localised cooling or is it expected to spread? As I think I saw on the Countryfile forecast, we are to start experiencing Easterly winds from the end of next week.

Time to see if the ringing in my ears is yet another alarm bell or tinnitus! Whilst considering one of SF's points about the sothern deflection of the jet stream, I stumbled upon this article from 2002. Interesting point by Michael Fish "...The Earth's climate at the moment should have been cooling. We were supposed to be on a cooling cycle but man's intervention has not only overridden that but completely reversed it..." So if it is warmer than the 30 year average but we should actually be cooling compared to the 30 year average then GW may be worse than I thought. What I would like to know is: How much cooler should the natural cycle be making us? How much, then, is the warming that we are experiencing? Assume that we are 4*C above the 30 year mean but we should be, say, 3*C below due to cooling then GW is adding 7*C, not 4*C. Anyone have any information regarding where we actually should be due to natural cycles? SS p.s. Is it too simplistic to assosciate the jet stream with the gulf stream as a cause-and-effect type system? If the Gulf stream diverted south, would the jet stream do likewise?

How tantalising, P3! I assume that climate prediction continues to work on time-scales of >12 months whereas weather forecasting is based on 3-5 days hence. The devil, as ever, is in the detail. If the wrong weather data is input into the climate model... I do understand that numerous (hundreds?) of models are converging on a similar outcome, thus the climatologists speak of their findings in an almost unified voice. Is there anything else that makes you say "...simple explanations..." ?

As at today, this illustrious site has a forecast for tomorrow, for Doncaster suggesting an average max temperature of 21*C (Updated using the 00Z Run on Thursday 11th October 04:43:00 GMT) The BBC forecast for the same day shows a max temp of 17*C. I assume that both parties are looking at the same models, etc so perhaps this shows why people do not trust the experts. Or perhaps I do not understand the system!

I am trying to compare the extent of GW in other countries with our warming. Has this been done yet? If not, how can SF (a contributor I have lots-of-time-for) say "Secondly, those previous instances of warming were not supported so widely around the globe." Is this a reference to the GMST?

Thanks JACKONE for your dealing with this. I certainly take your point that the slope is steeper with the 1770-2006 data due to the decrease in the number of <0*c days. Interesting to note that the regression co-efficient (r^2) has improved from 0.062 to 0.100. However, if r^2<0.5 I think that we are still talking about random data. Perhaps there is a better regression study that could be done on this data? However I do not have the expertise to confirm this. Once again, Thanks for answering my "request." SS

Do a "Life on Mars" type experiment if you can; Ignore the post 1989 data. Do a line of best fit based on the results up to 1989. See how it changes. The line cannot be extrapolated to accuratley predict the 1990-2006 data. Now stand at 1980. Based on what went before I would be very suprised by some of the "future" results of 1980 to 1990. I would also draw comparisons between 1910-1925 and 1990-2005. i.e. they both have a huge absence of ice days.

Can't edit the above post of mine so this is an addendum: Having looked at Sheffield (Here) I can confirm that the number of days with an air-frost has also decreased since 1957. The 5 year rolling average, 10 year rolling average and the raw data all confirm the point made by SF at the beginning. I, for one, am a little more despondent regarding the prospects for this coming winter.