[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Well @Chris.R your predictions went well for Isle of Man.  It started snowing over the hills at 7am and didn't stop yet. We've even had snow ploughs out clearing hill roads in the west of the island.  Cold rain/sleet all day at my elevation (300ft). Rain around all coasts. 5 or 6 of our highest roads (1200ft or above) were closed, 3 of those remain closed overnight. Amber weather warning for snow above 800ft finishes at 23.00hrs. 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 Chris.R thank you! Really will be interesting to see how close your predictions are!

Hope we all see some snow even if its in the distance on a hillside! 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 Chris.R that's fabulous forecast suggestions for lots of areas... fancy a try for the Isle of Man? Please? 

As an aside, our government's adverse weather committee has been activated to make decisions in light of our Met Office issuing an Amber warning for snow accumulations over 500ft. They take decisions on schools, public transport, and highways. 

[Warmest January day on record today, when will it turn colder again?]

Excellent discription of the MJO and its effects... this has helped me learn a lot today! 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

I don't normally moan but I'm feeling very sad this evening having had one of our bunnies die on route to the vet today.

I want to say, the model thread is forever stuck in the "hunt for cold" or "hunt for hot". It's a fluffing model thread for interpretation of the weather we can expect and yet so few are actually participating in attempting a forecast or interpretation and when they do they get shot by the "no you're wrong" brigade.  Yesterday a pro-forecaster put together a really "insightful" post only for others (mostly amateurs) to say ohhh you're wrong because they didn't like the conclusion of the interpretation!

Surely we should be learning from those who have the skill and expertise and experience in meteorology! 

Sorry rant over from a soggy damp foggy Isle of Man 

[General Volcanic Activity Thread!]

Live news feed here in English with video footage from coastguard helicopter., and responses from various sectors and various volcanology people. 

https://www.ruv.is/english/2023-12-18-eruption-on-reykjanes-peninsula-399922

How scary for residents and what a busy night to come for all the government and emergency response agencies. Eeeks. And a week before Christmas too... not good. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

2 hours ago, DaveF said:

This looks really nasty:

 

 

yes I'm going to be watching the evolution of this "storm" with interest. I live on that island under those severe winds!

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

12C driving home at 930pm rather mild for mid December.  

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Again I'll say, this isn't the old chase the cold thread. This is the model thread.

It appears my very amateurish eye that whilst there's no deep or lasting cold wintery weather projected, there is at least interesting weather in the next week... gales, rain or snow in the North, randomly mild in places in the Southerly flow... certainly the GEFS ensembles that I can see on the charts pages show my average 2m temperature next week at climatology average... so that's better than a lot of this year that's been way above! 

Tell us about what the models actually show for the reliable? 

I would estimate that FI is about 19th... so whilst following trends maybe useful, we don't actually know what the weather is going to be next weekend and for Christmas. 

Don't write off winter, in fact go outside tomorrow and enjoy the dry relatively mild day instead of panning in the internet models for Narnia. (Which if it happened you'd then might moan about 6 months later on how awful it was because it spoilt Christmas and caused travel and festivity chaos). 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

16 minutes ago, Rush2019 said:

Crosby currently on the wind gusts chart 60mph, St. bees and Blackpool there too.

Just a bit blowy in my location at the moment, sky dark but has a weird pink glow.

We make it onto that list twice! I guess the Isle of Man listing is on Snaefell (2,000ft) whereas ronaldsway is our airport at sea level.

[Storm Elin]

Blowing a hoolie here (Isle of Man) and lashing with rain. Barometer must have dropped as I now have a headache. Can hear the wind in the trees through closed windows. Forecast gale 9 gusts. Wild and not wooly! 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I do wonder if this thread has turned into the "hunt for cold" thread, as noone seems to be commenting on the large deep low (possible named storm) later this week?!  This amount of rain coupled with a thaw in some areas may lead to flooding, and high winds could cause more disruption.  

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

We had chaos earlier this morning with freezing rain. (Isle of Man). Thin layer of snow over the hilltops.  Current temp at 300asl 4C. 

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

Snowing on snaefell (Isle of man) right now. Frost has lingered in my grass all day, frozen birdbath all day. Max temp 4.5C. Last night's Min minus 1C. Lovely 1 December! 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

The BBC  reports that the overnight temperatures in Cumbria were the lowest for November for some years. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67564025

[Despite the supercomputing power, weather models can still get it wrong - even at short range]

@Nick F excellent article! 

[Storm Debi - 13 to 14th of November]

The curl of rain is just coming into Isle of Man now. It's soaking and gone very dark! 

[Storm Debi - 13 to 14th of November]

Does anyone have a satellite image of this storm? 

[Storm Debi - 13 to 14th of November]

1 hour ago, Jo Farrow said:

Red Ireland, amber Northern Ireland, Amber isle of Man.  Nasty Monday morning for County Down, Co. Armagh and Isle of Man

https://www.gov.im/weather/heavy-rain-severe-gales-coastal-overtopping/  

Warning type      Heavy rain/ severe gales/ coastal overtopping

"a deep area of low pressure (Storm Debi) will bring a period of severe gale or storm force southwest or westerly winds tomorrow morning, strongest between about 08:00 and midday. Gusts are likely of 60-70 mph, with a risk of 70-80 mph. This aspect of the forecast remains a little uncertain, but disruption to travel is likely and if strengths materialise nearer 80 mph then some damage will occur. Winds will then ease in the afternoon"

Other yellows, but NW England coast looks lively by lunchtime

Thanks for noting us here in the Isle of Man.  This looks horrid! I really hope everyone on my lovely little island stays safe tomorrow.  I wouldn't be surprised if a decision on schools is taken first thing at 7am. (At least til lunchtime to save the traffic during the worst of it). 

[General Volcanic Activity Thread!]

This thread is scary and yet fascinating.  Sometime back there was an eruption that caused issues with flights for UK and wider.  Could this one, if it happens? And could any large eruption have an effect on UK weather? I hope everyone remains safe... I would hate to hear of mass casualties from this natural emergency.  

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

Does anyone know what week starting bank holiday is going to be like? It's TT practice week! 

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

Running the precipitation forecast (sorry on Meto), this evening's wintery band is fragmented and misses most of my location completely. At one point it had looked like it was setting up a nice "Cheshire streamer" through Tuesday which often works for Isle of Man, but it now seems that it'll stream to far north for us! 

Grrr

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

Well it's been raining since about 2pm across the island, there was some sleet and snow at elevation... probably 200m plus... pretty sure it's all rain now though. Temperature didn't rise much above 3C all day, and is still hovering there at present. 

845pm now.. rain at 100m asl. Snow melt is slooooww! 

We took a walk through Watertrough Park, South Barrule (~240m asl)... to take in the snowy scenery before it is all washed away.

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

8 hours ago, StingJet said:

Amazing view of the Isle of Man this morning from the northern tip of the Isle of Anglesey , Isle of Man was in clear air and looked like a huge bank of Ice Bergs floating in the Irish Sea with a tinge of Orange as sunrise broke .. sorry no pics   ,, we had a couple cms here , nice to see everywhere white , rather than green and wet    School run was aborted , received an 11th hour text "Schools closed today due to adverse weather"  ...  hmm 

Government closed the schools here at 7am. Roads were closed, gritters and snowploughs out, powerlines and trees down. 

I'm at 100m asl (Willaston School/UCM, Douglas) and there's still lots of snow even on the edges of trees that hasn't melted (and has been in the glorious sun during the day).

Picture also attached to show current (after a day of warmth but mostly shade) depth of snow. 

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

Well as I posted overnight... lots of snow for parts of the island...

It's now 4.20pm and not that much has melted in the actually quite warm sun! 

From the morning to now images