BremX
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Posts posted by BremX
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Oh it's amazing how the "I told you so" brigade come out.
Even if things revert to mild and the potential colder weather doesn't materialise, there are no kudos to be given to people like that. We know the normal set up for this country, it takes a lot of things in place to get the sort of weather that most on here are chasing.
A lot of people with a lot more knowledge than I have looked at so many different factors and shown that there is a possibility that it could line up right for cold and wintery weather.
If it doesn't happen it's not their fault, it's just something else has overridden the other signals.
Looking at the charts today, personally I would say, given how much the models have flipped over the last week alone, by this time tomorrow, things could look totally different again.
GFS is always wanting to revert back to type, to overdo low pressure systems and basically mug us off.
ECM, while perhaps more steady, can be just as wrong.
Other models can show us nice charts, or bad charts depending on which ones we pick.
There is still a lot more runs to go, the cold is deepening on this initial northerly, which, whilst probably dry for most, is still winter weather.
Let's get the cold in and see what the models make of it after that.
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If this kind of set up comes off, it would sate my cold appetite enough to not be so desperate for the next 2 winters (maybe)
I haven't seen the gfs throw out that kind of plausible (i.e with other models and background signals backing it) FI for some Time.
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The morning runs are to wake and sober us up. Let's see what the rest of the days runs bring.
I sense a few more twists and turns to come.
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Awaiting the pub run with trepidation. Hoping it throws out a stonker.
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With my untrained eye, I look at it like this, the models often revert to default outputs when unsure what background factors and going change further down the line.
This is going to throw out some horrible runs and some very interesting ones.
It is also the reason for the ensembles and the means. To show the possibilities.
And as with everything, they can't all be right, but they can all be wrong!
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I get the feeling the models will throw out a couple of cracking runs in the next few days and get the excitement back.
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Not sure if this is allowed, but not sure this was modelled today for my area? I'll update if it actually starts snowing!
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I still feel the models underestimate the cold block, I always heard that warm doesn't push cold away, the cold moves away allowing the warm in.
Though I do imagine we will see a return of the drab westerly regime, I just hope it's only brief and the models pick up on something better to chase.
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I always get the downers when I see the charts flip, but there's no point in letting it get you down. It's part of the chase. In fact without the charts we don't want to see, there is no chase.
The models are always going to want to put us back in our usual weather cycles, we are here to chase the unusual. Besides, it's not even December yet, so let's just enjoy the ride!
I also just want to say a thank you to the many knowledgeable people on here that make every day a school day. It's nice to read people's thoughts on the models and contributing factors, because I generally have no idea about most of the charts!
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As much as the GFS was the first to pick up on potential cold, its the first to want to get rid of it.
Here's to hoping it's an outlier and the other models and ensembles keep going with cold.
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I think the GFS and other models will keep toying with the Atlantic coming back in, given its our predominant weather situation. As each run goes, hopefully they will keep pushing it away.
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I've always found the met offices penchant to err on the cautious side a little frustrating. Just say it's winter, anything can happen. Instead of being general buzzkils.
The models are looking decent, lots to figure out, but cold is definitely on the cards, how long for is and always will be the question.
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5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:
Nice to chase but futile if it never happens.
Indeed, but one day it will redeem itself and be right
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I'm going to say, all this gfs bashing (which it mostly deserves) is a tad deflating. At least its showing us something to chase. The ECM is very like the European Union, the slow and steady, doesn't want to put a foot wrong in case it looks silly, but could still end up doing so.
I just want cold to chase
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Looking at the seasonal models, which I always take with a pinch of salt, I will revert to a very good phrase for model watching. They can't all be right, but they can all be wrong.
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I was simply hoping this potential warmth was going to dry my lawn out so I can cut the damn jungle! Looks like it's not going to happen
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If I never hear IOD again it will be too soon
. To my untrained eye, there are many factors for winter, not all of them have to be right. Let's enjoy the next few months of model watching, fantasy island outputs and stop trying to pooh pooh winter before it's even begun 
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I know they say this is silly season for models given the tropical storms that can drastically affect the model output day to day, but this is just ridiculous now. Please weather models, just start picking up seasonal weather!!
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Snow is also notoriously difficult to forecast for the models. A lot of the time it's a nowcast rather than a forecast.
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The models may underestimate a cold block when it's in place, sometimes it's not as easy as it looks to shift the cold.
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GFS once again with a massive dartboard low, skewing the output massively.
Not sure where this is all going to lead, it's up for grabs which model ends up right.
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5 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:
It's not looking great for central Northern England. The showers on Tuesday don't look to be pushing in land and the frontal snow is too far south. Absolutely no snow here at all this Winter.
I know the feeling. I only tend to see snow here if its coming from the easy, the models keep hinting at some here but each run pushes it back.
I'd like to think that once the cold air is in, any rain its giving may fall as snow, or a shortwave appears and dumps some, but still clutching at straws.
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There are still plenty of runs needed to firm up even the next 4 to 5 days. I'm hopeful something shifts to give more snow around the Vale of York, though I'm rarely that lucky unless it comes from the east.
We can debate individual det runs till the cows come home, but it would be nice to see more cold incoming, these slider lows frustrate me. Yes it brings snow to those of you in the south, but I want it in the north!
Let's see where we are at after a few more runs. I don't want to see a brief cold snap followed by mild miserable dampness.
So far the 6z GFS is a decent start, ECM next run I would have more interest in than the early run. Bring it on!
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GFS with a other dartboard low. Hate those on the runs, skews the output massively. I think there are upgrades in the short term outlook. Much past 120 hours at a push is FI for me.
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Model discussion highlights
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Oh it's amazing how the "I told you so" brigade come out.
Even if things revert to mild and the potential colder weather doesn't materialise, there are no kudos to be given to people like that. We know the normal set up for this country, it takes a lot of things in place to get the sort of weather that most on here are chasing.
A lot of people with a lot more knowledge than I have looked at so many different factors and shown that there is a possibility that it could line up right for cold and wintery weather.
If it doesn't happen it's not their fault, it's just something else has overridden the other signals.
Looking at the charts today, personally I would say, given how much the models have flipped over the last week alone, by this time tomorrow, things could look totally different again.
GFS is always wanting to revert back to type, to overdo low pressure systems and basically mug us off.
ECM, while perhaps more steady, can be just as wrong.
Other models can show us nice charts, or bad charts depending on which ones we pick.
There is still a lot more runs to go, the cold is deepening on this initial northerly, which, whilst probably dry for most, is still winter weather.
Let's get the cold in and see what the models make of it after that.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5008227