[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

Valentine's Day is poised to be colder than Scandinavia right here in the UK, according to forecasters.

According to the met 1,500 mile wide snowstorm is to hit the country.

"The Met Office warns from February 11 to February 20: "Rainfall will be limited at first with a risk of some wintry showers in the north and east, with an increasing chance of rain in western and northwestern areas later. And it warns temperatures could be "colder" than average.

The worst of the weather is anticipated at the back end of this week and into next, with the middle of February looking like a bitingly cold one.

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

17 minutes ago, Beanz said:

This winter has nothing to do with what happened in September.  

I agree with you. Those saying that last years warm September had an effect on this years weather, are talking utter nonsense in my opinion.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

According to a BBC weather forecast yesterday. They said that WXCharts show that sub zero temperatures will be back on January 31 with heavy snow fall expected in the first week of February in the north.

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

49 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Hadley Cell has moved slightly northwards in the last 30 years + 1c increase in sea temps in the last 100yrs has an impact on NW Europe

I was reading an article lately regarding the Beaufort Gyre. They say that according to some researchers it is starting to give.  They are suggesting that combined with a solar minimum, future winters will make this winter seem like a golden age of tropical warmth.

An interesting take on things and worth considering as a possibility in my opinion.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

11 minutes ago, DCee said:

Same chance as this year (i.e. slim)

That's a ridiculous statement. There is no way on this earth that anyone can predict a year from now what the weather will be like.  It takes most experts all their time usually to get it right beyond 5 days. .

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Looks like we could get some snow flurries down the east coat on Thursday.

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

3 hours ago, georgiedre said:

Don't know about forcing but the moon has more ssay in our weather than people's think.. high moon during higher pressure can lead yo bulges in the layers above (I think that's what they said when I did science at school. ) and obviously it can affect the tides etc so that weather systems and winds can be stronger etc . Both of these are quite obvious and therefore cannot be discounted in forecasting the weather.  Or at least one of the drivers of meteorology.  Anyway who cares.. just bring us cold and snow now  

 

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

But apart from a few daft predictions, which are wrong more often than they're right, no one has yet produced any evidence. Unless, of course, one finds Piers Corbyn's deluded nonsense compelling? On balance, I'll stick with the models!

Well I used to think the same about Corbyn and his predictions, so  three years ago I decided to put my money where my mouth was, so to speak, and paid for his long range forecasts over a two year period, to see for myself just how accurate they were.  What I found was,  that although he wasn't 100 percent accurate, he was still far more accurate over that 2 year period than the met office or any of their models.

I have no idea how he does it or what his exact formula is but there is no denying in my honest opinion that his accuracy is uncanny but quite good overall.  Or at least it was during the two years that I experimented by paying for his forecasts.  I haven't since paid for one of his forecasts but I do occasionally look at the comments on their blog page on which there are some very interested theories and comments put forward by far more knowledgeable people than me.  Comments from Piers www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=846&c=5      

 Reading between the lines of one or two of their comments,  I get the impression that they are looking at some sort of change for the last 3rd of January onward.  It will be interesting to see just what does happen. If things do go against what all the models are currently saying , it will certainly pose a few interesting questions.

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

3 hours ago, Updated_Weather said:

Yeah don’t think that’s how it works.. 

On the contrary. There are many knowledgeable forecasters that think solar influences do have quite a large bearing on our weather systems. To dismiss the possibility out of hand would be foolish, ignorant and very shortsighted in my view. 

 I believe we will see more proof of this over the coming years.

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

 We have a full moon on the 17th some solar/lunar forcing, which models do not account for,  this may nudge the cold our way via activating the Atlantic.

We shall see.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022]

9 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Can I just say that those who keep saying that's there's nothing remotely cold showing or that there's little hope for the rest of this month to at least have a closer examination of the latest data!

I did say yesterday that if your gonna post comments and bring know charts to back up your thoughts,many are gonna be left confused as to what your seeing! And some are gonna think your merely on a wind up.

And for me it's completely foolish to say after a bad op run that doesn't show cold....(I told you so) trust me viewing every single frame of every operational run will eventually lead to confusion and agitation and that's when the bickering starts to manifest as some start to lose their heads!

But for me go check out the latest 6z ens up until day 8....theres very much a better signal for the main core of vortex to move East...with an increasing signal for amplification from the mid Atlantic and there's the chance of this nudging further North if this set up holds.

I think @Mike Poole made a very sensible call with how the models are dealing with this set up in his last post.

Chill folks its the Weekend...Yeh it not very nice out there currently but perhaps we could get colder next week than some originally thought with even some decent Frost thrown in for good measure.

Those people that keep saying there's nothing remotely cold showing or that there's little hope for the rest of this month, have a great deal still to learn in my opinion. It's almost impossible to say with any real certainty what will happen beyond 4 or 5 days at the moment as the situation appears to change so quickly.  Those that persist in making such long  range forecasts predictions are in my view, likely to end up with egg on their faces.

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

3 minutes ago, Yorkshirepudding said:

Very interesting few days for mostly the west of our region but not exclusively.
 

Tomorrow snow is expected on the leading edge of the front moving across west to east accumulations mainly on higher ground and perhaps some wet snow at lower levels, then a short mild period or should I say slightly milder moving in on the back edge although I will add the mild section is getting narrower on each run so something to keep an eye on. Then we enter the colder air again bringing snow showers Thursday night into Friday and throughout the day heaviest expected to the west of our region but some steamer or heavier bursts could make it a lot further east. So lots to like over the next 48 hours. I will add there could be some surprises with the warm Atlantic and Irish Sea when it comes to showers and streamers setting up along with evaporated cooling that could bring the snow level down, something to keep an eye on. then we look at later on in the month where some models are throwing out so eye candy. At over 10days out mind  

Yes you are right. There is quite a strong hint of a strong Northerly developing later next week,  one too watch for sure.  As I said the other day, those people in the main forum saying things like winter over etc. Are been ridiculously premature in making such rash statements,  and quite silly to say such things in my opinion when winter has only just begun.  Weather situations can and do change very quickly , they always have and always will do.   The bottom line is, weather will always end up making fools out of those that make rash long term predictions based solely on the current models.  There is far more to  our weather and a great deal that we simply don't understand.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022]

Just now, JBMWeatherForever said:

The GFS 12z has been brewing for a little while. The first of many. Seems many have become dispondent by the Christmas coldspell letdown, and now as a consequence many laugh as soon as another cold scenario starts to show itself. That's human nature, but mother nature always has the last laugh.  Severe cold spells often arrive at quite short notice, and the next such cold spell is probably going to arrive much sooner than some think.  Roll on 1947 !!!

I believe you are right.  I said something similar the other day. I'm old enough to remember cold snowy winters of long ago that came with little warning. Too many people put too much emphasis on model predictions 10 days out or more,  which in my opinion is totally pointless. 10 day weather models are at very best only 50 percent reliable.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022]

1 hour ago, FENDER. said:

 Very disappointing.   Prime time mid winter, and the January looks like a write off

It is only the 4th of January and you are writing it off. Ridiculous! I'm old enough to remember winters that had similar set ups to the present one and when in just a few days the whole outlook changed.

The same can happen now. There is so much going on up there and so much uncertainty that trying to forecast the weather for more than a few days ahead is pointless.

Most bad winters that I remember, started in mid January onward.  Even the winter of 63 which I remember so well, ( hence username) although it initially started just before Christmas, the worst, as I remember where I live in Yorkshire, was in January and February. I also remember it coming without much warning and just after a period of quite mundane sort of weather.

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

10 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

That actually provides the evidence that I have said all along - that it is very rare to get a cold winter after a notably warm September.  I have always thought that there is a bit of a link between a warm September and the following winter being mild or a small chance that it will be average, and virtually no chance of a colder than average winter to follow.  Whereas on the other hand I find that there is no evidence to suggest that the September theory works the other way round - many cool or average Septembers have been followed by an equal mix of winters.  I can also think of cold winters that have followed Septembers that were slightly above average rather than very warm (1978, 2009), and the warmest September that I can think of that led to a good winter for cold was 1985 (14.6).  I cannot think of any September with a CET of more than 14.6 that led to a good winter for cold.

Been in my mid 60s I've certainly seen a good few winters in my time including snowy ones and dry ones.   During that time I can also say that I remember some Septembers and Octobers been really mild but then followed with quite bad winters with some fair accumulations of snow.  The early 1970s and early 1980s spring to mind.  It was during those periods that we had one or two mild Septembers and also very mild Octobers, but were followed by some extreme snowy weather episodes, usually in January and February.    I simply see no evidence whatsoever of mild Septembers leading to mild winters. Its all pure coincidence if that happens in my honest opinion.     With regards to this January onward.  Things are changing at such short notice that it's almost impossible to say with any certainty what will happen beyond 5 days at the moment. Those that come on here saying silly things like "winter over" etc. Are just showing their lack of life experience where weather is concerned.  I believe there will be one or two surprises this month and next , especially for those coldies on here.  

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

29 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

12z takes the low Tuesday into France, so looks like we’ll get the cold air but not the precipitation.  

I wouldn't take too much notice of what is a slight downgrade, it will probably all change again by tomorrow. I said the other day when many people were downbeat and predicting mild weather for the foreseeable, that the outlook would be different by Friday the 31st.  Low and behold it did change. I believe there will be many twists and turns over the next few days and one or two surprises for coldies.

The GEM by the way has actually pushed the front further North. So we'll wait and see what happens.

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

4 hours ago, LeeSnowFan said:

Wet, Windy & Mild over the next 7-10 days oh excited (NOT)!!!!! 

 

cmon we want cold, snow, frost, it's winter! 

I wouldn't take that as gospel.  In my experience weather outlooks can and do change within 48 hours of been put out.  I suspect that what they are forecasting now won't be the same come Friday. There is a lot going on up there right now which is creating a lot of uncertainty even among the professionals.