[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

One word to describe the oz Gfs,,, borefest, the most interesting thing about it is the cold air glazing Eastern England for 24 hours later this wk. 

Oh and I suppose low pressure in southern Europe but nothing exciting at all

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

Erm I think this is gonna be one hard frustrating winter, it's a waiting game, into Feb we no can deliver easily under the right synoptics, yes stronger sun etc, but get sub - 5 850s with a channel low with a gentle easterly and it won't get above zero and will settle easily. 

I think I'm praying crypto will pay out by 2030 and il but a house in the alps as a get away! 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

3 hours ago, Downburst said:

The odd thing about January to me is even though its 31 days like most months it seems to go on and on. It's still a full two weeks before end of month. Normally that would mean we wouldn't really have  a clue what the weather would be like at the end of the month, but this year there is a  lack of momentum in the global circulation means we have a pretty good idea, but there are changes

Most recent EC 46 day shows the 500 hPa  High anomaly move west and lower pressure in the southern continent for first week of Feb

the previous run on Monday didn't show that low in the south

So there is a good chance first week of February will be a noticeable change with more wintriness in the north at least as its very possible to see a trough to our west and norther west digging in, and of course this could amplify between now and then to return to a normal period of mid winter at least. 

Right guys iv had an absolute mare with my old account and email address so iv set up a new account under a new email and added a number at the end so you know who I am

Ps I'm glad to be back its very frustrating not been able to get involved! Thankfully the mods are crap atm! 

Re the above chart, one thing iv noticed recently is the low anomaly in southern Europe, thats never a bad thing and will always be a must if we're to salvage anything in the second half of what so far is very rubbish winter! 

Let's hope the mods improve over the next few days, I enjoy the frost and fog so all not lost... 

See you tonight