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Storm Force

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    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Wednesday evening to Friday (and probably beyond) now solidly in the "snow risk" territory, with all models developing a few localised snow risks during the period. Unlikely to be snow for all, but we're now entering the stage where a very keen eye needs to be kept on where the weather features are going, because many locations could wake up to a snow forecast at very short notice.

    Exactly.  Gav mentioned this potential yesterday evening.  Plenty of instability in the unstable easterly flow.

     Therefore, plenty of opportunities for troughs to form.  Unfortunately, as usual in these types of setups the models are currently playing down the prescription.

    Later in the month there is the possibility of Stratospheric Warming.  PV looks to be under stress.  Let's wait and see.

     

    • Like 1

    Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Friday 9 Dec - Sunday 18 Dec

    It is expected to remain cold on Friday, with occasional showers especially in the north near the coasts, these likely falling as sleet or snow. Many inland areas will remain fine and dry, especially in the south. Into the weekend, conditions remain cold, with wintry showers mainly affecting windward coasts, any accumulations of snow away from northern Scotland likely confined to higher hills. Many inland areas could well stay fine and dry throughout although there will be some sharp overnight frosts along with the odd patch of freezing fog which could be slow to clear. Some bands of rain may push into the south after the weekend, possibly wintry, especially over higher ground. Temperatures remaining cold throughout with a chance of a short spell of very cold weather.

    Sunday 18 Dec - Sunday 1 Jan

    It remains very uncertain in the second half of December, but the signal for below average temperatures does weaken, especially in southern and western areas, where it could also be wetter and windier at times, with the north and east most likely to hold on to colder conditions for longest. Any transition between the cold and mild conditions would bring a risk of rain, with sleet and snow especially over the hills.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

     

    Have to wait and see.  Gav last on YouTube did mention that there will be many troughs developing next week.  Due to the unstable easterly flow.  Precipitation may will be of mark.  Hopefully, there could be a few nice surprises this week.  Ex tropical storm is one to watch for on Friday.  Unless it plunges south into Iberia.  ECM/GFS / ICON and Met are having different predictions on this.  

     

    3 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

    Looks interesting seems like there not to sure either what could happen with this rain coming from the west interesting they mention possibly wintry hopefully they upgrade more through the week from this 🤞

    Met sitting on the fence as always 

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Petorious said:

    Studying current live data, forecast models and even what the beeb are saying, I still feel like its knife edge close whether the central and east midlands will see anything. And at the end of the day I guess initiation can always be 50 miles out in either direction or extended from forecast.

    Definitely doesn't feel thundery in Dudley 

     

    6 minutes ago, Petorious said:

    Studying current live data, forecast models and even what the beeb are saying, I still feel like its knife edge close whether the central and east midlands will see anything. And at the end of the day I guess initiation can always be 50 miles out in either direction or extended from forecast.

     

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