smich

Could be the first eyewall replacement cycle. I wonder if it will be possible to see the eye enlarge on the sat loops? Steve M

Thanks for your thoughts Steve, your comments about a downgrade being too late to diminish the storm surge are a timely reminder - that even if we banned cars and CO2 worldwide tomorrow, it may still be too late to stop a cascading effect overwhelming our climate. We just don't know. Mind you, if we went to wind power, a CAT5 would produce enough electricity to last us all 10 years! btw, I'm stopping signing my posts "Steve M" in case I get confused with someone with consderably more knowledge than me! Smich

When she went thru the Florida Straights, she was barely big enough to straddle the gap. Look at her now - 48 hrs later, she virtually straddles the entire Gulf! Immense. Hurricane warnings will have been issued before the end of play today I think. I read "Isaac's Storm" recently, all about the 1900 Galveston event. Highly recommended. Smich

I think that, at peak intensity,the storms in the outer eye-wall draw the moisture from the inner eyewall so that it can't survive. It kind of evaporates, making the eye appear bigger for a while, until the outer wall grows inwards, "replacing" it. Smich

morning everyone! What did I miss while I was asleep dreaming of eyewall replacement cycles? I see pressure is down to 897! That must be low enough to make your ears ache! Smich

The loops are definately showing a turn northwards - this is certainly earlier than expected. Like kw says, such a big system will be wanting to spin northwards even more, and the nearer it is to NO at landfall... However, that would be a much shorter trip for Rita, so an eyewall cycle now might not leave enough time to re-build...? The eye certainly looks tiny now, but that's just because the storm itself has grown so much! Steve M

No, Mondy, I don't think she's annular yet. I think that title is reserved for at least cat 5 hurricanes. See kw's tutorial at the top of this sectionfor more info. I'm just wondering if it's possible? Especially when Katrina went thru so recently and presumably cooled the sst's little. Without being too alarmist, I'm a little worried that if Rita doesn't weaken at landfall having reached cat 5, then this could be the mother of all hurricanes. Looking at the sat pic, there's a LOT of warm water between her and Texas. Steve M

Jeezus :blink: Is it really possible to have two full on annular hurricanes on the trot??!!! I thought they were very rare. It'll be interesting to see what happens eye-wall replacement wise... I can't believe it's gone from a tropical storm to a cat4 in what - 18 hours?! Steve M

Well, after all that dilly-dallying, she went from cat1 to cat2 in about 3 hours! :blink: Suspect she will achieve cat3 in about 24-36hrs... Steve M

I was wondering why Rita seemed to have stalled a bit, but the NHC put this down to the "Afternoon Minimum Convective Period" so it all seems quite normal! B) I seriously wonder why this storm is not generating more warnings - those that can evacuate their homes in the target areas, should start now_ before the traffic jams start. Steve M

Looks to me like it's heading straight thru that corridor between Cuba and S Florida! It seems very large already, but I expect it will shed that convection to the E and "shrink" a little, intensifying all the time. This could be a very long thread Mondy! Steve M