snowray
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Posts posted by snowray
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Think it will come down to nowcasting to see how far east the sleet and snow will spread tomorrow morning as is moves S and SE across Wales and the Midlands ... the models are notorious for not handling areas of wintry ppn with great accuracy.
We had 10cm of wet snow here on the morning of 10th April 2006, though not likely to see that much tomorrow morning - lying snow over parts of the south and SE may not be out of the question:
Yes I remember that well, didn't settle around here but parts of Kent and Sussex got a dumping, very heavy and at times thundery snow...was just after Easter as well.
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Looks like the MetO have removed a lot of Western areas from Sundays warning map..
:o No way!?
And areas just North of London too!!!!
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This is what the GFS has been showing too, along with the BBC forecast, but as i mentioned earlier its only really when it heads south of the M4 corridoor that it spread eastward
Kris
Yes its a bit annoying realy, seems to clip South West of London then Surrey and Mid Kent. Might end up a bit further East though, never know, or possibly stay further West even, 20-40 miles will make a big difference!
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No you didn't miss much lol
Thought as much,and there was me thinking I was going to miss all the fun before I went away. Might get lucky this time....and we defo need lots of that in this part of Kent!
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A covering on Monday morning would be nice, 1st time since last winter I think around here, although was away Easter so not sure if there was much snow around this way.
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Well that classic spring weather for you, feels like summer one day then your back into thinking its winter just 24hrs later!
The benefit this time round is it does look like most of the more organised features will come through during the overnight hours. for example the GFS brings down a weak frontal feature and a trough behind it in the overnight hours.
I think the way to sum up this cold spell will be night-time showers/systems will likely be of snow whilst daytime will probably see a wintry mix...I myself have 1 eye on Sunday night...I'll explain why later.
Sunday night you say
, come on KW, spill the beans.... -
Just look at those hedgerows and tiny fields! Bet they're all great prairies now or been built on :lol: Lovely pictures.
Never mind March snow, there's been lying snow 3 or 4 times on my mother's birthday, the 2nd May, in Sussex too (although we used to live 700 ft asl) — I remember because she hates the stuff and would complain bitterly.
Same with my mum, absolutely hates snow, although she was born in Jan 1931 during a blizzard (a propper one)apparently.
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Better than nothing Matty, I should know cos I'v had zilch here!
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I have this picture of a colony of weather refugees somewhere in Canada, possibly to the north of Toronto in the snow belt area, where you could all emigrate and practice your religion in freedom in the new world.
It seems that the old world has rejected your beliefs and you face persecution there in the land without winter.
Lots of juicy summer thunderstorms too, you could just make sentimental visits back to the UK like I do, once every ten or twenty years.
I was thinking of my British weather friends today, overhearing some people talking in this little town we are visiting in central BC, it was snowing (again) and somebody was saying, "boy, this winter just doesn't know when to end, does it?"
Different paradigm altogether there.
Quite so Roger, you know I have been seriously thinking of moving to Canada, have relatives over there as it goes. I take it you are pleased that you made the move and there are no regrets...Certainly around London it has changed so much recently that its unrecognisable compated to just 5-10 years ago, let alone 20, and not for the better I may add!
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Well, it was another rubbish winter here. It averaged 5.9C (+1.4C), making it the 5th warmest in the last 25 years. It contained 10 air frosts compared to the long-term average of 18. Snow amounts were ridiculously low, with 3 days with it falling and only 1 day lying (6 days is average). Not to mention we had the first frostless January ever.
Using Mr Data's winter index, over the last 5 winters:
2003/04: 46
2004/05: 36
2005/06: 53
2006/07: 18
2007/08: 17
Marginally worse than last winter, says it all really.
Thought it was worse than last Winter which although it was pretty poor over all, managed to produce two small snowfalls round here, no snow events this Winter. So when did we last hit 100? And how high were the realy severe Winters of the past such as 47 and 63 I wonder.
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Yes it was more frosy thats true, recent winters have generally been so mobile that frosty conditions have been in short suply, particularly round these parts.
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In reverse order since WWII: 2007, 2000, 1994, 1991, 1989, 1985, 1984, 1980, 1979, 1978, 1977, 1975, 1967, 1966, 1961,
1960, 1959, 1957, 1952
Interesting, thats almost a third then.
Thanks to the now ever toasty North Atlantic the warmest March C.E.T on record 10C. -
Thanks John
Your updates are like waiting for the next instalment of a book.
Indeed, great stuff John, I await tonights installment with I feel could get even more interesting.
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Its not rocket science chaps, the Meto Radar has been showing localized showers around the country all day, if the temp at lower levels is below freezing, I imagine that there would be some snow flakes produced from these showers, not just hoar frost falling off treas, though shaking treas can be fun when they are covered in thick frost.
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Thats winds of 46mph.
Nice!
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I'l go for 5.7c....Just because I think Easter week might be colder than ave.
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Both the stations I quoted have records going back several decades but I only have figures from the mid seventies. There are some with records going back a long way, some only recently and others that are no longer in existence. Unfortunately snow lying and falling stats are not published as a matter of course by the Met Office and can be quite difficult to get hold of. I have found generally there are more stats up here on the internet as there have been many surveys done for the Scottish Office, Executive and Local Authorities. However if you e-mail the met o from the link in their web site I have found that they are very helpful in providing information about snow as long as it is not fto be used for commercial purposes.
In general the early to mid seventies were not snowy and there were a lot of mild and less snowy winters between the wars earlier last century.
Interesting, Might just try emailing the Met Office and see what response I get. Cheers.
Edit: By the way just got some pictures sent to my phone from gardens around Romney in South Kent proving that even the Fushias are in bloom down there, thought they were a June thing?
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Looked at my post from last night and without the benefit of a few large glasses of wine I see the figures quoted just look a bit of a mess. What I was trying to show was how much lying snow has reduced over the last couple of decades.
In the 10 years from 1977/86 my local reporting station Mylnefield had an average of 18 days per year snow lying. This dropped to 11 in the following 10 years and to only 6 in the ten years to 2006, 1/3rd of the first figure.
In my home area the station at Faskally reported 40 days of snow lying per year in the ten years to 1986. This dropped to 31 in the next ten years and down to 20 in the ten to 2006, thus halving in the period.
Incidentally even with this drop I doubt if there are many low level stations [94 mtrs asl] under 100 mtrs that report as many snow lying days.
Anyone know of any?
Can you check if there were any other 10 year periods though (how far back do records go?) that had such low occurances of lying snow?
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Yes they cut the grass yesterday outside my flat although it was quite funny when they got the mower stuck in the muddy patch at the bottom of the hill. And my dad has already cut his this year although my parents do live in an unusually sheltered area and have a lot of tree cover over the garden. I think the lack of frosts is certainly a significant driver for plants, shrubs and trees not dying back and indeed flowering early.
I think that it would be interesting to analyze cold (frosty and snowy) periods that occured in other periods of mild Winters such as the 20s, ie, did they have day after day of mild with the odd days cold blip, and compare this with our climate since 2000. Was it the case that even though these Winters where mild as a whole they also had one or two periods of colder or a very cold spell of Weather lasting longer than 24 hours. One could even extend the period from Nov-March to incluse Early/late Winters and count the number of events that had say, more than 2 days of lying snow or 2 consecutive nights with a ground frost, with a points system such as 1 point per event, 2 points if if the cold snap lasted longer than 2 days etc. Problem is you would nead a computer the size of Gfs to work that lot out.... :lol:
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I am not by any means the most passionate of gardeners but the daffs have been in full bloom here since last week...Also friends who are keen gardeners and older and wiser than myself tell me that they have just done a second cutting of their lawn in South Kent today since it is growing so fast, ridiculous, shouldn't even be the 1st cutting yer. Many plants are coming up or flowering months in advance and plants that should have died off in the winter have survived, so far. Also the number of bugs that are around already is quite alarming. No snow so far and hardly any frost, (there were one or two frosts back in Dec).
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Not a single flake around here so far this year. Couple of pics from Northern Italy around the Turin area to remind us all what it looks like, thundersnow was reported this afternoon :lol: ...I want some pleeaaaaase!!!
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Its the closest I'v ever got with my punt at 10.8c so happy with that. :lol:
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10.8c please
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Well around these parts I always say get bonfire night out of the way before looking for snow, (5th Nov) it has never snowed before this date in my living memory. The earliest snow showers have turned up mid Novemeber, not usually settling on lower ground though except for one occasion in the early 90s, I was away on that day and was extremely surprises that about 1cm of snow had settled around here. Dont get much more then that in Winter these days in S East London.
I dont like looking at juicy charts (that would have produced cold and snow in a Winter month) in early Autumn since the patern always changes come Nov/Dec time and I end up thinking what a waste!
, come on KW, spill the beans....
Snow on the way? April 5th onwards cold snap
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by snowray
I would have thought that the areas on the bordering S Wales and England would have been in line for the worst of it (or best, depending on your point of view) re tonights potential snowfall, but yes indeedy, the weather warnings have gone for South Wales and most of the south West it would seem! :o