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WeatherArc

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Everything posted by WeatherArc

  1. WeatherArc
    Eagle Eye was some people walking around earlier as well
  2. WeatherArc
    tornado sirens going off in La Grange ahead of that PDS tor
  3. WeatherArc
    I have a feeling those discrete supercells in western kentucky are going to be a problem
  4. WeatherArc
    Storm that passed Evansville moving into a very favourable environment.
  5. WeatherArc
    Wall cloud over Evansville a few mins ago
  6. WeatherArc
    Tornado warning issued for Evansville Cell, first of this event.
  7. WeatherArc
    Large wall cloud coming into the city of Evansville, may be a tor producer soon.
  8. WeatherArc
    Heres the latest observed sounding from Nashville
  9. WeatherArc
    Clearing ongoing, some discrete development ahead of line and those hodos arent a great combo.
  10. WeatherArc
    Ryans now live, am a bit more uncertain about today due to lots of elevated convection developing over past hour but i think a sig tor threat should still materialise.
  11. WeatherArc
    Completely unforecasted clearing now very apparent across areas of greatest tornado threat with moisture recovery ongoing, how far north and depth will determine the ceiling of todays threat. Observed soundings now coming in as well. Nashville, Tennessee Wilmington, Ohio
  12. WeatherArc
    All eyes on satellite this morning, MCS seems to be clearing the target area. Pronounced clearing ongoing behind it. Very strong EML now being lifted over the Ohio valley, this can either help or hinder the event-too strong of an EML would likely require 2500+ j/kg of cape to help updrafts punch upwards through the dry air, however the presence of this EML will likely increase the odds of more surface clearing and moisture recovery=more instability available. I should also note it appears storms are about an 1hr 30 ahead of the Hrrr depiction, may mean better recovery. Also while this MCS isnt the main event, it is already producing tornado warnings over kentucky.
  13. WeatherArc
    It would be nice to have an oklahoma risk that didnt bust but oh well Anyways, onto today A significant tornado outbreak is likely across portions of Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky. Some concerns about morning convection and the level of instability that can recover but latest cams still have discrete cells in a strongly sheared environment.
  14. WeatherArc
    Storms have fired a little later than expected but a severe weather event is now underway, low level shear is now starting to increase.
  15. WeatherArc
    We now have a moderate risk for tomorrow, a significant outbreak of violent and long tracked tornadoes over the Ohio valley is possible. Warm sector completely full of pds tor soundings. One of the most potent environments ive ever seen, just screams long tracked sig tors.
  16. WeatherArc
    Southern Oklahoma
  17. WeatherArc
    A moderate risk has now been issued for Oklahoma tonight. The main daytime threat will be large-giant (softball-grapefruit) sized hail although as the low level jet ramps up strong-violent tornadoes are also likely across much of the state. The 15z HRRR fires supercells off the dryline at around 10pm uk time, these will initially produce giant hail. As the storms track westward into the evening they will encounter a strengthening low level jet, enhancing low level shear. Any discrete supercell within this environment has the chance to produce strong-violent tornadoes. This is just about as classic as you can get for a sig tor day on the plains, supercells initially producing large hail in the afternoon before strengthening low level shear ramps up the tornado threat into the evening and night.
  18. WeatherArc
    As said by @Ben Sainsbury Tuesday night is looking increasingly concerning in regards to violent-long tracked tornadoes. 12z HRRR has a worse case scenario over the Ohio valley region, a likely outbreak of violent tornadoes. I can see the spc going with a moderate or even high risk if trends continue. Im especially concerned by the fact that both the 3k nam and hrrr agree on this scenario. Moderate instability (2000+) combined with those curved hodographs just screams strong tornadoes. A number of random soundings taken across the warm sector in Ohio and Indiana, ive never seen so many PDS tor soundings in my life. 3cape is also very high across the warm sector, this environment just screams sig tors. Hrrr develops a line of discrete tornadic supercells that track to the west. We are still 30 hours out from this event, things can change but at the moment a significant outbreak looks to be possible. Tonight also interests me, especially in Oklahoma. Will make a post for that a bit later.
  19. WeatherArc
    00z HRRR in and very potent, a severe weather outbreak is now on the table for both tonight (monday night) and tomorrow, ill make a longer post in the morning but for monday an outbreak of supercells is likely over Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and Illinois. The threat in most regions will be large (baseball+) hail and damaging winds, however areas of enhanced tornado potential seem to be southern Oklahoma, northern Missouri and Illinois, strong-violent tornadoes are possible if not increasingly likely. Sounding and simulated radar from southern Oklahoma Sounding and simulated radar from northern Missouri Soundings and simulated radar from Illinois Itll be interesting to see if HRRR trends more to the nam 3ks solution (shown in my previous post) or if the nams still overdoing instability and shear.
  20. WeatherArc
    18z 3k nam also brings a pretty juiced environment to Oklahoma, likely overdoing it but interesting to note.
  21. WeatherArc
    Yeah this could be an issue. 18z nam 3km gives a pretty high end environment across parts of Kentucky, Ohio and Indiana. Considering the nams linear storm bias, tuesday looks very potent at the moment.
  22. WeatherArc
    Tuesday has now been upgraded to an enhanced risk, due to recent model trends i am becoming increasingly concerned with the threat of strong-violent tornadoes. The NAM shows this environment the best, hodographs like that combined with large low level instability is never a good thing. I know events shouldn't be compared 3 days out but the 1965 palm Sunday outbreak does have quite a few familiarities to this setup, something to watch Failure modes should be stressed, positioning and strength of surface low critical to whether we see a tornado outbreak or not, furthermore until cams come into range storm mode is uncertain. Where the warm front sets up will also be pretty important. Still, very potent looking setup.
  23. WeatherArc
    I see the nams had a few too many shots of vodka tonight you just cant hate the absolute random outputs this thing comes out with. All other models have absolutely no low level shear Look at the 3cape values lmao Fires a supercell off the dryline bulge in south Oklahoma. Very, very large hail threat monday night. Any tor risk will be completely down to if we can get more of a low level jet (unlikely) or mesoscale mergers.
  24. WeatherArc
    Day 3 enhanced risk now in place for parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. Main hazard should be large hail although a tornado cant be ruled out, CAMS still not in range so difficult to say the exact ceiling of this event. After this severe risk passes there should be a short quiet period before another trough rolls in around the 9th, all ensembles and models support this outcome at the moment. From initial looks the 06z paints a very favourable picture of a negatively tilted trough with strong mass response across Oklahoma and Kansas, moisture could be an issue but we are so far out its pretty difficult to say. GEFS also supports this. Interested to see how this one evolves. Will try to do an update on mondays risk when better cams get in range, the tornado side of the risk does not look that impressive right now though.
  25. WeatherArc
    Still lots of uncertainty in models this morning, all to do with how the trough phases and the amplification of the jet. However CSU MLP guidance continues to highlight high severe probabilities, very close to showing its equivalent of a high risk NAM will come out in about half an hour and 3k NAM tomorrow, should hopefully give us some more confidence in the ceiling of the outbreak, at the moment i would say large hail will be the main threat due to weak low level jet.
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