law of averages
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Posts posted by law of averages
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Good evening peeps, what a really poor poor winter... it's been so far!! A lot of peeps on here keep banging on about how mild it's been?? Well bar a spell around Christmas it's been cold ( even very cold ) around these parts since November... granted not freezing or snow ( only a couple of days, which didn't last more than few hours ) but mild no... I can take whatever weather puts in front of us, I drive a forklift at work and spend about 30% of day outside in only a t-shirt and a hi-vis but the other drivers, are wrapped up like teddy bears!! Like it was a minus, proper winter... but it as been cold, none the less.
Some southern parts, say Staffordshire South, might be mild from time to time... but not here. But not unlike a lot of winter's around these parts, even green ( not white ) or on the cold side ( no snow )... but I think it's just patterns and cycles ( nothing else )
As for the rest of winter, into spring... I think another cold spring could be on the cards, like a lot of springs over the last 4 or 5 years... but the weather will do whatever it wants... so time will tell.
Just wanted to get that off mi chest, lol... enjoy whatever takes ya fancy ☺
That holy grail of winter's, could be just around the corner
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On 06/02/2019 at 01:11, Frost HoIIow said:
Not odd at all. I don't care about Europe's Winter weather. 2010 was 9 years ago. It was a fantastic year in the UK both early and late in that year but it's now a long time ago in my opinion. A part from probably Feb 2012, early 2013 and last Feb/March mild has dominated. It has been utterly crap. As cold lover's we've been fed scraps.
Sorry but it was odd, because you was referring to snow that was 23yrs back... I mentioned something that was only 8yrs ago really!! But in reality we had more green winter's than white... in the 25/30yrs before 2007!! We've had more white since then... so yes I stand by odd remark
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8 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:
Great pics. Think Blackpool got buried too - There's a video of it on YouTube.
We just don't get snow like we used to. Never seems as heavy as it was in the past. Rain on the other hand seems to have no problem giving us a soaking.
What about 2010!!... Europe just had some incredible amounts, odd remark really
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Says 5c here but doesn't feel like It?? ... Says light snow on radar but it ain't.... but what snow we had Tuesday, still about 50%ish here... so still cold
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SNOWING here also
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Good late evening, fellow cold n snow hunters... some Xcellent posts, AGAIN!!
I've one unrelated question, why doesn't it show... whose on forum at the bottom of the page any more??
Sorry for being off topic
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2 minutes ago, ghoneym said:
Look, I'm not saying this kind of thing will be instant, it's a slow gradual process, evolution and nature always is. The MODEL OUTPUT over the last couple of years in winter has been great, we have had some really exiting modeling. However there can be no denial that things are warming up, the evidence is everywhere.
Sorry I disagree BIG time... so what's happening in EUROPE or the STATES eastern side nearly every yr... is GW/CC... sorry no chance, I'll lose my balloon knot before any of that lol
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38 minutes ago, ghoneym said:
Sea ice extent is overall in an emergency state. No doubt about that.
the slight recovery the website refers too is, in my opinion is due to the current SSW. The warming reduces the chances of PSC clouds (ozone destroying clouds) forming due to the stratosphere temperatures being relatively warm for an unusually prolonged period and allows ozone to reform.
A healthy ozone layer reduces solar input hence the chances of ice cap recovery. Now bear in mind we are at or very close too the solar minimum and the fact we are looking at "4th and 5th lowest levels of polar ice" the next 20 years look bleak. Sorry to put a downer on things but we need to enjoy these colder and snowy spells as they are modelled because one day it may be a thing of the past
. Your last comment, just the same as that PROFESSOR... who in the early 2000s said ' would there be SNOW in western Europe '... this really ticks me off, patterns and cycles yes... GW/CC NO
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Cancer, horrible word... it takes no prisoners!! Our thoughts should be with her family, RIP
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I watched weather on North West about an hour ago... couldn't believe what she said?? She said the fog that had lingered most of the day had gone and it wouldn't be as cold either... wrong on both still quite foggy and mild it ain't, it's been cold for some time around here... and yes with a couple milder days, just surprised by her forecast really
Anyway let's next wk, delivers... we need a good cold snowy winter, to be 50% near 1947 would me
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17 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:
Another year we could hope to emulate is 1855. The first ten days of January were mild with a flabby high over Europe, and CET values near 8 C to 7th and above 5 C to about the 12th. The second half of the month turned much colder, the end point was 2.4 C, and February was third coldest at --1.7 C with some bitterly cold easterlies showing up mid-month. There was a ten day interval that rivals any other for sustained near-record cold.
Looking at the wetterzentrale archive maps it would appear that the flabby Euro high gradually weakened in place, became an extension of higher pressure near the Ukraine, and then that ridge gradually disappeared when higher pressure still developed in Siberia and extended gradually towards the Baltic. There were no sudden or dramatic changes but eventually what we might consider perfect snow-producing synoptics appeared by early to mid February.
Another similarity was that the cold appeared at roughly the same time in eastern North America after a mild start to January there as well, with some record lows in the first half of February. This was a low solar year between the 1848 and 1860 sunspot peaks although not in a long-term quiet spell. Not sure if we can say whether the Pacific was in the El Nino state. Also it was just two winters after a cold late February and early March in 1853 so while that timing is different it shows that the progression from mild winter (1852) to late cold to mid-winter cold was operational. The winter of 1853-54 was fairly average after a very cold spell in mid-December.
I've mentioned before that 1895 and 1917 also had these mild starts to January followed by gradual but sustained colder patterns. 1956 was not so organized but some rather mild days at first and then again before the major cold spell in early February as late as 28-29 Jan the mean was above 7.5 C. And if I asked you to guess the mean daily CET on 15-16 Jan 1947? 9.1 and 10.0 ... the subzero spell started on the 24th of January. Sometimes mild fades out, other times it has to be removed forcefully from the premises by one last gasp of the Atlantic.
Given the stratospheric pattern and the evident weakness of the Pacific at present (can't even deliver El Nino warming to my house 300 miles from the ocean) I place the odds at 4:1 in favour of a sustained cold spell this winter, most likely timing 15 Jan to 25 Feb. The 1855 analogue looks closest to a perfect fit but hey, with all these major cold years showing similar signs, you have to be optimistic.
Xcellent post Roger
, I'm a great believer in patterns and I'm sure we will get a winter that's up there with best.... 2010, 1978/79 and I think 1996 being the other I have my memory
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2 hours ago, Borei said:
The European Commission undertook a public consultation last year about stopping all clock changes. Public opinion was overwhelmingly in favour of remaining on a single time zone year round (although over 80% of responses were from Germany). The Commussion believes that clock changes damage human health.
So the Commission told EU states that it wanted to stop clock changes from October 2019, and states needed to decide what time zone they wanted to be on permanently.
EU states have however pushed back, asking for more time to consult and decide. Consequently the Commission's plans to stop clock changes are on hold, at least until 2020.
The UK government has however said that it has no plans to stop changing clocks, and outside the EU the Commission has no jurisdiction over UK time.
Thanks for the posting
, it's good they're not thinking of doing it again
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On 23/12/2018 at 18:07, matt111 said:
Not got a clue, why that's there... especially from the 23rd
Anyway HAPPY NEW YEAR to you all on this XCELLENT forum
I hope we have a COLD n SNOWY ONE...
And to all the mild rampers, trollers and those who are just disrespectful... I hope you all have a IAN BROWN WTF moment.... and you all have a COLD n SNOWY new year too
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2 minutes ago, Law of averages!! said:
If it's true they are thinking of stopping daylight saving, AGAIN?? Does no remember the early 70s when they did it... and it didn't work!! So WHY should it now, just a thought
Ps I was about 6 or 7 at the time, so that would be 72/73... they did it stop accidents at school time ( starting time/finishing time ) it actually created more accidents, if those who remember, remember it
Don't know why this appeared... lol
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If it's true they are thinking of stopping daylight saving, AGAIN?? Does no one remember the early 70s when they did it... and it didn't work!! So WHY should it now, just a thought
Ps I was about 6 or 7 at the time, so that would be 72/73... they did it stop accidents at school time ( starting time/finishing time ) it actually created more accidents, if those who remember, remember it
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It cracks me up here, sometimes... people writing things off!! Some of the best winter's, didn't start till boxing day or even January or even later!! So to be crying before it's even started ( I'm well aware, nothing may not happen at all?? ) is ridiculous... around the area i live, we've had more decent winters here since 2007... than the previous 25 plus years( nowt to do with GW/CC )... of course im disappointed when cold n snow dont appear, even fleetingly?? But even in recent weeks it's been COLDER than temp it states, mist n fog have appeared which seems an age, since we've had any... with things in place to give us a fighting chance of summat decent, chill peeps and let things unfold... we've got 3months to give us that chance, let's just wait and see
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10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
The 18z GEFS for christmas days are one of the blandest yet, with the parallel being the best on offer. Many rather mild runs on there unfortunately.
Pretty frustrating that as soon as the 12z output came out yesterday with some promise for the christmas period, things have markedly swung the other way to mild again. Gutted... 10 days away but we would have to see a dramatic change for something really wintry. Best I can hope for is a toppler northerly or a brief cold zonal spell.
10 days is a long time, whatever they're showing 2day... probably won't be within 75% in 3 days time, never mind 10?? Just saying
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Just now, LetItSnow! said:
Going by knowledge I've racked up over the years and the charts the winter of 1971 was almost entirely forgettable bar an impressive cold spell with snow over Christmas 1970. By the 6th of January mild southwesterly winds ploughed in and on the 10th it got 18.3 degrees C at Aber, North Wales. Talk about a pattern flip! February was non-descript.
Well 70 goes with what I said... it must have 70 but with it going into the new yr, 71 must be in my memory but it's good memory either way cause now I would have been 5 lol
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26 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:
1971? Snowy? Eh.....
But what I was trying to say, is there is a pattern of some sort there for all to see... whether a BIG winter or small winter... no global warming in site to boot
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18 minutes ago, BruenSryan said:
1971? Snowy? Eh.....
Well I was 6 at the time... and as I've said a yr or 2 either way!! I've got 71 as snowy in my head but 70 or 72 could have been also?? But I'm talking about my region, not UK as a whole... cause not all area's would get snow at the same time.
Probably 47/63 did or didn't ( all area's)... as I wasn't born but going off my father these winter's did... but only people who were there to remember it, could answer this
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What about DECEMBER 2010, that was more or less uninterrupted... a month!!
Also someone else mentioned there's no pattern in weather, I disagree BIG time... there are patterns, nowt surer... just going from 1947 ( give or take year!! ) BIG winter, 1955 I'm sure was a cold winter, 1963 another biggie, 1971 was snowy, 1978/79 take your pick on either, 1986/87 I'm sure these were memorable, 1995/96 I'm sure one of these was, 2003/04 might not be as memorable but some good snow, 2009/10 as above... and this year the beast!! So within 8yrs or so, there's some memorable winter's... 1947 and 1963 being the exception and seeing as I wasn't born till 65, them 2 are out of my reach lol but there are patterns there... whether BIG or small
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Well at least it stayed dry, earlier... but like someone mentioned it felt RAW out there!! It's felt like this for a while now, is this a precursor to something COLDER!! I'm not like some on here, who are a lot more knowledgeable about the weather... but I've mentioned it before on here, the last time it felt like this was 2010... I've not put it with earlier this year the BEAST, cause that was completely different lol
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In our area of this great island... the 80s, 90s and up to 2007 brought to many green winter's!! Never mind MILD/VERY MILD December's... since 2007 more winter's have brought the winter's/December's... I and many crave, DECEMBER 2010 being the most notable for MANY, MANY YEAR'S... let's hope winter 18/19 can deliver!!
Ps there are many people on this site/forum who are very informative and a joy to read, whether right or sometimes wrong... too many to mention but keep writing, I'll keep reading lol...Ged
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Been a cold week, that's for sure... one thing that's got me thinking is how cold it's felt!! It's felt a lot COLDER than the temps have showed... I'm no weather XPERT, by a long chalk... but there feels a underlying COLD, which I can't explain... but the last time I felt the same thing was 2010 and 2007... I'm not saying for one minute we're going to get the same but the signals feel the same, time will tell... but I don't think it's going to be as mild as some or tv weather think and I think this be no more than little blip... here's to a decent winter or better lol...Ged
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North West Regional Discussion 30 December 2020 onwards
in Regional
Posted
Relatively heavy snow here... could be our heaviest, so far this winter