CryoraptorA303
-
Posts
1,110 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by CryoraptorA303
-
-
Downburst Maybe, last year may have been a perfect storm but it's a look at what the future is going to increasingly look like from here.
Temperatures will go down again, we are going to have a La Nina at some point and things will naturally cool down, but not by much. The next however many years are still going to be the x warmest on record. The same happened after the 2015/16 super Nino, temperatures never came back down to where they were before. 2018 was a bit cooler but still above anything before 2013.
Labelling recent developments as a "trend" is also Shareholder's Fallacy, there is no guarentee that this isn't just a bump in the road. Global temps may rebound again back to similar levels, they could stabilise or they could keep declining at some rate. So far no major cooldown is predicted from this El Nino in the rest of this year.
Long point short, temps are bound to go down from this crazy extreme but they'll never return to where they were before 2023, or at least not to the levels before the end of the last La Nina. The consistent, accelerating addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and accelerating positive feedbacks such as melting ice and permafrost year on year mean there is simply no energy budget for a serious decline and there is a hard limit on how far it can go down from here. Once a major heating event occurs, it's extremely hard for it to go back to where it was under the current environment. This is a little understood part of climate change that will cause further unaccounted heating as the years go by.
2025, 2026 and 2027 will be a bit cooler than this year, but still the x warmest years on record, and 2028 may be the coolest year of the 2020s perhaps being slightly lower than 2021 (doubt it though), before the next notable El Nino occurs around 2030 and global temps reach new extremes currently thought impossible again. It's honestly a really depressing outlook, it's now far too late to do anything serious about climate change and we're probably going to be on the way to 1.5°C of warming by the 2030s and 2°C by the 2050s.
-
1
-
-
Downburst El Nino has spearheaded the warming in the last year or so, but this is definitely down largely to climate change; we would not be observing such a gross warming effect from El Nino were it not for the background warming of the climate. We've been observing growing extremes in heat, floods, droughts, storms and hurricanes since the 1980s, we're now simply at the point where the chickens are coming home to roost and it's accelerating out of our control. Hunga Tonga may be having some level of impact, but it's impossible to assess exactly how much, and it's unlikely to be an overriding factor, just a contributive one.
Changes to sulphur-based pollution regulations around 2020 have also been suggested as a factor for the most recent episode of unprecedented warming in the oceans but it is still being heavily debated.
Overall we should not get distracted from the fact that these extremes would not be occurring without climate change in the background. El Ninos, eruptions etc. have all occurred numerous times in the past without resulting in such extreme effects. The 1997/98 and 2015/16 super El Ninos were warning signs of what was coming, and it's now arrived.
-
1
-
-
15 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:
That’s what happens when high pressure dominates in spring. It’s second warmest for maxima. Interesting that upon checking, the warmest spring on record by daytime temperature is still 1893 and by a 0.6C margin. Those chillier nights under high pressure stopped 2020 from ranking the very highest.
April 1893 was in particular absolutely crazy, being the only April to reach 28°C until 2018 reached 29.1°C; even 2011 stopped just short of 28°C. It's also still overall the 3rd warmest on record. According to my list it still holds the second, joint seventh (with 2018) and ninth warmest April days on record. A repeat of April 1893 would be unlike anything we've seen before, likely consecutive days above 30°C and possibly an April warmer than the average May. 2011 would look like cat food in comparison.
15 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:Does feel like we’ve entered that stage now where the same weather patterns don’t really bring the same weather. I wonder if sea temperatures around us are aiding mild nights and stopping extensive fog and low cloud in the east. The uppers and even the pattern aren’t remarkable but I feel the surface is reacting so differently.
The very high SSTs almost certainly have something to do with it, keeping temps unreasonably mild for the time of year, more akin to what you'd see in October or even late September. Actually, most of the Spring up to May can be described like that. Increasing air and sea temperatures due to climate change will increasingly "autumnise" our shoulder months and winter and concentrate the warmer, drier weather in the May-September window.
-
1
-
-
danm Not Fohn, downslope winds and/or sheltering. Fohn requires rainfall on the windward side.
-
1
-
-
12 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:
people obviously want something to do and hate being told what to do as well.
What relation does this have with anything?
12 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:thing is the met office don't just look at CET data, they look at UK data too
This spring is currently projected to finish at 9.2°C UK-wide, pretty sure this is a record by some margin but I can't find the data.
EDIT: Currently the warmest on record are 2011 and 2017 with 9.12°C, this is indeed quite a record. If there's another warm/hot spell later this May then the final figure could still go up.
-
2
-
-
Starlings Roost Weather
STARLINGSROOST.DDNS.NETScotland is really abnormally warm for the time of year right now, they're projected to finish at by far their warmest May on record and only just behind their average June.
-
2
-
1
-
-
danm And that doesn't even mention the absolutely rancid humidity throughout. That heatwave must've set the highest humidexes ever recorded in the UK.
-
WYorksWeather W00t, perhaps the May 30°C will happen after 12 years of hibernation? I really don't want to be waiting another month+ for a haircut, I doubt we'll get as lucky as we did last June to have temps spike so early in the month.
richie3846 Wow that sounds horrific, my condolences. I was mostly just sitting in my room waiting for the heatwave to pass and I managed to still become absolutely drenched in sweat doing absolutely nothing. My fish tanks reached 32°C during that heatwave, to this day their record since 2017. Even in July and August 2022 they barely got above 30°C, the overnight temps during August 2020 were also staggeringly high and helped the fish tanks stay stupid hot.
I would like to banish August 2020 to the seventh circle of hell but unfortunately September 2023 was just as bad if not worse in terms of relative DP/humidity vs temperature (literally around 70% humidity at ~32°C here on Saturday 9th, incredibly oppressive conditions), plus July 2019 was also disgustingly humid for the temperatures being reached, so it seems these humidwaves are becoming exponentially more common.
-
1
-
-
Summer8906 The whole heatwave was nothing short of disgusting, the only memories I have are being inundated with sweat and the sheer oppressiveness of it. Surely even heat lovers don't want heatwaves like that.
-
1
-
-
August 2022 definitely has its special place in hell but the raw discomfort of those two or three extremely hot days in July will always trump it imo. By the time that August heatwave happened the high temps had become somewhat normalised and it didn't quite have the same impact anymore, physically or emotionally. Of course I'd take an entire summer's worth of August 2022s over another August 2020, christ that was an absolutely miserable heatwave. Second to only July 2019 of course, that heatwave was Satan incarnate. I would genuinely suffer a consecutive week of Coningsbys over going through another July 25th 2019.
danm Your house must cool down quite easily; by mid-August 2022 I was borderline going delirious from the poor sleep quality due to how much of a heat sink my house is.
2018 was admittedly not quite as bad overall but towards the end it definitely had its moments.
-
1
-
-
Speaking of, why isn't "Goudhurst" just called "Bedgebury Forest"? It's way out of town from Goudhurst and the town itself will regularly be warmer than the station's location due to being on an open plain vs the station being in a forest. "Goudhurst" being generally lower than the rest of Kent doesn't really come from its elevation, it's only 85m up, it's much more to do with this station being right in a forested area.
-
dryfie And on the flip side you have Charlwood, which isn't even in Surrey, let alone Charlwood! It'd be much better named as "Crawley" or "Burlands Farm".
I can understand some things being named out of convenience, like the old Gravesend Broadness station (RIP) which was actually a few miles out of town from Gravesend proper, and Brogdale generally being referred to as Faversham because Brogdale sounds like a brand of toilet roll, but there are some really brainless naming conventions at Met Office HQ.
-
Okay, I'll bite.
The year started with a mild winter, February in particular being very mild and having several daily records that stand to this day. March and April were actually a bit below average and saw the only snowfall in the south for the whole "winter". In early May however it warmed up a lot and there was a notable warm spell. The May overall is one of the warmest on record. Unfortunately this didn't last as this summer is notoriously poor with August in particular being dull, wet and cool. Autumn was also a bit wet but not exceptionally and was also cool, so plenty of crisp mornings later on. December continued with this trend being cold and dry especially in the SE. This winter would go on to have the most significant snowfall event in England since the early 90s.
Clues:
Labour government
Leap year
LetItSnow! Clues?
-
LetItSnow! Indeed, my house is an absolute heat sink as well. I think it's the conservatory and my fish tanks trapping all the heat.
WYorksWeather Ross-on-Wye got just as warm so none of that.
-
Alderc 2.0 Duh, this spring has been substantially wet. But even in an average or warm spring these sorts of fronts are bound to happen.
19 minutes ago, Azazel said:Something has changed
Yes, it's called El Nino and the north Atlantic being abnormally warm (not a very El Nino trait btw) for a strangely long time combining to cause very high levels of rainfall. Eventually it'll change.
Do you reckon everyone thought "something" had changed after every single month of 1872 had been wetter than average?
-
1 minute ago, Summer8906 said:
What do you make of the model thread though where GFS forecasts of just 13C for Mon and 14C for Tues are given for this area at 1500Z? That is around 4-5C below the normal, assuming the normal for mid-May is around 18.
Given the airmass isn't cool, that would suggest to me pretty heavy cloud and pretty persistent rain for those two days.
It's high spring in the UK, such weather is bound to happen at some point. I don't think the rainfall totals from this blast are going to be particularly high. After going through two months of such persistently wet weather and another month that failed to see a serious improvement (but still improved), two more days of showers is hardly anything.
2 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:Also GFS seems to want to keep the low around for the whole of next week, with the next possibility of vaguely settled weather being after the 20th.
Who really cares at this point, the 20th is so far away in forecasting world that it's not worth thinking about. It took until last weekend for this week's spell to be virtually confirmed. Tomorrow the GFS will probably say something substantially different for the 15th onward.
Realistically it's still May and in this country we have to wait until mid-June onwards to have a highish chance of settled conditions. Spring months with no cooler interruptions are essentially unheard of - Even April 2011, May 1992, May 2008 and May 2018 had their brief moments of cooler intervals.
-
Summer8906 It's far too early to say that yet based on a 2-3 day long minor breakdown. I really don't see any catastrophic stuff in there, it's looking like Sunday will have a bit of a thundery break, Monday will be showery and Tuesday a few showers here and there. After that looks very benign to be honest.
The majority of May to come isn't even within forecasting realms yet, for all we know this could be a record warm May in the making and the second half sees a previously unimaginable heatwave with x consecutive days above 30°C and the first tropical May night on record a la September last year. I somewhat doubt that outcome without evidence to back it up but it could just as easily be inoffensive and settled in the last two weeks.
Since Monday it has been very settled for most, enjoy the warm spell that we have now instead of dreading a minor breakdown next week. This week alone will have significantly contributed to monthly sunshine hours. A settled final two weeks to the month would see this May be confidently sunnier than average and the first month to be so since January. There are definitely far worse ways the first ~2 weeks of May could have gone.
-
Has anyone here put in a September date? While I'm not going to bet on that as the potential for very hot weather in late July/August this time around is too great imo, I would think this year is one of the more likely ones to see a September annual max. If that happens then this will be the first two consecutive September annual maxima since 1890/1891. September 13th was one of my three possible annual maxima when I was deciding what to submit, in the end I decided on August 1st. I won't give away my methodology or reasoning
-
LetItSnow! This would be Northolt's first annual maximum since 2004. Interestingly, 2004, 2002 and 2001 are Northolt's only annual maxima on record. Quite the coincidence that Northolt got two consecutive annual maxes in its debut, got a near-hattrick and then buggered off to never be seen again.
I think I've already declared mine to be 37.9°C on August 1st at Kew Gardens.
-
1
-
-
Wimbledon88 Still respectably warm for early May, the average even in London is only around 17°C and most of the WM is going to be around 15°C.
-
1
-
-
B87 Indeed, overall its sunshine hours in the summer are barely higher than in London, and its winter sunshine is only as high as it is due to the much higher Sun over their winter than here; hour-for-hour I'd be willing to bet winters are cloudier there than in southern England.
Humid subtropical climates are nowhere near what those who like Mediterranean climates want, I can only imagine the number of immigrants to Australia who ended up disappointed with the weather in the end. Really the only inhabited place with that climate in Australia is Perth, and summer there is absolutely stupid hot, hotter than what any Brit or Canadian etc. is prepared for. Winter there is also miserable, as miserable as 2023/24 was for us. Mediterranean winters, especially Csb but a lot of Csa as well, are among the most miserable in the world imo. Just a constant October/November for 4-5 months.
-
1
-
-
Summer8906 The observatory must be either right at the coast where the sea breeze blows in its face or higher upland out of town, because in 2022 the airport recorded 35°C:
In 2023/24 they exceeded 40°C multiple times. Australia's weather is much more ENSO dependent than ours and La Nina years are notorious for being cooler in the east and warmer in the west, while El Nino years are hot almost everywhere and wet in the tropical north.
It has to be understood that the Australian climate is fundamentally different to ours. Unlike Europe they rarely get prolonged warm/hot spells, with only a handful of examples of such ever happening, especially more towards the SE and away from the desert. Instead they more have one or two very hot days at a time before returning to average/below average conditions. While somewhere like Sydney is generally warmer than London, the "laid back mediterranean skies surfing lifestyle" thing is definitely marketing to some extent. It's more muggy and a lot more stormy than many here would think, and especially towards the SE coast facing Tasmania the average daytime temps start to fall closer to the maritime levels you'd expect in Europe.
The winters there are also absolutely miserable imo, outside of the desert and tropical north it definitely isn't warm all year, the winters in most places are generally muggy and annoyingly mild, especially in somewhere like Melbourne. There the winter months are about as sunny as an average March here.
In Sydney the sunshine hours over winter are higher but the temps aren't much higher than in Melbourne. Even in Perth the winter temps are about the same.
Anyone who considers moving to Australia for the climate must be prepared for at least three months worth of average UK April conditions a year and for summer to be very muggy with frequent overcast, stormy interludes (where most of the yearly rainfall comes from in fact) and rapid swings in temperature, unless you're going to Perth, in which case prepare for summer to be extremely hot, probably far hotter than you're prepared for, for barely any better conditions in winter than further east.
-
1
-
-
This has to be the sunniest day in, I don't know, forever? Probably since January which is a bit depressing.
Overall cloud levels seem to be lower than predicted, I didn't see any cloudless sunshine in the forecast for this location at all. Expect high sunshine hours and perhaps slightly higher temps than forecast this week. At this level London will easily hit 20-21 today while it is forecast at around 19.
-
1
-
-
danm The tube network is also going to become a serious problem in the next few decades with hotter summers. It's already now generally hot in the summer due to the buildup of heat over the years, it's going to be pushed to levels of inhospitability in a couple of decades as heatwaves keep getting more intense. I didn't go to London during it but the network must've become stupidly hot during the August 2020 heatwave for instance. It couldn't have been nice in 2018 or 2022 either. In the end it'll likely result in most of the lines needing to be rebuilt with more modern ventilation systems, and the ones deemed not profitable to rebuild having to be closed for substantial periods over the summer when they become dangerously hot to human life.
It's not just the heatwaves though, the number of milder days and cooler nights that would allow for some amount of the heat to dissipate are rapidly disappearing, and even without major heatwaves the tube network is becoming hot by August and September. I remember going on the Victoria line in early September 2021 and it was uncomfortably warm even then. It's not the sort of heat anyone can enjoy either, it's very stuffy, stale heat with no air exchange whatsoever.
Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by CryoraptorA303
The Essex coast has actually consistently been the driest part of the country this year. It's important to differentiate between East Anglia and the South Coast as they can be wildly different.