CryoraptorA303

danm That's the problem, the high temps combined with the insane humidity made it disgusting to live through.

raz.org.rain I think I'd rather live through a combination of 1976, 2022 and 2003 than that dung heap of a summer again. Incredibly humid and warm to hot, ew.

Summer8906 I meant more the same temperature range as May 2018, perhaps with one or two degrees added, which would include the thundery breakdowns. raz.org.rain Indeed, such conditions are great for Azores low and euro high. Probably a very stormy but hot summer incoming.

We already do, English wine has existed since Roman times. It's simply not as cheap or high quality as wine from elsewhere. However, I agree that winemaking will boom in the UK as summers continue to warm, winters turn milder and milder and it becomes less viable on the continent. Come the second half of the century, if the SE quadrant is transitioning to Csb which is likely by this point then it will outright be the ideal climate for many grape varieties. Methuselah Nearly, it was a neutral that wanted to be a weak Nina. Aside from that, 1911, 1975, 1976, 2018 and 2022 were all Ninas.

1911, 1975, 1976, 1995 (almost), 2018 and 2022 are all very confused by this statement. If anything the first-year El Ninos are more likely to be wet and mild as we've seen over the last year. Second-year La Ninas are really the only ones that seem to have no chance of anything seriously warm outside of 1975 or 1999. Frigid I only want a single day so I can get a haircut, then we can go back to warmth that is more normal for the time of year. Knowing our luck though, we'll get a day or two in the low-20s before returning to fairly overcast conditions, and then in late May we'll go straight from that to some sort of September 2023-like heatwave with an unprecedented number of days above 30°C, because moderation isn't allowed anymore. That's a good question actually, what would the exact same heatwave as September 2023 look like in late May? Higher temps or lower temps? Fewer or more days above 30°C? Of course May has cooler air and SSTs than September, but that doesn't seem like a factor at the moment owing to the global situation, and in late May the Sun is already at July levels of strength vs early September already being back to early April levels, so I'd be leaning towards the same heatwave in late May with the current global situation reaching higher temperatures and 1-2 more days above 30°C, which shows you really how exceptional that heatwave was. In late July or early August that heatwave could probably have been expected to bring about 10-12 consecutive days above 30°C and about nine of those above 34°C.

raz.org.rain Hopefully this somehow escalates to the earliest 30°C on record, as my hair is now starting to get annoyingly long and I'd like a haircut Would also be just in time for a family wedding.

raz.org.rain I'd say it's August and September even that have the highest chance of seeing the warmest and driest weather of the season. The post-Super Nino and SSW are conspiring to make this year heavily backended. Really we're just waiting for the affects of the late season SSW to wear off for the wetness to stop, depressions in the Atlantic as of late are getting much weaker than they were in early April and before. June itself won't be special, I could see it being a bit of a May 2018 even with the thunderiness angle, July might have the first notable heatwave of the year and, assuming May isn't, could be the first drier than average month for most since June last year (0_0!), and then August will be the hottest month of the year with the final big (and possibly hottest, climate change is coming for the 1906 record) heatwave in September. What happens after that is heavily up to what happens with ENSO, as ENSO-neutral after this point would likely mean continued backendedness which means a dry, probably sunny autumn, while a new La Nina event (can we just not have neutral for a while please?) would likely see the backending stop by mid-October and we could actually see a colder than average Nov/Dec.

Catbrainz Indeed GFS 12 has thrown out something more positive but there's no cross-model agreement yet. It's something to keep an eye on.

I remember Atlantic 252 With any luck the Nino backending will have worn off by then and there may be some chance of winter synoptics occuring in actual wintertime. A light La Nina beginning in around September would kill it by October and lead to more seasonality for the period, ENSO-neutral would probably see an autumn 2016 repeat with summer synoptics continuing into December and then rapidly giving up and switching to a more frontended year like 2017. We have suffered the worst of all worlds in the last year, Super El Nino + positive IOD + sky high SSTs even without El Nino + late deep SSW. Horrible, vile combination that hopefully doesn't recur anytime soon. We could do with quite a long ENSO-neutral period now, around 2-3 years, or at least only very mild Nina/Nino events for the next 4-5 years. This constant back and forth between El Nino, triple La Nina and Super El Nino is exaggerating the growing extremes we were already seeing without them. ENSO-neutral winters are really a 50/50 with them either being extremely mild like 2019/20 or 2013/14 or cold like 2012/13. For springs and summers though they have a good track record, spring 2020 was the last neutral spring we had and July 2013 occured in the last true neutral summer. I can't think of any serious stinkers that occured during true neutral. Something like 2003 (not a stinker but for the purposes of definition) which is technically neutral doesn't really count as that's post-Nino and the global climate was still clearly being affected by it at the time.

B87 I remember being quite shocked at how relatively low September's average rainfall and it's sunshine was, until I actually thought about the last few years and realised how many of them could have plausibly been Augusts. It makes sense as well with the subtropical ridge's growing influence on our climate, as it's at its northernmost extent in early September, so it likely prevents a lot of showery weather and only lets in the occasional strong storm fuelled by the highest oceanic temps of the year. You can often see the influence of the subtropical ridge in August and September over Kent, and to a lesser extent the SE, it's often drier than the surrounding region no matter what. I refer to this as being "Kented" The Met Office has stated that summer-type synoptics in Autumn are likely to become more common over the century due to climate change: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/2023/2023_05_september_heatwave.pdf "As our climate continues to change, it will tend to further increase the likelihood, duration and intensity of heatwave events experienced across the UK. Met Office research[1] has also shown that climate change is expected to increase the frequency of summer-type weather regimes during the Autumn in the UK." This will presumably increase the number of September annual maxima (which are considerably more common in some Csb climates like northern Spain than here) and the severity of heatwaves in September and October in general. Makes you wonder if in the near future we could see a September so hot that it ends up as one of the ten hottest months ever recorded.

These two are just funny to me. Both times the August and September could have plausibly been switched. Nature was really trolling the schoolchildren in these two years In all seriousness, the growing summer-ness of September and the recent decline of August is noticeable in the long-term climatology. September's overall rainfall has declined quite a lot since 61-90 in the SE, while August's has increased a little.

danm Indeed, it really is the worst of both worlds. Abysmal December, apocalyptic February and then a late SSW to start the cycle all over again. Considering the deep SSW happened in early March and assuming it has an active window of around six weeks before the effects gradually decline, it'll likely take until mid-May at the earliest to shake it off now. Super Ninos have a habit of doing this, having a strong PV over the winter so we get mild, wet rubbish, and then have a deep SSW in March so the spring is suppressed. Sky high SSTs have conspired with this to ensure such a progression remains very wet and dull throughout. Temps have only remained at where they are due to aforementioned sky high global temps and the occasional breakthrough front that gives us a few decent days before normal programming resumes. The cough silver lining of this though is by the time this is over the Atlantic would've had over half a consecutive year of high cyclonic activity and there is now a noticeable cold blob in the west Atlantic, so once the affects of the SSW start wearing off, those highs should begin to reach us quite eagerly, so there is at least a plausible hope that the second half of the year might be notably dry, sunny and probably very warm to hot.

August is the one that pops out to me, we're now ten consecutive years in without an August annual max, which is the longest run since at least 1875. In that time we've had two September annual maxes. The last shortest was about seven years so we're definitely due a few August-centric summers. It seems like we're missing heat in June as well, last year was the first notably hot June since 2018, and before that 2003 if I recall. 2017 had the heatwave but overall it didn't end up overwhelmingly hot. We have been getting sunny Junes in that time, they're just not turning the thermometer up much.

In Absence of True Seasons It's worse because the last two months have been like it as well. Dull Aprils happen but it's not so often we get a hat trick like this, along with December being abysmal too.

Markus03 B87 Yeah, it's a bit of a stereotype taken to America by northern English and Scottish migrants. East Anglia has among the driest Cfb climate in the world.