raz.org.rain

WYorksWeather that certainly will be a shock to the system when it eventually does happen. According to the study published by Oltmanns, Holliday et al. back in March, we can expect a record breaking hot summer within the next five years due to how the atmosphere responds to freshwater in the Atlantic.

I would honestly laugh if at some point in May we leap straight into summer heatwave weather and end up stuck with that through to September. Nine months of autumn and three months of summer. Sod's Law says that if we can end up stuck with perpetual autumn for so long, at some point we'll end up stuck with perpetual summer.

I was thinking that too. James Peacock mentioned it last week on Twitter too. Once those SWlies return, I'd imagine they'll be incredibly warm and humid. 2019 style summer seeming more likely.

Penrith Snow wouldn't that, by definition, be a "warm-summer Mediterranean" Csb climate under the Köppen definition?

Methuselah 2022 was a La Niña year too

CryoraptorA303 some positive signs for May at least

The hv6999jxe blog is going for a "decent summer" as they describe it; "I expect UK summer 2024 to be a “decent” summer, as I’ve eluded to many times on social media over the last few months. However, I expect it to start off as a bit of a slow burner, more especially June, with July and August the 2 months I would expect the warmest weather. I also believe we’ll see a significant increase in thundery plumes bringing plenty of thunderstorms up from the near continent this coming Summer!" I'm inclined to agree. I don't expect a repeat of last July/August as a strong El Niño won't be a factor. I get the impression that a neutral or even a rapid flip to La Niña could actually help to flip us into a drier and warmer pattern this summer, considering we're already stuck in a wet pattern.

Part of me wonders if this run of SSWs is related to El Niño conditions and warmth being shunted into the Arctic. Considering everyone keeps banging on about how global temps will cool down with La Niña, presumably this will include the Arctic. Less anomalous warmth in the Arctic would drastically reduce the possibility of SSWs if I understand right.

danm I wonder if that owes to the theory that a late season SSW would be beneficial for a warmer and drier summer? At some point, the pattern shifts and gets stuck with the opposite synoptics. That could be ideal if you like hot and dry summers à la 2018.

Wade it's funny how the charts are only reliable if they're showing crap. Any hints of warmer weather and suddenly "it's ten days away", it's the CFS" etc.

Something to be hopeful for. Hints of a southeasterly flow going into May. We mustn't forget that the models have seen some massive u-turns even within the reliable timeframe.

This all has hints of 2018 for me. I remember how long I had to wait for any signs of real warmth and felt absolutely defeated when we had late season snow (can't remember when it was exactly but I remember it was unusually late for here). Of course, the summer that followed turned things around.

Random and unrelated fact, but temperatures often drop to near freezing in the middle of the desert at night.

Addicks Fan 1981 that warm April kills the 2007 analogue for me.