raz.org.rain

This would be exceptionally bad luck for any heat lovers in Poland if it comes off. Doesn't look good for @IcySpicyeither

Jonnoramo87 to be fair, they say the same thing about warm and dry springs being summer killers but it hasn't happened this year

Not so fresh here, hotter than yesterday in fact! Lots of talk of a cooler wetter pattern getting stuck, I assume it's hopium given that literally nothing supports it as an option

Downpour I'm confused by it also. Seen some insinuations that a cooler wetter pattern will get stuck for weeks but pretty much everything else is saying that won't happen. It's looking like the cooler spell will last several days before we're seeing temperatures rise again.

Stream (or glorified drainage path) completely bone dry. Never seen that happen here before.

I must be sheltered from the breeze here. Supposedly its cooler elsewhere but it's not even made a dent here

edinburgh_1992 the rest of the world seems to think the UK climate is the same from the north of Scotland to the south of England but the difference is pretty staggering really, even between Cheshire and mid Lancashire there's a notable difference in climate

Seems to be a lot of that over the past few days or so with people insinuating next week's low pressure will stick around forever.

I'm not sure where all this talk of cooler wetter weather is coming from, forecasts still suggesting low to mid twenties next week outside of Tuesday and Wednesday

Oddly enough the only thunderstorm I've had here so far this year was in March

Thunderboom it's more often suggested that an AMOC collapse would be characterised by a drastic drying trend, so I'd assume that snowfall would virtually disappear. But, as is standard with the AMOC collapse theorem, that's based on highly idealised assumptions that don't account for localised feedbacks. For example, it's likely there'd be a stagnation effect in sea surface temperatures around NW Europe, so we'd see pretty drastic SST warming during the summer. That would contribute to the moisture needed for snowfall but, at the same time, would substantially mitigate cooling. So the result would be coldish rain. If we see something closer to what the Orbe et al. study suggests with northward expansion of Hadley cells and a strengthening and poleward migration of the jet stream, I'd expect there'd actually be a warming trend for both summer and winter oddly enough. It would be a pretty considerable example of Bjerknes compensation. One thing I've noticed with idealised AMOC collapse experiments is that they tend to suggest a cooling and North Atlantic sea ice regrowth that's more extreme than what the proxies suggest for the YD stadial, which should immediately raise questions as to how reliable present general circulation models are.

Premiere Neige the loss of ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes also significantly alters atmospheric circulation in this region, with a pronounced cold subpolar North Atlantic SST anomaly primarily being associated with stronger anticyclonic activity over Europe, often with high pressure located over NW Europe. This generally allows for more substantial continental and Atlantic ridging influences via a more meridional flow. It was likely the primary factor in sustaining the consistency of summer 2018 and has been identified as a factor in rapid deglaciation during the Younger Dryas. I'm of the opinion that academia has been consistently disingenuous in how they communicate the AMOC's role in local climatology. It's resulted in a sort of Mandela effect where people understand it as a radiator of some sort that's the only thing stopping us from freezing. It's considerably more nuanced that that, of course.

E17boy I'm not convinced. It would be unrealistic to expect any extreme response within such a short time frame, plus the immediate factors associated with such a situation may actually make it harder to sustain colder anomalies. If we do see such a swift response this winter then we may as well assume that that >45°c will definitely happen next summer and it'll be the hottest on record by a long mile. That is assuming that you're not referring to the latest paper that discusses a hypothetical reversal of the SMOC (southern hemisphere branch), which I believe the authors have just published an update clarifying that they haven't in fact found a reversal.

Northern Sky which would be strange given how insistent some have been that a trough will be stuck over us from next week onwards!

danm Scandinavia really getting the short end of the straw this season