raz.org.rain

I had a feeling we'd start seeing big changes come May

The current pattern reminds me of 2021 in a way. I seem to remember a north south split with the south getting a horrendous summer whereas the north had plenty of warm to hot spells (albeit very thundery)

Overcast and wet day, but surprisingly not particularly cool. It feels like a wet summer day more than anything, a sense of muted mild with the humidity.

Summerlover2006 generally there's no strong correlation with ENSO states and summers in northwestern Europe, it's somewhat contentious. ENSO effects are more pronounced during winter in this part of the world.

Personally my expectation is that longevity of significantly above average temperatures could very well be the theme of this summer. It wouldn't at all surprise me it if turned out to be wetter and duller than average and yet we see a near record consecutive run of +30°c days and a record number of tropical nights. So basically something along the lines of 2019 but with much more warmth, although I'd be equally less surprised if we see a sudden flip to considerably drier than average and end up with something closer to 2018.

cheeky_monkey the analogues aren't particularly strong so I'm less convinced.

LetItSnow! it's worth noting that the cold blob anomaly is often more associated with hotter and drier summer anomalies in northwestern Europe. There are numerous studies that delve into that hypothesis, the more recent being that of Oltmanns, Holliday et al. Said authors go as far as suggesting that a 2018-2022 style repeat is imminent within the next five years based on last year's freshwater increase rate.

joggs I believe the solar activity connection got largely disproved since then. Well, not so much disproved but demonstrated to be considerably less potent than AGW.

Forecasts are going for a similar spell of weather next week, but I feel they're undercooking the temperatures. Sunny, very faint straight southerly breeze but only 19°c? I suspect it'll get closer to low mid twenties.

I wonder when we'll finally break the May CET record? A lot people have noted how unusual it is for that record to not have fallen yet.

Supposedly got to 23°c here today. Pleasantly warm despite the breeze.

An actually decently warm and sunny spring day today

Surprisingly mild night, feels more like an average summer night. Scorcher judging by some of the posts around here, forecasts are only reliable when they're forecasting crap. Anything remotely nice is fantasy or will get downgraded.

Pleasantly warm albeit windy, but we've reached that point where the breeze is tolerable without a jacket on.

Penrith Snow ECM were wrong about the weekend if I recall correctly? Like, pretty drastically wrong too.

CryoraptorA303 I expect a 2018 style turnaround personally, I reckon we'll be laughing at the absurdity of change by summer.

Weather apps are all going for ~18° here for the next few days. Cloudy but so far no rain forecast for tomorrow with a southerly gentle breeze, it'll be a pleasant change to upper teens.

CryoraptorA303 hopefully upper 20s but someone pointed out in the comments that it's closer to low 20s I think

Sun Chaser a May 2022 repeat would be a worthy sacrifice if it meant we got a summer 2022 repeat

"Possible heatwave by the end of next week, but let's remain cautious"

SqueakheartLW if I understand it correctly, isn't that an ideal setup for significant atmospheric blocking through summer much like in 2018?

Greyhound81 very unlikely. A weaker AMOC would result in a noticeable drop in precipitation in both winter and summer. Winters would observe a colder and drier trend whereas summers would be considerably drier and hotter. Under a partial or full collapse scenario, you'd see the same trend but very amplified. Here's an article from a few weeks ago that discusses the implications for summer. Ironically a collapse scenario would make for a much more pronounced and predictable seasonal variability in this part of the world, we can pretty much bank on cold dry winters and hot dry summers.

The poor first week of May seems to have been downgraded (or upgraded) quite significantly. Next week is mostly upper teens with 19°c next Saturday.

danm it's interesting that people will insist we can't get consecutive hot and dry summers but seem to take no issue with the idea of consecutive poorer/wetter summers.

The only saving grace of this wet spell is that it occurred mostly in winter, so presumably it has a much higher chance of waning off in time for summer... considering the duration is already unprecedented, we can assume an end is coming very soon.