Theo
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Posts posted by Theo
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1 hour ago, DOdo said:
It is based on probability
I'm not sure who you were quoting there but it wasn't me
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Just now, ANYWEATHER said:
Sorry, but let's agree to disagree......end of story..☺
Nope. You're simply wrong. And clearly not as familiar with the tools and methods long-range meteorologists use as you claim.
Thanks for the apology, though.-
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6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
... at the end of the day it's all guess work...
No it isn't.
It feels like we've been here before...-
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3 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Would you care to elaborate your thoughts please??
A response to a blunt statement like "it's all guesswork" doesn't really call for much embellishment. However, I will note that meteorologists use various tools to produce longer range forecasts, including extended-range models, global atmospheric drivers and teleconnections. At longer and longer lead times the outlook becomes more probabilistic; of course, nobody knows what's going to happen a fortnight to a month ahead, to address the second part of your statement, but with proper interpretation this aforementioned guidance can give decent ideas of trends in parameters like temperature, precipitation and wind, with various degrees of uncertainty depending on consistency and agreement.
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5 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:
It's all guess work .......
No it isn't.
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17 hours ago, damianslaw said:
This thread has died somewhat this month..
The met office forecast for first half October is going for higher pressure, hard to see at this stage how such an evolution to settled will surface, atlantic looks very strong. Mind GFS hinting at heights building to the north by month end and ridge to the west which could herald a change.
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On 05/08/2023 at 12:06, Don said:
Thursday 10 Aug - Saturday 19 Aug
A dry and sunny start is likely for many parts of the UK at the beginning of this period. The best of sunshine will most likely be found in central and eastern parts of the country, with conditions being cloudier and a few showers in the west and southwestern areas. Similar conditions are likely to persist throughout the rest of the period, with high pressure to the east of the UK bringing dry weather to the southeast. However, low pressure system in the northwest is likely to bring wet and rainy conditions to the northwest areas. Perhaps periods of low clouds and misty conditions at times for the south. Winds are likely to be light for most, stronger in the north. Temperatures will mostly be warmer than average.
Sunday 20 Aug - Sunday 3 Sep
A changeable pattern is most probable through the latter part of August and into early September. This is likely to bring a mixture of some dry, settled weather but also some spells of wetter, more unsettled conditions. There is a risk of some heavy rain or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures are expected to be close to average for the time of the year, but some warmer spells are also possible
UK weather
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UKTromso-Langnes The latest UK weather forecast. Includes UK weather for today, tomorrow and long range forecasts up to 28 days.Not bad for mid August period.
Goodness me. That's appallingly badly written. -
On 15/06/2023 at 16:29, Scuba steve said:
They use MeteoGroup sure they where big in the 70s
MeteoGroup didn't exist in the 1970s.
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On 08/06/2023 at 11:38, Sweatyman said:
Ha ha. Brum? Not a chance
Saturday's maximum temperatures at Coleshill was 30 deg C.
These meteorologists might just know what they're talking about, y'know. That whole London-Cambridge-Birmingham corridor had highs of 29-31C. -
2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
seems so weird, going over the top with warnings! since when has 24 degrees or so, been a heat health alert, unbelievable
While many of us enjoy temperatures of 25C (not 24) and above, it is undeniable that there are people for whom increasing warmth is a health issue. And some places are forecast to get to the upper 20s or 30C. If it's inapplicable then it's easy enough to ignore.
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3 hours ago, Alderc said:
Is this an actual joke? For a couple of days of warm weather that’s not even a certainty.
It's only 2 days ahead, though, through to D+5. Confidence is pretty high, and it's less useful issuing a warning less than a day ahead.
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12 hours ago, johnholmes said:
my goodness we do have some very clever forecasters on here. Just what is wrong with this as a preliminary warning. Equally what is wrong if they do change it later today?
The warning alerts gritting centres rather than leaving them not having any guidance.
For info, councils and other authorities that deal with salting / road treatment receive their own detailed bespoke forecasts above and beyond Met Office warnings.
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Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Not in the slightest; it's the nature of any conversation that somebody will arbitrarily make the last remark. But it seems more likely that it's people who say things like "end of story" who want the last word.
Anyway, enjoy your Met degree. You'll find the sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting fascinating if that's part of what you study.