Sun Chaser
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Posts posted by Sun Chaser
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CharlieBear9 Not a fan of this wetness or mildness and I'm sure you'll find most of us didn't want this at all. BUT it's not worth directing your anger at users of this forum, it's not like they choose the weather either!
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Summer8906 Thing is, that 1991-2020 average IS what our climate is now for better or worse. 61-90 is totally unrepresentative of what our climate is in 2024 because what was average then could be considered below average now, ie around 7-8c. Especially looking at this period in recent years (2019-2024) which would have all been considered anomalously warm in the 80s, but this is just the norm now. Probably the average max for late Feb now is 10c!
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Been a weird few days here. Some of the nicest and absolute worst February days I can ever remember alternating in quick succession. Thursday was stunning in London with 17c recorded (I think) and bright sunshine for most of the afternoon and so was Friday morning. However yesterday driving west saw torrential rain and grey cloud all day and all night. Today in the south west is indifferent but pleasantly mild. Such mixed feelings about this month!
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raz.org.rain You never know, genuinely curious how many SSWs have led to warm March/Aprils? Would I be right in saying 2007 had an SSW
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Seen some mention of a late Feb SSW in the model thread. Feel a little bit sick now
can't face another grey cold wet March
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Actually there's been a surprising amount of enjoyable Februaries. In recent times, 2018 and 2019 were both very sunny. 2019 was my favourite hands down due to the snow at the start then very springlike final two weeks but I did enjoy 2018's frosty and snowy spells ending with the BFTE. While Feb 2023 was almost bone dry and very springlike too with some beautiful sunsets. What I'll also say is that many others have had up to a week of very sunny, mild and dry weather towards the end such as 2021 and 2022 which I didn't enjoy the first three weeks of but then they turned.
Going further back I also enjoyed Feb 2008 and 2012 for how sunny and dry they were. Feb 2009 was very snowy which I liked. Had I been alive for Feb 1998 that might've even beaten out the others!
If I was to rank them:
1. 2019
2. 2008
3. 2023
4. 2018
5. 2012
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9 hours ago, Robbie Coldrain said:
Some big cold rain events possible down south in the next week or two.
Thrilled.
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Haven't posted much here lately but I just wanted to say how the past ~10 days of winter weather has been absolutely perfect. 10c+ maxima and bone dry with plenty of sunshine and light winds. That's as good as it gets this time of year!!
Particularly today which has been 14c and sunny - that's incredible for early Feb. Today it genuinely could've been April it's just been insanely springlike! How could anyone want this to end for cold and rain??
Here's some pictures of the weather since Jan 24th each taken on separate days. What a spell it's been in the south.
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Harry233 I'd add 2012 and 2013 (and most of 2011) but I agree!
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In Absence of True Seasons May 2022 I remember as having nice weekend weather and then being completely grim in the weekdays. Remember 7th/8th then 21st/22nd and 27th/28th all being very sunny while the preceding days were dull and wet.
While June was the opposite with some grim weekends surrounded by lovely weather in the week - a good example being a hot week from Mon 13th to Fri 17th followed by a cool wet weekend, then another warm sunny week from Mon 20th to Fri 24th!!
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Harry233 Didn't love September 2021. The first week was stunning with some heat records broken but after that it was often wet, humid or cloudy (though there were some more nice days around midmonth). I do remember a cracking thunderstorm on the 8th though. Then it turned cool and unsettled around the 23rd.
Sep 2020 was a fair bit drier and sunnier which I find most important that time of year!
Having said that we've had 6 decent (or better) Septembers on the trot now. 2022 was iffy at times and 2023 had a poor second half counteracted by an incredible first half. But all had some consistent great moments which wouldn't have been seen in a lot of Septembers from 2007-2017
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@Harry233 September 2020 was a brilliant month, a rare combination (in Sept) of very warm and sunny. I rate it higher than 2021 and 2023 for that reason. The extended summer of 2020 as a whole was great it was just a shame about the 3 months of actual summer!
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Usually done with it by around now, can't wait for the longer evenings and warmer days. In the next couple of weeks sunny days above 10c suddenly become possible again and it's that I'm looking for by now. By late Feb all eyes are on spring and any late cold is just a nuisance. Especially if there's no snow which there usually isn't.
Having said that: love some cold weather in late autumn! October or November snow/frost is always interesting (much better than mild rain) and the novelty is great as the evenings are still drawing in. Generally only look for cold in late Oct to mid Jan*
*one recent exception being that freak sunny warm spell in mid Nov 2022
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9 hours ago, WeatherArc said:
With spring beginning to appear on the horizon i thought it was worth looking at some long range models, they haven't been great the past year but its worth seeing if they are starting to sniff out a common theme for spring and early summer.
The CanSIPS seems to think early spring will be cooler than average before transforming to above average mid spring onwards.
I'm liking the look of the precip anomaly's as well, think we all need it after all the rain we had in Autumn
Height map aint bad either, bit of something for everyone, starting off with potential for cold easterly's before transitioning into what looks like a high pressure dominated late spring and summer
850 temps for summer
Yesterdays CFS:
So perhaps staying cold late winter early spring before transitioning to warmer conditions, precip seems to stay somewhat average throughout spring before sliding below average for summer, lots of high pressure about especially late spring/summer. Interesting to see both models agreeing on above average 850 temps across Iberia, something to watch as we go forward.
I'd bite your hand off to have the July and August that these are showing!!
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Summer 2020 much worse having lived in the south west for both. Two brief heatwaves surrounded by weeks upon weeks of cloudy dross. Summer 2021 was mixed with some glorious spells of weather mixed in with some pretty poor ones but the poor spells of 2021 weren't as bad as the poor spells of 2020.
But 2020 was more memorable I guess with its heatwaves and the insanely sunny spring!
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3 hours ago, Summer8906 said:
I've noticed there isn't as much love for April 2022 as I would expect. Here, a typically dry, sunny and warm April of recent years and a very nice month but maybe my location was unusually favoured.
Was thinking that!! April 2022 definitely an underrated one coming after 2020 and 2021 which were both exceptionally sunny. But Apr 2022 was consistently well above average and fairly sunny from around the 11th onwards and very dry too. I started learning to drive that month and I remember lots of fine afternoons driving around
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Well there's definitely potential for the first "springlike" day of the year under a ridge on Friday, 12c and sunny in late Jan is as good as it gets!
On predictions for spring - March to be unremarkable but pleasant (2015 ish maybe),
April 2024 just doesn't sound like a good month in my head and it's been a long time since a properly bad one so maybe the worst since 2012 sadly. Just a gut feeling with 0 actual reasoning so I'm hoping this is a reverse jinx.
May 2024 - another nice one, maybe peaking in the first half which hasn't happened recently
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Wednesday to be the first semi-springlike day of the year?? Fully focused on springlike conditions now
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Despite the upcoming mild spell and the mild start to the month, it's looking possible that this January will be the coldest since 2010 for many parts of the south, even if it was mostly unremarkable.
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Jan 2021, 2022, 2023 all some of my favourites. 2021 was snowy and frosty - especially the first half. 2022 exceptionally sunny with some frost but also some mild sunny days which were welcome. 2023 was poor until the 12th but instantly turned beautifully sunny with a little snow before some springlike days at the end which were great!
Of course Jan 2009 and 2010 some great memories as a child. Don't remember details though.
Jan 2017 and 2019 were dry and fairly sunny which is always nice this time of year. 2019 also gave an unexpected snow event on the 31st which then led into one of my favourite winter months.
Not really much else I remember fondly
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22 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:
Probably also due to further SE it not being that wet at all, just a bit dull and not that hot. It still did have its moments in June after all, and the August heatwave will be incredibly strong in the memories of those on the south coast.
21 hours ago, kold weather said:To be fair that heatwave in August 2020 and the extremely sunny May probably ensures 2020 has a positive reputation, even if the rest wasn't anything great.
Its worth remembering that before last year 2020 held I think 3 or 4 out of the top 10 hottest ever days (one at the end of July and the heatwave in August).
Summer of 2023 is basically similar, with one very impressive month of sunshine/dryness and one impressive heatwave for the time of year.
Actual "summer" 2020 was horrendous where I was with the first half of the summer averaging ~18c maxima (early July was particularly poor) while June and Aug both recorded above 100mm. Not to mention all three months recorded less than 150hrs of sunshine. Just that one week in August was pretty exceptional but I think people just remember the extremely sunny spring which happened to coincide with a very memorable period of life anyway so they forget the horrible June and July.
22 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:I haven't seen that anywhere at all, the vast majority seem to remember July and early August above anything else. September 2023 already seems to be a totally forgotten heatwave despite its feats and it wouldn't surprise me if it's not even nominated for the Hottest Heatwave of All Time Championship next season (shameless self-plug
). June 2023 will be remembered for a bit longer but it's likely already relegated to the "throwaway June heatwaves" category.
Obviously not on this forum as we're more aware of the weather so we remember this summer for what it actually was (mainly pretty bad). But I've seen a lot of comments and spoke to a few people who remember this summer as being hot, probably equal in number to the ones who remember it as cold and wet. I suppose it's down to the part of the summer you spent more time in the actual weather!
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Just now, In Absence of True Seasons said:
They suggest a mixed bag every year tbh lol.
Which makes sense cos that's our standard summer conditions...
But literally zero point in taking any of it seriously at this stage.
Bear in mind this time in 2023, the models suggested July 2023 to be the warmest, sunniest and driest summer month...and look how it turned out.
Not summer related but won't forget how the long range models all predicted February 2023 to be a barrage of low pressure just two months out. Remember looking at a HUGE blue anomaly over the UK.
Fairly sure in reality we didn't have a single day that recorded below 1015mb!
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On 10/01/2024 at 13:47, In Absence of True Seasons said:
It'd have been perceived as a far better, more average summer in the eyes of most people, I'd imagine.
By the 3rd week in July on the trot of predominantly dull, drizzly and cool summer conditions, June was a distant memory for many.
I feel like some see summer 2023 being pretty good as they remember the 5 weeks of sunny weather from mid May over anything else. The same kind of phenomenon that gives summer 2020 a stellar reputation among the general public due to the historically sunny spring despite June to August itself being consistently poor.
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3 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
July 2023...lol. A month resigned to to the bin.
I don't see high summer 2024 being as dire as 2023 was. The bar is very low. It's very rare we get an entire 6 week period of low pressure from July to mid August.
I imagine 2024 will be a mixed bag of conditions. A few heatwaves, some cooler, wetter spells, and so on.
The prolonged, unchanging nature of the cloudy, cool and wet conditions of summer 2023 (outside of June obviously) was the issue. Which we haven't had like that since 2012.
It's very unlikely that the ENTIRE high summer of early Jul to mid Aug will perfectly line up with a barrage of rain and cloud like it did in 2023. It does happen, you just have to get unlucky - only every so often ie 2023, 2015, 2008. Even 2012 improved significantly in late July. Even if we don't get any proper heat I can imagine at least one of July or August will end up being sunnier and drier than average
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Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
emmett garland Being half Polish I see the weather there a lot at all times of year. The seasonal variation is great - saw snow everywhere on my trip there in late October 2017 but almost two years later we were sunbathing in 25c as late as October 24th!!
Plenty of heat and banging thunderstorms in the summer too. In August 2022 (for 4 days in a row) and July 2023 I saw some incredible thunderstorms over there.