Winter 2023/24 first out of three forecast. Factors to include:
Easterly qbo - Easterly qbo does favour cold snaps during the winter which can increase possibility of cold winters. Not always the case though as winter 2021/22 had easterly qbo and was very mild.
El nino Modoki - El nino modoki is being favoured. El nino modoki events are known to increase chance of cold winters in the uk. El nino as a whole likely to be moderate to strong.
Positive IOD - Positive IOD increases chance of wet and mild winter. IOD will peak October and weaken until going neutral in February.
AO - Negative NAO likely in second half of winter. Summer 2023 was mostly -ao for first time since 2009. Must not rule out +ao winter.
Solar activity - Don't really believe this affects weather too much but if it does then solar maximum can increase chance of mild winter.
MJO - MJO set to be between 6-8 from November to January which favours -ao.
This year all 8 months have been warmer than average excluding July which has been average. September could also possibly be record warm increasing chance of mild winter. World is also very warm right now which increases chance of mild winter. Oceans have not cooled down much in the atlantic which isn't good news for coldies. Very mixed signals.
My forecast is a milder and wetter than average season with mildest spells early December. January will be slightly milder than normal but with cold snap potential. February will be colder than average with a possible strong cold snap. Very little snow in December, more snow in January and February. What do you guys think?
This winter will be mild, I've prepared for the fact we will probably experience a mild wet winter. Nothing we can do. We don't control weather, nobody knows what will actually happen.
