geoffw
-
Posts
426 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by geoffw
-
-
any of you guys think bangor will do well for snow this weekend?
-
chino do you agree with GP's forecast of a super continental arctic outbreak? does the stratosphere support it and around what dates?
-
are you splitting up the regions even more eg having seperate south east and east anglia threads?
-
@sk ... and tbh honest i cant see it changing any time soon or will it?
-
Just a quick one but the EC32 isn't buying any sort of height rises or pattern changes and now goes through to the 20th of January. The full data suite including pressure, precipitation and temperature analysis all points towards a predominantly unsettled, if not zonal flow through to the middle of January at least with lower than average pressure either over or just to the east of the UK. Temperatures look to be around average primarily due to temporary N or NW'ly flows to the rear of any low pressure systems, whilst the south could be warmer than average at times. Clearly precipitation is above average pretty much throughout the forecast.
The 12Z ECMWF continues to highlight further interesting stratospheric conditions and this warming continues to be forecast, but again it just feels as though we aren't getting anywhere with it, perhaps because it has been signaled for so long. That being said January is indeed fast approaching and one way or another the signal within these forecast charts is either going to have to materalise or not.
Clearly the EC32 as with other forecast models did fail miserably regarding the E or NE'ly flow a few backs so clearly it could equally be wrong regarding the general pattern as January progresses, but as I've said before, using the full set of information operationally for over a year has proven to me it is more right than wrong and if that is the case than January could come and go with little or no noteworthy cold weather.
Regards to all and also have a very Merry Christmas.
M.
Just a quick one but the EC32 isn't buying any sort of height rises or pattern changes and now goes through to the 20th of January. The full data suite including pressure, precipitation and temperature analysis all points towards a predominantly unsettled, if not zonal flow through to the middle of January at least with lower than average pressure either over or just to the east of the UK. Temperatures look to be around average primarily due to temporary N or NW'ly flows to the rear of any low pressure systems, whilst the south could be warmer than average at times. Clearly precipitation is above average pretty much throughout the forecast.
The 12Z ECMWF continues to highlight further interesting stratospheric conditions and this warming continues to be forecast, but again it just feels as though we aren't getting anywhere with it, perhaps because it has been signaled for so long. That being said January is indeed fast approaching and one way or another the signal within these forecast charts is either going to have to materalise or not.
Clearly the EC32 as with other forecast models did fail miserably regarding the E or NE'ly flow a few backs so clearly it could equally be wrong regarding the general pattern as January progresses, but as I've said before, using the full set of information operationally for over a year has proven to me it is more right than wrong and if that is the case than January could come and go with little or no noteworthy cold weather.
Regards to all and also have a very Merry Christmas.
M.
god help the south west
-
is a red severe weather warning from the met office likely to be issued?
-
And another p*** poor December passes us by.
oh would you shut up
-
2
-
-
Yes, but not very many. Hope that helps.
who and what is the height above sea level of kielder?
-
does anyone here live near kielder, northumberland?
-
chino, have you produced a winter forecast, it would be a pleasure to read
-
-
Watch the prelim winter video? Or his recent post in technical thread couple days ago....
Agree with ba, haven't seen gp so confident for quite sometime.
Fingers crossed
exactly
-
then why is GP being so bullish?
-
Thanks Shotski, certainly does show how things can flip. I would have been in the US at the time so don't recall, but pretty exceptional set-up ending up the end of November for the UK.
hi ian brown, long time no see . what do you forecast for the upcoming winter?
-
so GP, are you saying we could have a winter like 62/63 influenced by the stratosphere?
-
fred we need chio''s and gp's comments
-
hot knife and warm butter relating to the strat means?
-
1
-
-
And the 'science' still gets it wrong? A long way to go for everyone yet.
BFTP
and so do you
-
ok then ignore me
-
i know for snowfall you can get the thames streamer etc but are there any local streamers and are they as effective?
-
whats the prize watcher?
-
its getting nicely autumnal n cool now, bring on the winter
-
did we have a frost here in bangor this morning?
-
El Nino definitely collapsing over the last two weeks, could be neutral/negative by winter.
is this good or bad?
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
have you any rough dates for the mighty cold blast chino?