beng

Hi Big Bear Just a quick correction - the MO forecast is for a weakly positive NAO based on their Sea Temperature anomoly technique: http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/seas.../nao/index.html - I would agree that Scandi blocking looks likely this winter unless patterns radically change in the next month or so (always possible of course) - although we obviously need the block to extend far enough West - or we face quite a mild Southerly flow - this will likely depend on the jet strength and direction during Jan/Feb. Ben

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html Interesting SST developments - the focus of the Atlantic warm anomoly has moved further North-West - North of Newfoundland and stretching up the West coast of Greenland. I would think this is starting to look quite good for negative NAO conditions - especially if we get a cold anomoly developing off the East coast of the United States in the next month or so.

Not sure I totally agree - the period from Mid Feb to Mid March 2005 must have been quite close to this figure - it may not happen this winter and by the laws of probability alone you would bet against it (I sound like Dawlish now!) - but I don't think it's impossible. Weather is chaotic and just because something hasn't happened for a long time - doesn't mean it won't happen again - or that a new cycle of snyoptics won't take over - quite out of the blue. Even in the Medievel warm period (lasting for a couple of hundred years) - there was still the occasional severe winter in the UK - out of the blue.

Can't be more than 20 miles out to sea based on that photo.

http://www.metoffice.com/corporate/pressof...pr20060710.html based on their NAO forecast.

I was pretty young, but remember waking up to be told that part of the garden fence had blown over and there was quite a bit of powdery snow on the ground like you say - would love to think I might see at least one more winter like that. Anyway noticeable today that GFS continues to build high pressure over Northern Siberia which should ultimately allow good cooling in that region.

Just to be pedantic , I don't think Dec 78 was particularly stormy... It will be good to have some decent cold pooling though :o

I would say slightly below average based on synoptics - however the locally warm sea temps will mostly likely prevent this IMO - so I go for 13.8.

My concern regarding the North Atlantic warm anomoly off Newfoundland is that it may not quite be far north enough - ie it doesn't quite stretch to the South and West of Greenland - at least according to unisys. This I would think could lead to enhanced cyclogenisis just south of Greenland - rather than to the West - which is where we'd like it for the purposes of the neg NAO. Appreciate some feedback on this point as I could be wrong etc. The following chart looks a bit more favourable to me though http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html

Hi John, I'm not as expert as Steve or GP but i'll try and answer the question. My understanding is that is will encourage a positive PNA pattern - ie ridging of the jet on the west of America and troughing in the East - basically influencing the jet to leave the US on a more Southerly track than normal. The main worry for anyone wanting a cold European winter would be that sometimes the jet will then plough North Eastwards to the North of the UK creating the now infamous Bartlett high setup. If we end up with blocking to our North and East, then this could potentially lead to a snowy pattern - dependent upon exactly where the boundary between the warm/cold is. Ben :lol:

Always possible Tim - but a couple of reasons I don't think we'll see it this year - 89/90 was at or near the peak of the solar cycle and sea surface anomolies were very different: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data....90.anomaly.gif Back in 89/90 there was a developing La Nina in the pacific (quite a potent one I believe) - and also the cold North Atlantic, combined with a warm Southern North atlantic - classic indicator of a positive NAO. This winter we may have a weakish El Nino, and I suspect a warm North Atlantic (50-60 degrees latitude), combined with a cooler (relative) southern north Atlantic. http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data...t.8.15.2006.gif Okay so we're still 3-4 months away from Winter and there's plenty of time for the sea temp profile to change as we go through Autumn, but right now I'd say we're looking at more blocking this winter.

Hope it's not too late to enter - anyway I reckon it'll come out around 17c

My guess is 17.1c

14c - just below average. Rainfall 120% (but local variations due to convective activity around the middle of the month).

The worry I might have for those cold anomolies is charts like this http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1502.html If this was to come off, then quite a bit of warm air is going to be heading up into the GIN area. Still things look better in that region that this time last year, IMO.

The charts on Net Weather are from unisys http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html And 3 weeks ago http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-050821.gif These anomoly maps also show that temps to the North are now dipping below normal. Look at Iceland. There is an area of above normal to the far North East - north of Russia - but in terms of surface area, this will be very small. At any rate these maps vary a lot - so you need to look at several different sources to get the bigger picture as to what's happening. Perhaps we should just agree to disagree on this one.

What data are you using? compare the chart I posted with this one from a few weeks ago http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data...t.8.27.2005.gif

Http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data...ht.9.9.2005.gif The Sea to our NE continues to cool faster than normal - cold winter fans should hope this continues. While it doesn't guarantee anything, it ought to aid blocking in the region and promote the chances of Easterly outbreaks later in the winter. Additionally as others have noted Northerly winds may be more potent. :o