beng
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Posts posted by beng
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http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
Interesting SST developments - the focus of the Atlantic warm anomoly has moved further North-West - North of Newfoundland and stretching up the West coast of Greenland. I would think this is starting to look quite good for negative NAO conditions - especially if we get a cold anomoly developing off the East coast of the United States in the next month or so.
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To predict now a severe February of a 1.2 CET is utterly ridiculus; going by the weather patterns and trends of recent years this would be almost impossible, to get the correct synoptics for a sufficiently prolonged period of time in any winter month for such a low CET to occur. We have not even seen a sub 3C month for ten years let alone a sub 2C month. We have already broken the record for the longest time interval between sub 2C months; previous longest was 14 years 10 months (1902-1916), it is now at least 15 years 10 months to 16 years and counting. On a more modest point of winter cold we have also broken the record for the longest time interval between sub 3C months (9 years 11 months now and counting).
Not sure I totally agree - the period from Mid Feb to Mid March 2005 must have been quite close to this figure - it may not happen this winter and by the laws of probability alone you would bet against it (I sound like Dawlish now!) - but I don't think it's impossible.
Weather is chaotic and just because something hasn't happened for a long time - doesn't mean it won't happen again - or that a new cycle of snyoptics won't take over - quite out of the blue. Even in the Medievel warm period (lasting for a couple of hundred years) - there was still the occasional severe winter in the UK - out of the blue.
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Hi Pm3
Fantastic shot that is. Just think in a couple of months that whole area will be locked in ice and darkness ! Just a question how far is that pronouced ice edge out to sea and does it reflect satellite images ? One wonders !
C
Can't be more than 20 miles out to sea based on that photo.
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Could you post a link to the Met office saying it will be a milder Winter- I wanted to know if was from their NAO model or general forecast as they run 2-
http://www.metoffice.com/corporate/pressof...pr20060710.html
based on their NAO forecast.
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Yes, sorry, you are right - I subsequently went to check archives and got my years mixed up in that respect. I knew there was a lot of increasingly southerly tracking low pressure and cold pooling edging closer from the north over the xmas period and the few days after but the dramatic events at the end of December that year were not ushered in by stormy weather - although having said that the snowstorm during the biting easterlies from the channel tracker on 30/31 was pretty spectacular with lots of powder snow. Remember it very well - brilliant!
Tamara
I was pretty young, but remember waking up to be told that part of the garden fence had blown over and there was quite a bit of powdery snow on the ground like you say - would love to think I might see at least one more winter like that.
Anyway noticeable today that GFS continues to build high pressure over Northern Siberia which should ultimately allow good cooling in that region.
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I will get shot for saying something like this but remember how stormy and unsettled Dec 78 was --- and what followed :unsure:
Tamara
Just to be pedantic , I don't think Dec 78 was particularly stormy... It will be good to have some decent cold pooling though :o
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I would say slightly below average based on synoptics - however the locally warm sea temps will mostly likely prevent this IMO - so I go for
13.8.
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My concern regarding the North Atlantic warm anomoly off Newfoundland is that it may not quite be far north enough - ie it doesn't quite stretch to the South and West of Greenland - at least according to unisys. This I would think could lead to enhanced cyclogenisis just south of Greenland - rather than to the West - which is where we'd like it for the purposes of the neg NAO. Appreciate some feedback on this point as I could be wrong etc.
The following chart looks a bit more favourable to me though
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html
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hi
anyone care to or feel able to answer this post I made ysterday?
okay you experts; from NOAA gives this on their site
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/anal.../enso_advisory/
and to copy just the most relevant bit
The statistical and coupled model forecasts range from ENSO-neutral to weak warm (El Niño) episode conditions for the remainder of 2006 and into early 2007
Therefore, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next one to three months, with a 50% chance that weak El Niño conditions will develop by the end of 2006.
I have no idea what this means. Perhaps the more clued up members, Steve Muir, GP might like to comment on what this MIGHT mean for our winter?
John
Hi John,
I'm not as expert as Steve or GP but i'll try and answer the question. My understanding is that is will encourage a positive PNA pattern - ie ridging of the jet on the west of America and troughing in the East - basically influencing the jet to leave the US on a more Southerly track than normal. The main worry for anyone wanting a cold European winter would be that sometimes the jet will then plough North Eastwards to the North of the UK creating the now infamous Bartlett high setup. If we end up with blocking to our North and East, then this could potentially lead to a snowy pattern - dependent upon exactly where the boundary between the warm/cold is.
Ben :lol:
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I'm still going for a very mild and stormy 89/90 winter.
This summer has been so 89 like to me (way above average except August) so I just have a gut feeling that we'll get a similar winter
Always possible Tim - but a couple of reasons I don't think we'll see it this year - 89/90 was at or near the peak of the solar cycle and sea surface anomolies were very different:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data....90.anomaly.gif
Back in 89/90 there was a developing La Nina in the pacific (quite a potent one I believe) - and also the cold North Atlantic, combined with a warm Southern North atlantic - classic indicator of a positive NAO.
This winter we may have a weakish El Nino, and I suspect a warm North Atlantic (50-60 degrees latitude), combined with a cooler (relative) southern north Atlantic.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data...t.8.15.2006.gif
Okay so we're still 3-4 months away from Winter and there's plenty of time for the sea temp profile to change as we go through Autumn, but right now I'd say we're looking at more blocking this winter.
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Hope it's not too late to enter - anyway I reckon it'll come out around 17c
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My guess is 17.1c
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14c - just below average. Rainfall 120% (but local variations due to convective activity around the middle of the month).
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I'm in agreement with the cold rampers here
That + anomaly in the atlantic is hardly anything at all now. And even some negative anomalies starting to kick in possibly eroding any warmth left.
The cold pooling to our north IMO is more potent that what it has ever been. The +2c anomaly a few days ago that was hanging onto north east Greenland has diminished some what and the only thing I can see is cold anomalies starting to invade much of the Norwegian sea and further northwards.
I’ve been following the sea temperatures for some time now and things are cooling down quite rapidly.
WIB never likes to be proven wrong so I doubt we will ever here the last of his obsession with the slight warm anomaly currently hanging on in the atlantic
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
The worry I might have for those cold anomolies is charts like this
http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1502.html
If this was to come off, then quite a bit of warm air is going to be heading up into the GIN area.
Still things look better in that region that this time last year, IMO.
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Well of course the sea is cooling - we've gone from August to September! I'm using the anomaly charts and the +ve anomalies have grown since 4 weeks ago.
I find the good 'ol net-weather SST anomaly chart to be fine - certainly a little more distinct that the one you are using which looks like it's taken from a satellite hovering somewhere over Tierra del Fuego!
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The charts on Net Weather are from unisys
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
And 3 weeks ago
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-050821.gif
These anomoly maps also show that temps to the North are now dipping below normal. Look at Iceland. There is an area of above normal to the far North East - north of Russia - but in terms of surface area, this will be very small. At any rate these maps vary a lot - so you need to look at several different sources to get the bigger picture as to what's happening.
Perhaps we should just agree to disagree on this one.
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No it doesn't. The trend over the past 4 weeks has been for northern hemisphere ocean +ve anomalies to spread. The only sign of hope that I can see for cold lovers is that the extremes are not at the moment quite as acute as last year in certain key areas. Unfortunately the eastern seaboard and mid-Atlantic are well above average, and this is a very poor sign for the winter. The GIN corridor, all important, is slightly less above average than last year.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
What data are you using?
compare the chart I posted with this one from a few weeks ago
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data...t.8.27.2005.gif
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Http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data...ht.9.9.2005.gif
The Sea to our NE continues to cool faster than normal - cold winter fans should hope this continues. While it doesn't guarantee anything, it ought to aid blocking in the region and promote the chances of Easterly outbreaks later in the winter. Additionally as others have noted Northerly winds may be more potent.
:o
- I subsequently went to check archives and got my years mixed up in that respect. I knew there was a lot of increasingly southerly tracking low pressure and cold pooling edging closer from the north over the xmas period and the few days after but the dramatic events at the end of December that year were not ushered in by stormy weather - although having said that the snowstorm during the biting easterlies from the channel tracker on 30/31 was pretty spectacular with lots of powder snow. Remember it very well - brilliant! 
Autumn and Winter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Hi Big Bear
Just a quick correction - the MO forecast is for a weakly positive NAO based on their Sea Temperature anomoly technique:
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/seas.../nao/index.html - I would agree that Scandi blocking looks likely this winter unless patterns radically change in the next month or so (always possible of course) - although we obviously need the block to extend far enough West - or we face quite a mild Southerly flow - this will likely depend on the jet strength and direction during Jan/Feb.
Ben