Paranoid
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Posts posted by Paranoid
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Katia's structure seems to have changed quite a lot over the last 3 hours or so, could be some intensification going on which might account for the buoy readings. Next advisory will be out in the next half an hour or so. Will see what they have to say.
EDIT: Looks like RI is happening according to the NHC. Now upgraded to Category 2 with 100mph winds and a pressure of 966mb. http://www.nhc.noaa....ml/041452.shtml
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Beginnings of an eye starting to appear?
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Lee reminds me a little of Allison in 2001; a very slow moving, large tropical storm that dropped large amounts of rain. Hopefully any flooding will not be as severe this time around.
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thought it was katla for a mo..
Would have been a hell of an eruption if she ended up in the tropical Atlantic ^-^.
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What implications could the westward trend have on any eventual landfall? Are we looking at somewhere further up the east coast such as the Carolinas or is a more southern location such as Florida more likely?
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Just been upgraded to TS Lee. Link to the advisory below.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/021731.shtml
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Looks like we'll get TS Lee out of this system, unless 94L gets its act together very quickly. Still less than a week behind the 2005 season in terms of storm formation.
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Indeed, Katla's had numerous bouts of activity this year followed by periods of quiescence. I suppose they can only be interpreted as individual events in a long term pattern, rather than any one event being indicative of an impending eruption.
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I just noticed that 3.2M event as well, apparently there was a brief spike of harmonic tremor at Katla yesterday as well.
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The system off the East coast is acquiring tropical features and has been upgraded to 50% (in a special advisory).
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Just noticed that the latest GFDL run brings Katia up to 135kt at T-84, which would put it just into Cat 5 status. While at the moment i'm a bit more skeptical about Katia's chances of reaching Cat 5, this latest run seems to be part of a trend which has been slowly increasing Katia's peak intensity. As such, i don't think Katia reaching the moderate - upper end of Cat 4 should be ruled out. This depends really on how Katia deals with the dry air and moderate shear in it's current environment.
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The models seem to suggest two main forecasts for 93L. First one is that it will make it to TS/Cat 1 strength shortly before landfall in Louisiana. Second one (and this seems to be the slightly more common one at the moment) is that it will stall somewhere off the coast of Texas and bomb in the process, becoming a small but intense hurricane before making landfall in Texas or Northern Mexico. This is near the end of the forecast period (T96-144) so obviously a lot can change before either of these happen. My intuition tells me that the first one seems the most likely solution however.
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GOM system now up to Red (60%). Haven't seen any wind shear charts but SSTs in the region are around 30-32c, so plenty of oceanic heat for this system to feed on.
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Katia will probably also provide a significant boost to the ACE values so far. Irene's responsible for most of the energy accumulated, so Katia could quite easily double the current value by the time she dissipates (barring any unexpected obstacles).
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My opinion is this has a real shot a cat 5 status. I truly hope it goes out to sea!
It has plenty of time to strengthen, really depends on conditions later on in the week. I'm inclined to agree with you about the possibility of Katia reaching Cat 5 (very likely at the moment she will reach Cat 4). Hopefully she will not be as infamous as her predecessor...
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I'd say Katia is up to 50-60mph winds based on that picture. If she makes it to Hurricane status tomorrow, then she's ahead of "schedule", which will worry people further down the line. Hopefully Katia will turn out to be a fish or only pass near to land without making landfall (similar to Earl of 2010).
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Now officially TS Katia, advisory below.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/300845.shtml
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92L has just been upgraded to near 100%, so could likely be TD11 by the 0300 UTC advisory.
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I saw the same report Dave and thought the same, i think it's just a random graphic they use when they have Hurricanes, i think i saw them use it a while back for (For Earl in 2010 maybe?). I don't think Irene has had a visible eye since it left the Bahamas a few days ago.
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In Britain they are measured over 10 minutes, but the NHC uses 1 minute values.
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The models still seem pretty confident on this developing into at least a TS, although if it avoids the shear to the north it could quite easily become a hurricane. Not quite as much consensus on the track, still uncertainty on whether it'll head into the Caribbean or up towards Florida although this is more than a week down the line.
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Tremor swarm at Gothabunga near Katla in the last few hours.
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Bit of a surprise storm this one, appears to have just formed near Bermuda. Perhaps shear from Irene was holding it back?
Advisory link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/281159.shtml
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The models seem quite keen on a system coming out of the Cape Verde region, perhaps making it to minimal hurricane strength (difficult to tell simply from isobars) whilst halfway or so across the Atlantic. Seems to be heading either towards the Caribbean or up towards the Bahamas and Florida, similar to the path Irene took earlier in the week. .
Major Hurricane Katia
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted · Edited by Paranoid
Indeed, not quite sure though exactly how much intensification has occurred given that we've gone from satellite estimates to observed values. If we take earlier estimates to be correct though, Katia's dropped some 21mb since it was reclassified as a Hurricane about 4 hours ago. The NHC also aren't sure how long this period of RI will last though, and that will likely decide Katia's eventual peak. Cloud tops aren't as cool as they were earlier so at the moment i think the NHC's estimate of 120mph is probably a fairly good bet at the moment.
Been a difficult system to predict, mostly due to the poorly forecast shear.