swfc

Which chart and time period. Nothing within 10 days min high in situ onwards

It's just a saying. Could have been Rotherham

The dry theme continues while Eastern Europe goes into the fridge. Possible split PV via the Arctic ridge in fi but usual caveats fi etc. Dry and frosty festive period looks a good bet on anything white. You can live in hope or die in matlock, so who knows

Dry with surface cold Ali. Fi but not bad altho gfs 18z evolution doesn't look correct past 144-200 hrs mark imo

Gfs playing with the building heights from North of Scandinavia and pressure from Eastern Europe. Maybe the real cold going into France ete. All fi but worth a look

I'm not sure how it can fail it hasn't happened yet. The fluctuations with such a block is very difficult synoptics wise. The PV altho not that strong is enough to stop any real push of Heighths. It will become evident in the days weeks ahead

I think just taking a general look at runs and not analisng every run bit by bit may give a better idea where things are going. The UK is nailed on 7-10 it seems. One set of runs showing Heighths going way nnw, nne then 12 hours later flattening the high for 12 hours is going to go on well into the Xmas period imo. Enjoy

Hi. You will find fi has and will generally throw out snorter runs along the way. Eye candy looks on the cards but imo I'd be looking for winter nirvana out of interest only. It looks a dry frosty Xmas period for now

Better nhp on the 12z gfs. Look north east of svalbard. Pressure building and forcing an east to west flow be it at a high latitude

Shhhh, relax its only weather and santa is a coming

Think that's a bit unfair tbh. Maybe some folk don't spend all there time on here and there is nothing wrong with a bit of realism, isn't a bad thing. The outlook is dry with high pressure hanging about over the UK. If you want to comment on 14 day charts that's fine but have a bit of respect esp to knowledgeable members

Wow, D-day, pedals pushed, shoot or be shot??? Does that mean the high bringing in cold weather TI, thanks

Yep can here the huskies heading south on the m1

There very small changes Ali altho there. The pattern looking at the PV is set with a high over the UK. I'm not interested in festive, foggy frosty weather tbh but I guess it beats rain. Pretty boring but it is what it is

How can you have confidence or any recognition of it past 144 hrs. Background signals etc ete. Run to run its irrelivent because come next week these synoptic profiles won't exist. That said it will in fi it will keep the faith and hope.

It's 10 days away thought fi was 144 hrs away. What's happening

Can I ask after many years of being on here why you all be believing that come the Xmas period it could be wintry? There is nothing to suggest otherwise on nhp or any model. Tia

Spot on Feb and good call

All the best boss with your old man

Good looking charts TI agreed. That powder will be dry in that pistol so let's hope its fired at some stage over the coming weeks or so

10 day gfs control and mean on the 6z UK high, dry and settled. Ties in with a few members posts.

Yes good dry weather with a decent nhp in deepest fialtho not great for the ski centres in Scotland

The point was in regard to a synoptic position of a forecast area of high pressure not active tpv etc

I agree it's not a bartlett. My point is the high may disappear on the output in 48-72 hours in regard to intensity and any position

The high hasn't even started to show its hand. The outlook is for an area of High pressure to build in theory but if anyone can say where it will be can pm me the lotto numbers lol