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SNOW-MAN2006

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Posts posted by SNOW-MAN2006

    April CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    so now let the waiting begin. 1st day of april already halve way through and pleasantly warm but will the gloves be out next week ? will it be another below average month? will summr make an appearance or will atlantic rain make way for a wet and average month? only 29 days and the answers will be revealed...

    Spring Forecasts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    march review/highlights:

    GFS:

    i expect from this model the first week of the month to be a particularly a cold one. heavy snow will become a problem where the continuation of the colder weather that ended february continues. by the end of the 1st third of the month this model suggest a deep atlantic depression to cross us bringign heavy rain and strongs winds for a time. a mid month the weather will quiten down i suspect as a weak high pressure lies above the uk giving mainly dry weather (althoguh a shower cannot be ruled out) and also alot less windy than the week previous. i then expect a more mobile theme to take control stabalising the uk weather for some time. the scandinavian high is very strong at this point and may head for the uk later on in the second halve of the month but the jet is not in fabvour of this and keeps depressions in the atlantic ready to come in for a few stormy days.

    UKMO:

    from this model i suspect the cold spell to lasty alot longer than the gfs. it shows low pressure in the north sa and the azores high linking up with the greenland high to block any depressions that may like to head our way. if this pattern continues all month temperatures would remain low as northerly winds plough down the country but i suspect the block to be broken around mid month to allow something of a wet nature into the uk.

    ECM:

    very different to the UKmo and keeps the low to the south across germany and sends it east. unlike the other models (that send it north eats)this would allow low pressure to slice through a very weak block and introduce the uk to a very wet and windy theme for several weeks. once we become settled as the azores high tries to make an appearance. l:

    overall:

    well i must admit that all models did get chunks right. they all suggested a very unsettled picture which came around mid month. the ukmo was corect in forecasting the cold that had brought us up into mid month. the gfs did hint at a strengthening scandinavian high which may develop next week into giving us a mild easterly. in all credit this was a good month for the models and they have forecast these events with some good accuracy. marches c.e.t ends up at around 4.8 so my prediction of 6.6 was incorrect. overall model winner is the ukmo for getting around 75% of the forecast period correct.

    so now we have that out of the way time for my April Forecast:

    GFS:

    unsettled at first with winds from a mild south westerly direction and nature. bands of rain(heavy at times) will sweep there way commonly from west to east but at times from north to south. as we head toward the 5th day of the month there is increasing confidence that low pressure will move down from the north to introduce northerly winds. these wil be a common wind direction in the next few weeks. temperatures will be at there coldest on the 5th where snow is likely from time to time and then as the winds remain from the north but come from a slightly milder area snow will then become restricted for the highest ground. very unsettled at times will strong winds blowing about any snow on higher ground but making way for some trecherous driving conditions at times. as we then head towards mid month high pressure will move in from the atlantic (Azores) and make the weather alot more settled and quite warm with southerly winds. altough it will be warm i suspect many showers will get going as this sunshoine gets stronger. towards the latter part of the month the winds will switch direction to the north once again and possibly introduce a slightly cooler theme with wintry showers in the north at times.

    UKMO:

    in similar agreement with the gfs with the first halve of the month. the azores high and the sandinavian low will have battle over the controlment of britain and keep us in northerly winds again the cold spell starts in the first week of the month and a trough moves down the eastern side on the tuesday bringing upto 5cm of snow obvernight. i suspect though as we head through the month the atlantic dominant azores high to move over us and bring fairly settled weather but this will not happen until our little low pressure over scandinavia finally pulls away at mid month. i then expect drier weather to become established with high after high after high keeping it warm aswell as dry.

    ECM:

    again another good agreemnet model with the cold spell coming early in the month. but this model does suggest another severe cold period as we had towards the 10th as a big low moves down from the north once more to allo w another cold spell. but once this low has moved away i suspect a similar theme to the gfs and ukmo with fine and dry weather becoming established everywhere.

    periods:

    1st-3rd: a unsettled to very unsettled period with low pressure moving over us to go over scandinavia. so many days of rain can be expected

    4th-12th: colder period with a low moving down from the north. this will produce snow at the start of the period but as we head towards the middle part of the p[eriod the winds remain from the north but from a warmer origin. this will then lead to snow on hills with rain down at lower levels but temperatures still below average for the time of year.

    13th-24th: azores high moves across us after forcing a persistant low away. this will bring some sunshine but in the strong april sun some heavy showers. temperatures will be above average and feeling very pleasant indeed.

    25th-30th: the period where low pressure may return. low pressure may move down from our north which could make it alot colder with snow but it could come from the atlantic leading to mild weather but either way we are looking at some very unsettled weather in this period which ever way the wind blows.

    notabale periods:

    - 1st halve of the month as northerly winds make it colder with some snow at first

    - the end of the month as unsettled weather may once again become established

    c.e.t: 8.0 celcius with the colder spell having a nock on effect to the milder spell

    i hope you enjoyed this forecast

    SNOW-MAN2006

    Sharp Rise In Co2 Levels

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    And my question was – which is cause and which is effect?

    there is no possible definate answer to global ewarming if you all it yet. scientists have one theory, you may have another whilst i might have only a slight differ aswell. we have only got a small time frame in the world existance of weather patterns. #

    it is true that c02 is a green house gas but im sure that if c02 is the cause then mother nature would resolve it.

    there was a topic about an ice age wether it starts next year or in 10 million years but knowbody knows.

    the best thing anyone can do is recyle before we run out of coal and oil which all add to the problem and we can also walk instead of cars etc.

    the effect of climate change can be hot summers (2003) or colder winters than 10year trends suggest (2006)

    the planet has delicate balances and it will eventually restore itself but we kreeep adding to the problem by cutting down trees that take in the big polluter c02 so we could begin an ice age or we might notice subtle changes in the weather but im afraid very soon, if we continue the way we are going and ice age may become inevitable and global warming may be proven true...

    hope that has been a help to you and others on this topic

    SNOW-MAN2006

    Spring Forecasts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    my march forecast has seemed to iclude everything that has happened but in the wrog order. i did forecast the scandi highs possile rebuilding at the time of our easterly and unsettled mid month so ill reviw on april the 1st with my april forecast beign released aswell with the review

    Spring Forecasts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    i think that the ukmo has been very good these past few months as from what i have understood from them has been almost spot on and i think that my forecast has been correct in ways as i did mention the possible building of the high but i never thought it would make its way across to us until the end of the month and evryone else has made excellentr forecasts too well done to everyone and with 13 days left of march we will see who's first month of spring will be correct.

    SNOW-MAN2006

    Saturday 18th March 2006

    in Weather reports

    Posted

    Morning Everyone,

    todays current weather in Whitburn, Tyne & Wear:

    weather: Overcast

    cloudcover: 99%

    Temp: 5

    feal: 4

    wind direction: east north east

    wind speed: 5 mph

    barometer:1029.1mb

    Rating of weather today so far: 2/10

    todays weather:

    Cloudy with temps of 8 celcius expected and light- moderate winds at times.

    SNOW-MAN2006

    Sharp Rise In Co2 Levels

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    the earth stores masisve amounts of co2 and i was watching something on the telly the other day about marshs and swamp and they hold more carbon dioxide thantress infact the swamps / marshes in the hills of england hold more co2 than all the forests in britain and france combined!!!! i think marshes will help reduce o2 but i hope it is not too late...

    but i do not believe in GW but i do believe we have some part in climate change when we are producing excessive amounts of co2 but if the earth was suffering then the earth would reset itself i.e. ice age so i dont thoink anything major is happening just yet :D

    Friday 10th March 2006

    in Weather reports

    Posted

    hello everyone

    my first post since last saturday

    current weather in akroiti in cyprus

    19 degrees

    20% cloud cover

    light winds

    and a detailed weather reports from my visit at cyprus will be viewable on my blog on sunday

    including a massive bang of thunder :wallbash:

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