ChartViewer

Kold although you compare it to Katrina the devastation will not in a human form be as bad at all......Texas has planned for this for a long while and learned the lessons of Katrina and also NO had a dry river system and no run back to the Ocean system....Galveston and Houston have........Also they have evacuated 80% of residents compared to 50% in NO...........This will not see a human problem in the scale of Katrina.....Simply put they have learnt NOrleans lessons.....

Your comment about inbreeding was poor:-)....but i like you

Thankfully? Also it is hitting land soon and I suspect that be a reason why as much as its completely disorganised structure...........It will still hit as a 2

As you quite rightly said whether it hits as a 2 or 3 the Storm surge will be the problem........Already freeways being cut off in low lying coastal areas..............Galveston will be devasted structually but humanly they have made plans

Totally agree KW........Amazing footage at khou of people taking pictures of the bay and talking to media (who do not help IMHO) that they will ride it out etc etc........The Media build it up as as entertainment then wonder why people stay to get there pics on the TV...Absolutely crackers and as you say the real surge is a while away.......... I find the whole situation there crazy and I have relatives in Austin who have been phoning to say they have seen an influx but not as much as they would have thought at this time!

Latest Sat images of Ike on the link - Taken from the International Space Station....One of which shows IKE covering over half of Cuba.Absolutely stunning images on that NASA site................. http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/..._ike091008.html

Ike as it headed across the Atlantic http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/271870m...7e015162_hi.jpg http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/271873m...7e015163_hi.jpg http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/271879m...7e015170_hi.jpg

Stunning picture of Gustav as it approached Jamaica (from the NASA site) http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/271146m...015046_high.jpg

Hi John, I am frustrated with the data full stop. You know that more than most <_< I think I will give up and just watch events unfold :lol: You are right though on a more technical basis running a 5 day 12z v 12z trend must be more precise than just a 5 run trend. Great discussion though Kind regards Rob

Yes and computer Models are always likely to receive corrupt data at some point Peter. Which means unless they are updating in real time they are always open to interpretation and flaws. Cant beat the real thing Cheers Rob

Thanks Paul, Seemed to be a big issue when looking at the Models as most users were under the Impression you should only compare an 18z with its predecessor. I think this has answered most of the questions raging in the Model runs. I for one shall now start to use a run from the previous Model shown....i.e. 12z to 18z Kind regards Rob

Hi Paul, I think that has pretty much nailed it <_< The interesting thing to arise from this discussion is IF we find all runs are using the same data where possible, it would be correct to compare the 12z to the 18z, etc yes? Kind regards Rob

Hi AFT, This was part of an email I had in response to my questions re the GFS. To be honest I suspect as Paul quite rightly states above most of the data would try to be incorporated in each run. The NOAA email makes it even more confusing though...sorry! <_< 'Model runs are generally made four times a day at 00Z (7:00 pm EST), 06Z (1:00 am EST), 12Z (7:00 am EST) and 18Z (1:00 pm EST). Since radiosonde observation balloons are released throughout the world at 00Z and 12Z, the models are "initialized" at these times with real data for subsequent runs. When there is little or no data, for example for the "off hour" 06Z and 18Z runs, the models are initialized from previous model run results. ' PS - It was New Years Eve when I asked the question though, so maybe he thought I was strange asking that question around 5pm, so he could have been waiting to go home for a drink! :lol: Kind regards CV

Hi mate, Also I noticed Newcastle called there footy game off tonight due to conditions outside the ground. Police advice apparently Kind regards Rob

Hi, Currently we are experiencing the smoke plume effect from the Hemel blast. Really amazing to see how dark it has become , seems quite haunting. Black cloud as far as I can see. Scary B)

Hi, Very foggy where we are in Herts border with London. Also has a definite nip in the air this morning .....like Winters past B) Visibilty was very poor earlier this morning Regards CV

Lea Valley area mate....Not sure of height there but you are right, It aint a good place to live if you want Snow Regards

Real marginal call Andy, not sure lower levels are going to see much snow More a rainy/sleety mix.hope for you I am wrong. Hertford doesnt seem to fare well when Snowy conditions are around if my memory serves me well? I think as has been pointed out a real waiting game right up to the last few runs.......16 more to go yet Subtle changes on every run will make this a last minute call where or if it happens. Hope your under some heavy snow come Friday though mate Regards CV

Thanks for that I was editing that as you spoke, I realise that just trying to get a take on that scenario Not Mild ramping here

SST's this Winter are going to have a lot less affect than most people are relying on? 1. With S/SW Winds right now these SST's are set to provide 'much more green' anomilies than we can see right now 2. With synoptics set right through until mid November at Mild these suggests a Winter of 'less' cold with warm temps warming the sea and again putting as dampener on SST's 3. Late hurricane season meaning 'ad hoc' temps which are not good for SST's driving them North when we want them slightly North of the UK 4. No end in sight to an Azores High/Bartlett meaning SST's mean and HAVE very little affect on coming synoptics unfortuantly Regards Chart Viewer

Those cold pools for the 27th are definitly expanding and getting a deeper blue Notice the spread South towards the UK

Kiev amazing temps for this time of year.... http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif