ChartViewer
-
Posts
1,198 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by ChartViewer
-
-
It was the meteorologist at http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/feature?sectio...&id=6102015
that said it. I'm just passing it on. Obviously you know better.
I bow down to your knowledge.
Your comment about inbreeding was poor:-)....but i like you
-
a massive central eye has also cleared on sat
also note how much ike has shrunk in size over the last 3 or 4 hours ... quite incredible, it has just shrivled up
edit- fix spelling mistake ... hard to type with one arm holding a 3 week old, and one on the keyboard! LOL
Thankfully?
Also it is hitting land soon and I suspect that be a reason why as much as its completely disorganised structure...........It will still hit as a 2
-
Well, after I posted I heard on CNN that many thousands have in fact stayed in place in the coastal strip for whatever reasons, they could still leave in some cases as the bridge out is open and above water level. There was also a report that a freighter with 22 on board is adrift somewhere between Galveston and the eye, I gather the engines have cut out and the ship is adrift. Rescue was aborted due to the conditions, so it remains to be seen what will happen there.
I don't like the looks of the storm centre spinning down at present either, there is still time to go well into cat-3 range before midnight. Back later.
As you quite rightly said whether it hits as a 2 or 3 the Storm surge will be the problem........Already freeways being cut off in low lying coastal areas..............Galveston will be devasted structually but humanly they have made plans
-
A hit to the east will make a massive difference to the Bay, it the difference between many towns getting totally wiped out, and bad damage. Whilst its going to be bad no matter what, a hit where its progged is probably the difference between 20-50 deaths and 500-1000 deaths...
Current motion is about 315, thats going to aim this pretty much at the Bay, however we do need to watch for wobbles before landfall, we shall see.
IF it hits where its progged, this is going to turn out to be a very severe situation, heck the storm hasn't even started, the people who stayed are totally foolish and probably have a 50-50 chance of death IMO.
Totally agree KW........Amazing footage at khou of people taking pictures of the bay and talking to media (who do not help IMHO) that they will ride it out etc etc........The Media build it up as as entertainment then wonder why people stay to get there pics on the TV...Absolutely crackers and as you say the real surge is a while away..........
I find the whole situation there crazy and I have relatives in Austin who have been phoning to say they have seen an influx but not as much as they would have thought at this time!
-
Latest Sat images of Ike on the link - Taken from the International Space Station....One of which shows IKE covering over half of Cuba.Absolutely stunning images on that NASA site.................
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/..._ike091008.html
-
-
Stunning picture of Gustav as it approached Jamaica (from the NASA site)
http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/271146m...015046_high.jpg
-
I think you will get extremely frustrated doing that mate but its up to you.
regards
John
Hi John,
I am frustrated with the data full stop. You know that more than most <_<
I think I will give up and just watch events unfold :lol:
You are right though on a more technical basis running a 5 day 12z v 12z trend must be more
precise than just a 5 run trend.
Great discussion though
Kind regards
Rob
-
It being only a MODEL, I can imagine a few inherent flaws:
It would need infinite computing capacity, and infinite AND continuous data-input for it to be a perfect replica of the real thing...Like all models, it's a highly simplified version of reality
<_< :lol:
Yes and computer Models are always likely to receive corrupt data at some point Peter. Which means
unless they are updating in real time they are always open to interpretation and flaws.
Cant beat the real thing
Cheers
Rob
-
To be honest, I never really thought there was an issue with comparing runs - ok there will always some differences in the data, but I don't think that it will ever be different enough to say that comparing run for run won't work. I've never seen anything from the NCEP to suggest that each run cannot be followed in turn either <_<
Thanks Paul,
Seemed to be a big issue when looking at the Models as most users were under the Impression you should only
compare an 18z with its predecessor.
I think this has answered most of the questions raging in the Model runs.
I for one shall now start to use a run from the previous Model shown....i.e. 12z to 18z
Kind regards
Rob
-
As I understand, basically how it works is that all of the data sources and types I listed above go into each 'data dump' before the model is run. If for example there is no new radiosonde data available for a run then old data will be used. Within each data type though there can be a varying amount of data available - so for instance there is probably more flight data from the atlantic within the 12z and 18z runs as there are more flights across the atlantic at those times.
Hi Paul,
I think that has pretty much nailed it <_<
The interesting thing to arise from this discussion is IF we find all runs are using the same data
where possible, it would be correct to compare the 12z to the 18z, etc yes?
Kind regards
Rob
-
Hi AFT,
This was part of an email I had in response to my questions re the GFS. To be honest
I suspect as Paul quite rightly states above most of the data would try to be incorporated in each run.
The NOAA email makes it even more confusing though...sorry! <_<
'Model runs are generally made four times a day at 00Z (7:00 pm EST),
06Z (1:00 am EST), 12Z (7:00 am EST) and 18Z (1:00 pm EST). Since
radiosonde observation balloons are released throughout the world at
00Z and 12Z, the models are "initialized" at these times with real
data for subsequent runs. When there is little or no data, for example
for the "off hour" 06Z and 18Z runs, the models are initialized from
previous model run results. '
PS - It was New Years Eve when I asked the question though, so maybe he thought I was
strange asking that question around 5pm, so he could have been waiting to go home for a drink! :lol:
Kind regards
CV
-
evening everyone from the north east
Been quite a dramatic day up here today plenty of snow ,including a snow storm around 5ish driving conditions treacherous,and its pretty cold as well -1 at preasant.local news have issued further snowfall for the north east for tonight tomorrow and friday being the worse day...
stormchaser1
Hi mate,
Also I noticed Newcastle called there footy game off tonight due to conditions outside the ground.
Police advice apparently
Kind regards
Rob
-
Hi,
Currently we are experiencing the smoke plume effect from the Hemel
blast. Really amazing to see how dark it has become , seems quite haunting.
Black cloud as far as I can see.
Scary B)
-
Hi,
Very foggy where we are in Herts border with London. Also has a definite nip in the air
this morning
.....like Winters past B) Visibilty was very poor earlier this morning
Regards
CV
-
but knowing hertford they will say everywhere will get snow apart from hertford
Lea Valley area mate....Not sure of height there but you are right, It aint a good place to live if you want Snow
Regards
-
just seen the bbc news 24 and they are now saying blizzard conditions but stopped short of saying where
Real marginal call Andy, not sure lower levels are going to see much snow
More a rainy/sleety mix.hope for you I am wrong. Hertford doesnt seem to fare well when Snowy conditions are around if my memory serves me well?
I think as has been pointed out a real waiting game right up to the last few runs.......16 more to go yet
Subtle changes on every run will make this a last minute call where or if it happens.
Hope your under some heavy snow come Friday though mate
Regards
CV
-
But that's the 5th December - we've got a week and a half of potentially snowy weather from next Thursday to get through before then!
Anyway, it's not a sign of zonality, in fact not anywhere near zonality as the Greenland High is still very large and in situ.
Thanks for that I was editing that as you spoke, I realise that just trying to get a take on that scenario
Not Mild ramping here
-
SST's this Winter are going to have a lot less affect than most people are relying on?
1. With S/SW Winds right now these SST's are set to provide 'much more green' anomilies than we can see right now
2. With synoptics set right through until mid November at Mild these suggests a Winter of 'less' cold with warm temps warming the sea and again putting as dampener on SST's
3. Late hurricane season meaning 'ad hoc' temps which are not good for SST's driving them North when we want them slightly North of the UK
4. No end in sight to an Azores High/Bartlett meaning SST's mean and HAVE very little affect on coming synoptics unfortuantly
Regards
Chart Viewer
-
Those cold pools for the 27th are definitly expanding and getting a deeper blue
Notice the spread South towards the UK
-
It's going to get one hell of a lot warmer over the next few days- be warned!
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Kiev amazing temps for this time of year....
http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink.gif
Hurricane Ike weather discussion (thread 2)
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted · Edited by ChartViewer
Kold although you compare it to Katrina the devastation will not in a human form be as bad at all......Texas has planned for this for a long while and learned the lessons of Katrina and also NO had a dry river system and no run back to the Ocean system....Galveston and Houston have........Also they have evacuated 80% of residents compared to 50% in NO...........This will not see a human problem in the scale of Katrina.....Simply put they have learnt NOrleans lessons.....