Aussie Big Ben

Well He's back to a cat 5 (on our scale) again. Didn't think he'd be able to and I've never seen a cyclone projected to survive so far inland! TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 80 Issued at 11:45 am WST on Monday, 21 December 2009 BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Port Hedland and adjacent inland areas including Marble Bar, Nullagine and Telfer. A Cyclone WATCH continues for inland parts of the southwest Kimberley and eastern Pilbara, extending a long way inland to the WA border and including Warburton and Giles. The Cyclone WARNING for Broome to Bidyadanga has been cancelled. At 11:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence was estimated to be 75 kilometres north of Wallal and 240 kilometres east northeast of Port Hedland moving south southeast at 6 kilometres per hour. Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is intensifying as it moves southwards towards the Eighty Mile Beach area of the Pilbara-Kimberley coast. Residents are warned of a period of VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 285 kilometres per hour developing during this afternoon. People in the area are specifically warned of the VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE expected as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING. GALES are beginning along the coast between Bidyadanga and Wallal and gales and DESTRUCTIVE winds are likely to extend further along the coast and inland during the day, possibly reaching as far as Telfer by Tuesday morning. Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal parts of the western Kimberley and eastern Pilbara today, extending to the inland eastern Pilbara on Tuesday. FESA-State Emergency Service advises as a precautionary measure the following community alerts: RED ALERT: People in or near communities from Sandfire to Pardoo and inland to Yarrie need to go to shelter immediately. YELLOW ALERT: People in Bidyadanga need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone. BLUE ALERT: People in or near communities from De Grey to Port Hedland and inland to Marble Bar, Nullagine and Telfer need to prepare for cyclonic weather. Communities in the southwest Kimberley and eastern Pilbara should listen for the next advice. Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 11:00 am WST: .Centre located near...... 19.1 degrees South 120.5 degrees East .Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres .Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 6 kilometres per hour .Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour .Severity category........ 5 .Central pressure......... 929 hectoPascals

Surely the worst will occur when the winds shift after the eye passes, then they will come from offshore and drive the swell. Until then it's just a big nervous wait.

Well not only has TC formed in the GOC, another has formed in the Indian Ocean as well. TC Guba (named by the PNG weather bureau) is currently sitting (as of 4am) 385km North East of Lockhart River and is expected to turn SE and intensify slightly. TC Lee has also been named by the Perth Bureau but appears to be moving further away from Australia from it's location which is a long way from the coast. I would have thought this one was outside Australian waters but we have named it? Extremely early start to our season, I wonder if this means that we will be seeing a lot more tropical cyclones this year. BOM has a new cyclone page, Aust. BOM cyclone page which should have all the details on all systems that form this season.

Currently a Cat 2, predicted to be a cat 5 by Thursday by the BOM. JTWC have it at 100kts gusting 125. Link for BOM http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml Link for JTWC https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/I need to control my language707.gif

Just thought I'd point out that Melbourne got to 42.1deg on the weekend, Hottest day this year and it's only a dozen days into summer! Jan & Feb is traditionally when it hots up, 40+ this early is unusual. The temps haven't helped the bushfires but so far not much damage (lives or homes) has occured just ONLY 280,000 Hectares has been burnt. Not sure what units of land measure the uk use, but if its acres then it's just under 700,000 acres. NSW & Tassie have also had fires, sadly more than 20 homes were burnt out in Tassie. Edit- I know this isn't fully relevant to the thread but seemed more appropriate than opening up a new thread.

2 Seriously strong storm cells 1 about 50km nnw of Brisbane, the other about 100km south. radar image is awesome. I wish I could post the radar, I have rarely seen the darkest colour on the Bureau's scale, to see it in 3 locations on the same image is unbelievable. This is a close up on the cell 100km south of Bisbane, thanks to bokkey from weathezone.com.au http://www.freewebs.com/sonicbok/KyogleSCradar.JPG

Just noticed (I'm a bit slow) that the Eastern Pacific is active again. Hurricane Daniel appear to be fairly strong and he's the type I like as he won't make landfall and destroy peoples homes and lives. If I am mistaken and there is already a thread on this I apologise and can someone point me to it :-) This from www.nhc.noaa.gov 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190227 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006 THE HURRICANE IS CONTINUING ITS INTENSIFICATION WITH TIGHTLY-WOUND BANDS OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER AND AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN. AFTER A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS AGO...A SMALL EYE IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT IN BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 65 KT FROM SAB/TAFB AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS OF 72 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR DANIEL PROVIDING A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE SSTS ARE WARM AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. ALL SIGNS POINT TO AT LEAST A STEADY INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE SSTS BEGIN TO COOL. THEREAFTER... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF STEADY/SLIGHTLY DECREASINGLY SSTS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR MIGHT FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANNULAR-TYPE HURRICANE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW DANIEL TO STAY STRONGER FOR A LONGER AMOUNT OF TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE WHICH KEEP DANIEL AS A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. DANIEL IS MOVING BASICALLY DUE WEST...ABOUT 270/10. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THEREAFTER...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES DIVERGE A LITTLE BY MOVING DANIEL ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 130W. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/ECMWF CLUSTER SHOWS LESS OF A TROUGH...KEEPING THE HURRICANE ON A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS...ALONG THE LINES OF THE ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 11.9N 118.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 12.0N 119.9W 80 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 12.2N 121.5W 90 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 12.6N 123.3W 100 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 13.0N 125.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 13.7N 128.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 14.5N 132.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

000 WTNT42 KNHC 190233 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006 1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 LAST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BERYL IS NOT CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A CURVED BAND MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IN FACT...IT SEEMS THAT THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL ZONE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND THE SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE. BERYL SHOULD BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS OR LESS. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OF 350 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SINCE MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURN BERYL TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...I AM KEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL A DEFINITIVE TREND AWAY FROM COAST BEGINS. THIS TREND COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 34.1N 73.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 35.0N 73.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 36.0N 73.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 37.5N 73.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 39.5N 71.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 42.0N 67.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 23/0000Z 43.0N 61.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 24/0000Z 44.5N 56.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA

If you want to check out the path of Glenda, the radar maps from Dampier and Port Hedland are interesting. The update every 10 minutes. Here's the link. http://mirror.bom.gov.au/weather/radar/

She's weakening now, Cat 4 now, only just. I did a bit more searching of the BOM website and found that it's the maximum gust not the sustained speed that defines the category in this area (ie Australia) 279+ =cat 5 so Glenda is 4km/h under. ROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 35 Issued at 11:45 am WST on Wednesday, 29 March 2006 BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE for coastal areas between De Grey and Onslow and extending to adjacent inland parts. A CYCLONE WATCH extends from Onslow to Coral Bay and includes the inland western Pilbara and adjacent Gascoyne. At 11am WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA was estimated to be 315 kilometres north of Port Hedland and 395 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and was moving west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour. Communities along the Pilbara coast should be aware that SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA is expected to approach the coast later today and during Thursday. Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop on the Pilbara coast later today with gusts to increasing to 125 kilometres per hour overnight. Residents of the central and west Pilbara coast are warned of the risk of very destructive winds with gusts exceeding 250 kilometres per hour during Thursday close to the centre as this very dangerous cyclone nears the coast. Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA at 11am WST Wednesday. Location of centre : within 30 kilometres of Latitude 17.5 South Longitude 118.4 East. Recent movement : West southwest at 14 kilometres per hour. Central Pressure : 916 hPa. Maximum wind gusts : 275 kilometres per hour. Severity Category : 4

Nah, I'm in Melbourne recovering from the Commonwealth Games. 88MB in 36 hours is a fair drop in pressure. I wonder if Glenda can get below 900? 2!/2 hours for cat 2 to 5, that's scary.

Number 30 is in TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 30 Issued at 9:10 pm WST on Tuesday, 28 March 2006 BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH A CYCLONE WARNING is now current for a CATEGORY 5 CYCLONE for coastal areas between Wallal and Mardie. A CYCLONE WATCH extends from Mardie to Exmouth. At 8Pm WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA was estimated to be 240 kilometres northwest of Broome and 450 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and was moving southwest at 18 kilometres per hour. Communities along the Pilbara should be aware that SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA is expected to approach coast later on Wednesday and during Thursday. Gales with gusts to 125 kilometres per hour may develop along the Pilbara coast between Wallal and Mardie as early as Wednesday night but more likely early on Thursday morning. There is the risk of very destructive winds during Thursday as the cyclone moves closer to the coast. Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA at 8Pm WST Tuesday. Location of centre : within 30 kilometres of Latitude 16.7 South Longitude 120.4 East. Recent movement : Southwest at 18 kilometres per hour. Central Pressure : 910 hPa. Maximum wind gusts : 300 kilometres per hour. Severity Category : 5 FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present. 36 hours from conception to a category 5 system. Does anyone know what the quickest time for a 0 to 5 development?

Summer blizzard, from the BOM website. So it's currently 115kts gusting to 140kts (from JTWC) - 115kts is about 210 (115*1.85) which makes it a category 5. the BOM update will reflect this I suspect.

The eye is tiny. Idf you look at the broome 256k radar loop, you can clearly see the eye. Looks to be about 10km (6 miles) across. http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR172.loop.shtml My bad on number thirty, I saw 9pm and assumed AEDT, I was 3 hours out. 30 due in about 2 hours

Number 30 is due soon (within the hour) It dropped 15hp in 3 hours and JTWC expects that it will reach 150kts sustained wins gusting to 180kts at 291800Z. TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 29 Issued at 3:00 pm WST on Tuesday, 28 March 2006 BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH A CYCLONE WATCH is now current for a CATEGORY 4 CYCLONE for coastal areas between Wallal and Exmouth. The CYCLONE WARNING for coastal and island areas between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga has been cancelled. At 2pm WST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA was estimated to be 200 kilometres west northwest of Cape Leveque and 260 kilometres north northwest of Broome and was moving west southwest at 11 kilometres per hour. The cyclone is expected to move roughly parallel to the coast for the next 24 to 36 hours and continue to intensify. Communities in the central and western Pilbara should be aware that SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA is expected to approach coast during Thursday or Friday, when it is likely to be a very dangerous tropical cyclone with very destructive winds. Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GLENDA at 2pm WST Tuesday. Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of Latitude 16.0 South Longitude 121.1 East. Recent movement : West southwest at 11 kilometres per hour. Central Pressure : 925 hPa. Maximum wind gusts : 265 kilometres per hour. Severity Category : 4