chionomaniac
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Posts posted by chionomaniac
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34.4ºC mid August Heathrow.
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Well done Stu. I wasn't sure that that was a tornado looking at the live streaming last night but suspected it was.Thanks for giving us live pictures.
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try post 36 !
Cheers I saw that but can't find Sheridan!
Found it ... South of Little Rock
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Just tuned in. Can anyone tell me where the net weather boys are at the mo?
It seems that there are a line of severe storms east of Oklahoma presently
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NOAA Weather radio warning of a Dangerous Day ahead today, so take care teams, We certainly will NOT Be core punching today with the risk of Strong and Damaging Tornadoes likely. Temp here is unbearable with 80c and a Dewpoint of 73c B)
Good luck today Steve, today has all the hallmarks of going HIGH Risk and picking a chase target is an absolute mare when the Moderate risk covers thousands of square miles B) Still looking over Models and still scratching my head!
Paul S
Where are you now and what is the most important factor when choosing where to go when the at risk area is so vast?
I'm going to pin the tail somewhere between El Dorado and Greenville from looking at the nw charts.
Good Luck and stay safe.
c
edit seeing NF post terrain is very important
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Stu is just behind Roger Hill, they look like they're heading towards a storm now, is that the one you mean or is there something else beyond that?
Looks like they're going pretty fast!
Cor blimey I have never seen clouds form as quick as on Stu's chasecam. It's like it is playing on fast forward!
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The SPC have already upgraded chances of tornadoes in Kansas from 0% this morning to 5% now.
The storm north of Garden City seems to be increasing in intensity with a definite hook in its tail. I wonder if there is a tornado on the ground now- certainly the relative motion analysis is interesting!
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Stu seems to be driving hard to get there.(Western Kansas).
Lets hope he makes it in time to see some action. Tornados already reported!
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/last3hours.html
c
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In my posts,
z = GMT
The Texas panhandle is far western CDT so effectively the local time is five hours behind GMT, or six hours behind BST.
But effectively it is more like six and a half or behind due to the longitude, if you're trying to work out what part of the daily cycle these storms are in -- and the climatology is that most of these outbreaks flare up around 00z and produce some of their worst severe weather around 01-02z. However, the storms that chasers like better are earlier developers that have better lighting and also less problems with visibility.
Thanks Roger
These storms just fire up too late for me!! Bedtime beckons. However I look forward to hearing all about them tomorrow.
c
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My current assessment, eastern TX panhandle to far west OK may be good for later tornadic storm development, Lubbock area currently inhibited by widespread low level cloud that will lift slowly this afternoon, dry line pushing into far s.e. NM may trigger before 00z west of Plainview to Amarillo, meanwhile also good prospects sw KS from developing cells in se CO.
If it were me, I would take the chance on staying between Amarillo and Clinton OK where I think the chances of seeing tornadic storms is higher than other areas. Initiation likely around 2030z with max around 23z.
Thanks for your input Roger. It helps watchers from afar like myself. Can I ask what time zones that you are quoting? Thanks
c
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When are taking the end of this week as being because Sunday is also looking very warm perhaps with a thundery breakdown? ( a long way off I know)
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Thanks for the pictures and reports guys. It seems like the action is really hotting up. I stayed up til gone midnight tracking the storms on live streaming, radar and with Rogers valuable input. I have to say Gorky there was some great live streaming of the Roswell storm with its rotating wall cloud that never seemed to quite make it into a tornado. The excitement was tangible on this side of the Atlantic.
To all the guys good luck for the next few days. Please keep us informed where you are as it is really interesting tracking the same individual storms you are chasing.
c
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Morning to those in the USA , afternoon to all here. Good luck on the chase today . Heres hoping you get to see some action.
With the tornado risk being 5% does that mean the chance of any particular storm dropping a tornado or for the area as a whole? Has it ever been 100%?
c
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Fantastic, at last the South East has a 'weather event', nice collection of topical shots chionomaniac that sum up todays event.
That snowman is quite a beast - did Daddy or Mummy have a helping hand?
Not this mummy or daddy. We watched our neighbour build it then stuck our own kids next to it!
Today, Coast, certainly made up for those mild winters.
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The best of todays photos from Brighton and Ditchling Beacon
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Glorious day here today. Hadley CET upto 10.6ºC. Another rise tomorrow when todays weather is accounted for and then the inevitable drop will occur.
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Where can you see it at the moment?
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/data/download.html
You can find of most of the CET stats from the second link.
c
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:lol: I'm going to be near the bottom of the table after that prediction. It looks like being totally the opposite of my prediction. In fact April CET, if it plays out as it is currently being shown could be significantly below average.
Though you can feel good about your prediction for a few days! Hadley CET is 10.2ºC today.
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Actually there's an outside chance on Thursday or Friday this week. Unlikely it's true, but those two days could throw up some real warmth in favoured spots. 65C (18C) certainly likely, and it may well push closer towards 70F somewhere.
Then it looks like all downhill from there with the northerly retrogressing high and easterlies / north-easterlies. Why oh why didn't it do this three months ago, instead of this complete waste of time?
Agree entirely on all counts even more so after your edit.
I don't expect 21ºC to be reached until last week of April/ first week of May.
I guess these are the synoptic situations that you thought/hoped for that we were going to get in winter back last November!
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The 36oz Houston cut ribeye looks challenging. Do you reckon they sell many char-broiled fresh salmon fillets?
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With Northern Blocking looking like the dominant pattern, once we have got this week out of the way, (I don't expect 21ºC to be reached) it appears that we may have to wait a few more weeks before the chance of hitting 70ºF returns.
What is the latest date that this figure has been reached?
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I'm all up for it but I'll delay it until 1am tomorrow morning. I can categorically say I will not use up any energy between 1 and 2 am tomorrow.
Failing that I'll make sure the babysitter sits in silence and darkness tonight.
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Another good episode tonight. But it seems like too many egos getting in the way of success to me!
I think it showed how difficult it was to catch a tornado. I wonder how do the nw team decide which way to go if different members of the team have differing opinions on where a tornado is going to form? Who decides?
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Amongst all the gadgets to take along on a storm chase don't forget the plastic bottle!!!
June CET
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
An above average 15.5ºC due to some warm nights.