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tinybill

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Posts posted by tinybill

  1. In regards to the upcoming hurricane season, while things are looking good for another early start to the hurricane season, i believe that the QBO will be in a positive (westerly) mode meaning that the Bermuda-Azores High will be displaced eastward so that westerly sheer will be prevalant in the Carribean so that the majority of tropical development will occur in the Atlantic, on top of that, i expect El Nino conditions to develop during July, so here are my thoughts for the hurricane season.

    May - 0 tropical storms

    June - 2 tropical storms

    July - 3 tropical storms

    August - 2 tropical storms

    September - 2 tropical storms

    October - 1 tropical storm

    In conclusion, i expect a average number of named storms to develop this season with the majority of named storms forming in the tropical Atlantic before curving northward leading to a above average number of named storms hitting the east coast of America, i do expect a above average start to the hurricane season and should no El Nino develop during July, then my estimate may be revised upward.

    here are the names for the hurrican season

    Aletta

    Bud

    Carlotta

    Daniel

    Emilia

    Fabio

    Gilma

    Hector

    Ileana

    John

    Kristy

    Lane

    Miriam

    Norman

    Olivia

    Paul

    Rosa

    Sergio

    Tara

    Vicente

    Willa

    Xavier

    Yolanda

    Zeke

  2. weather warning for may 1 st

    It appears that there will be a chance at supercells over portions of eastern kansas and northeast oklahoma on monday the 1st.

    While it is unclear how - models are in good agreement that there will be a significant increase in the low level moisture in this region resulting in a fairly unstable (3000 j/kg sbcape) late afternoon and early evening atmosphere. It is also unclear just where low level boundaries will end up.... but it looks like there may be a couple of e/w regions of low level focus. The primary front may end up near the ks/ok border.

    WNW flow aloft with an embedded shortwave and 40 kts of h5 flow will spread across the threat area starting late in the afternoon. Forcing associated with the wave combined with surface heating and low level convergence should be suff for the development of storms. Deep layer shear of 40 to 50 kts combined with the instability suggests that initial activity will be supercellular. At this time... low level cape and shear do not look favorable for tornadoes. Tho... there is always that slight chance a localized area may have everything come together just right. I would expect some nice late day storm structure and the potential for large hail until evolution toward MCS takes place a couple of hours after dark.... at which time higher lightning photo ops are looking good.

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