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changed to .tv as hosted in Tuvalu, in the S Pacific. .tv is just a country prefix like .uk. welcome to the south pacific! Don't think you'll be wanting to hula on the beach later though PP. looks a bit chilly.

heck, that's right on top of us here. here's hoping we see just a smidgeon further movement south of this LP (75 miles of current estimate would do probably) and it will be a classic for London and no risk of rain. And increase the likleyhood of further bouts of snow later on in the week / month.

thanks Steve for that very comprehensive and well explained report. Posters like you really increase people like myself's understanding of these events. thank you.

this is indeed v exciting Nick. My partner however will not allow me to stay up all night twitching the curtains and looking at the models (sounds quite a seedy activity doesnt it) . Please can you enlighten me on what the triple point showing on the meto could mean? does this indicate intensification of precipitation?

the last meto warning was just put up at 11 am and nothing has really changed since then. the coast is going to get rain. inland from the coastal strip, you should see snow . the most up to date charts show the low moving further south. this increases your chance of snow in your location.

overnight low -2.6 deg , lowest of the winter so far, and very cold for inner london.

this is just totally confusing now another change and the suspense is killing me! does anyone know what is going on with these models? people seem to be posting that they will be disappointed, happy , suicidal , looking at the same models and posting about the same locations! presumably the low tracking further south will increase the likelyhood of the snow band sitting further south, keep the appropriate DAM line well south and not infecting the cold air with warm temps and rain - and keeping it as snow in the south??

do the charts show much wind behind this system, will we be drawing SE winds towards London or do they show a westerly flow sorry i'm a bit busy at work.

good post plank and its nice to see some science being used. my feeling is this is very positive, the charts show (i think) rain for the south coast and 10/15 miles inland, further up from there, snow will be the order of the day. last night was colder at my location than forecast and we should see similar tonight, though clearly the increasing cloud cover with the front approaching could put a limit on the cold. i see several hours of snow for all areas except the southern strip.

c'mon man -it is nearly always "over ramped for you" you live in Cork one of the places its least likely to snow anywhere in Europe! you will nearly always be disappointed, sadly. whats interesting to me is that the snow looks less likey to turn to rain early from these charts as it did yesterday. it may even stay as snow as far south as london .

was the coldest night of the winter in London last night, an unusually cold -2.6 deg C at my location, v cold for inner London and a very thick frost this morning, including frozen condensation inside surface of windows - can't remember that for a few years. interesting that talk of the snow "turning back to rain" seems to have disappeared somewhat from the TV forecasts. i reckon even Central London could see 5cm and it may not turn back to rain here after all. what do others think?

his spirit guide probably! lol only kidding - just thinking about Roberts posts for 10 Feb. Looks like it will turn out snowy, quite bizarre. mind you if you were going to punt any date for us to get snow in winter it would probably be between 1st -15th Feb....

not sure about that as the Southern Pennines are prone to doing really well out of these set ups, even if you think it will be the south that cops it. you will get a load in the next few days , mark my words!

gulp. it looks like 1683 all over again! v promising charts , they look like classics partic at the weekend! cold everywhere and snow potential everywhere!

for us in s london we really need that LP to stick close to the channel / n france , not move so far north as progged and continue its track ever so slightly North East once it gets east of brighton, and remain nearly stationary. this is one of the possible outcomes and would leave us in the cold, snowy section for longer. we could also do with dragging a cool s. east /easterly feed in to lessen any urban heat island effect and avoid the southerly /s westerly moist drag (though we need some moisture) - god we want it all! i didnt live in london at the time of the 91 event but i remember hearing there was 9 inches of snow lying in central london. would be great to see that. up in west yorks we had 27 inches where i lived - it was fabulous. that was from a full blown front from the east though & very rare.

well it certainly is a bit of a throwback, snow "pushing up from the South", i distinctly remember several heavy snowfall events in Northern England (more than a decade ago) from such situations. as far as feb 91 is concerned, i can see what you mean but so much to be decided. certain things seem to be slotting into place. i think we will have a clearer picture by the weekend . nothing would please me more than to see frontal activity moving east to west over us!

Seriously, the jet is going to dive to the South leading to HP over Scandia, and the snowy tentacles of the LP's coming through the channel and Northern France will sweep over us in every increasing waves til the end of March!

sorry Tamara i'm prob just being negative and bitter in advance, as i live in se london and i reckon a combination of the urban heat island effect and my being south of the river may conspire to wreck this one for me. still, we had a nice taste the week before last, couple of cm, after which i said i was now satisfied and it needn't snow again this winter. now of course, i want another bite of the cherry and dreaming of another '91........

Nick , what do you reckon on Central London seeing another covering, like the week before last, when we managed to get 2cm from the northerly? Is the urban heat island effect going to kick in and ruin this one or will there be enough wind behind this system to reduce this impact, and if so from what direction will the winds be blowing? reason i ask is last night , supposedly a cold night, we had a pronounced UHI effect (i'm guessing due to lack of wind) and the temps didnt get below 1.1 deg C - rubbiDoh a dumb swear filter got the better of me

the thing is, "disruption" levels of snow are about 2 cm these days and 1 hour of snowfall qualifies as a blizzard. remember , for the cities in the south this will probably be a rain event, and anywhere below 700ft , south of the pennines, this snow is expected to turn back to rain quite readily.

the thing is, "disruption" levels of snow are about 2 cm these days and 1 hour of snowfall qualifies as a blizzard. remember , for the cities in the south this will probably be a rain event, and anywhere below 700ft , south of the pennines, this snow is expected to turn back to rain quite readily.

cool last night but no air frost at my location 1.1 deg the lowest temp, under cloud cover. nothing too severe yet.

The world population should be reduced by 75% over the next 50 years . This one measure will do more for the health of our planet than any other.

Fingers crossed. lots of chopping and changing happening with the models. the background trend seems to be towards cooler weather . If the low goes through the channel and pressure builds to the east, could the low / future lows get dragged into the similar posittion and with cold air nearby, cause a "repeat" scenario - i'm guessing this is where the excitement lies? So - even if theres a marginality to this thursday "event", we could perhaps see a further cooling and more certain likelyhood of frontal snowfall , say into next week - as long as the HP's to our North & North East East and jet forcing LP's to the south of us south play ball, there could be more channel lows and more "battle royales" guess i'm talking drivel but that's my little theory for today lol

the "cold snap" seems mroe likely to be now be 3 or 4 days of slightly below average for the time of year day time temps or 3 or 4 degrees C for most of the country. the latest models don't show any ice days or any snow for most people and the forecasters on the TV are seriously hedging their bets as the scenario looks very difficult to forecast, though the weekend's charts led to a tantalising forecast like we used to get in the good old days , on countryfile, today the charts have made the prospect of frontal snow which doesn't turn back to rain, seem remote. We await the 12z with baited breath for a more hopeful view! lets see what happens to the snow Factor, the positioning of this low is crucial but i think that the warm SST's and the jet may conspire to spoil the party. has to be said though that the progression back to the full zonality looks not that convincing to my amatur eye.