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cidersnow

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Posts posted by cidersnow

    Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

    I'd just like to make a very obvious point, but one that's useful.

    When reading this thread, especially this week - it's important to check the location of the user and what they are posting. 

    The 6z GFS is a perfectly good run for 90% of the country, it just gets more marginal further south and takes longer for the coldest air to get down to the very far S/SE - you will note the negativity mostly stems from those users in this thread. Much like, on the 0z I'd rather take my chances on an Atlantic incursion, because, for most of the W and NW - it's bone dry and very boring next week, whilst the SE gets in on some streamer action. It's all so fickle and the IMBY nature of things.

    As for the set up, it's knife edge, perilous, could go wrong with even one false step and the margins are even finer than virtually ANY other cold set up.

    Unlike some cold spells, There's a good 3/4 days to go before this is nailed down, the modelling of the low will be in 'current time' - when a feature such as that is so decisive in giving or taking a cold spell away - FI is down to 72 hours MAX. This could all go wrong or right on Wednesday evening. 

    Can people please, not, under any circumstance declare a freeze 'nailed' at Day 7. For 280th time this winter as it just leads to more toys out of the pram and an unreadable thread a few hours later when a computer generated forecast that's never actually come to fruition takes away some snowflakes at the window. 

    Morning all,

    Of course this post makes good sense but for me misses the essence of this forum and particularly the MOD thread when we are in sight (or think we are) of exceptional cold and snow. That is the amusement that can be gained form watching the irrationality of it all unfolding before your eyes. Intelligent people dealing with a the most analytical aspects of a complex and often chaotic subject. The clash of science and emotions. Head and heart. I love it. 

    Our willingness to commit to the models in unrealistic timeframes. Chopping and changing between loving and hating them is what this game is all about.

    Russ

    • Like 7

    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

    And yet for us southerners it was a nightmare come true 

    Indeed...In Clevedon, North Somerset we meausure our snowfall over the past 2 years in minutes it was visible on the ground rather than cm !! 

    90 mins so far this year (On Sunday morning)

    Models giving us some hope for the next 14 days at least

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - Into 2021

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Morning all,

    Exciting times for Model Watching. It's great to have so much to discuss after a run of winters with so little really (barring FI dreamcasting)

    But, my only caution would be that the enthusiasm to be the first to spot trends and new factors effecting output can lead to many mis-leading posts. This is what exaggerates what is already a roller-coaster ride for us all.  Science is better for review, reflection and patience.....not natural partners of on-line forums I know but we can all try.

     

    Russ

     

    • Like 4
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    Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, AmatuerMet1963 said:

    Hello, just an update. I wont be continuing my forum here, its more for techically advanced people than me an old analogue person who only uses farenheit still.  So I dont really fit in. Just to say, I have seen quite a bit of snow in Wigan today, more than for several years. Its lovely to watch and blackbirds were sitting in the snow at 7am in the day awaiting their first food. After that I managed to feed 36 in total of robins some tits, and more than the usual sparrows.

    I end my time here, with a longer range forecast I seen online today. The High pressure to the left of us for so long  heading towards Scandinavia while low pressure remains in Europe. this leads to strengthening North Easterlies, which forcasters prompt may be here to stay.  Further it will bring even colder air over the uk and of about 5th or 6th January will start feeding heavy snow showers that will get as far as the Manchester in the early days. Is this a possible "Beast from The East" scenario?

    I will come back to see any replys, but wont be posting again, my abilities to understand what's being discussed is way beyond me.  Im a general analogue Michael Fish!!!.

    happy new year to all, and hope a severe spell doesn't happen we dont  want covid high and broken bones adding the NHS crisis......!!!!❄️

    I've been lurking on here for a dozen winters at least now and enjoy all the sensible contributions. I have seen 'noisy' contributors come and go. I have seen many flavours of the season in terms of critical analysis but the fundamental principles of forecasting remain. Over the years I have been more enthralled by the psychology of the contributions than the the meteorolgy and that requires the site to be populated by members with different views and different experiences. Please don't feel the need to leave based on your 'analogue' analysis. 

    Good luck and Happy New Year 

    Russ

     

    • Like 19
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