basnowdon

Well, 10cm in Sutton Coldfield and still hammering it down, I reckon we have another hour of snow before the front shifts the the south east but with hope no rain at all judging by the rainfall radar... Very pleased and despite all the nay sayers on Birmingham's prospects, I reckon we will probably do amongst the best from this, especially as all the intense ppn seems to be holding back in our neck of the woods

Strange, reports of snow all around Birmingham (North, south, and east of) but in Sutton Coldfield it is still raining terribly - no signs of even sleet let alone snow. Just spoken to somebody on their way from Cambs and they are having it bad there apparently, he was quite suprised when I said it was raining here.

I would echo Phil's comments earlier, here just outside of Sutton Coldfield we saw nothing in the way of sleet all day yesterday, just rain rain rain. It is the same today, just rain. I would be cautious as to the track of the low, I think it could continue north for a little while yet. I am sure it will veer east after a time however I can see the north east tip of the main band veer a little NW if anything at present. I think if it does begin to veer east it may not happen until the band reaches the latitude of Linc rather than Northants or Leicester. Of course I am not expert but I think we in the midlands are only 2-3 hrs from the main event rather than 6-10hrs... and based on what we are getting here in Sutton at the moment that doesn't look great.

It was only last week that the METO left out a midlands shaped gap in their warnings for Tuesdays event, only to be updated 24-36 hours prior and to ultimately lead to parts of the Mids being more badly affected than most other parts of the country... I wouldn't take any notice of he warnings yet, I certainly won't be...I may not be able to read the charts like some here, but my experience with the METO and their warnings spans years...

A mammouth front heading the UK's way on Tuesday according to the BBC radar run... http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209 Surely the UK's established cold can't withstand that? If it does there could be a gargantuan and exceptionally rare snow event, or of course, the front somehow gets defected before it reaches our shores?

I don't think it has quite stalled yet, there no let up in the progress there in the last hour or so.

You know, I'm beginning to become wary of the chances of this front reaching the Mids, I suspect as it hits the more intense Northerly it will stop it in it's tracks, just watched the BBC Weather Forecast and I can not believe they would get this so wrong given there is only a few hours to go?

In short I think yes, the METO and BBC and most of the independents have got this quite wrong, even more wrong than they got the track of last night front...

Theres much agreement on a heavy PPN situation developing in the deep SE and outer area tonight into tomorrow. Tracking the radar I can not help wondering however whether the heavy band coming from the SW will deviate from it's NNE track at all and continue into Central South and into parts of Wales, the West Mids and East Mids (which look likely to fare well). I agree that the front may not make it that far north but looking at it's current track I can not see this swinging towards the SE, I see a stall over the South Mids / Central South much more likely before fading towards the east. The front last night certainly pushed throgh much more quickly and much more North Easterly than was expected even very imminently before the event, transfering the heaviest snow rish from the Welse Border to the NE and E Midlands? What are you thoughts on the possibility of this front continuing it's progressive NNE track?