djwayne
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Posts posted by djwayne
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Not sure what to make of Thursday are we going to be just on the wrong side of things again but its going to be a close one.
Models can't seem to agree on track and temps so its difficult to predict may just have to wait and see.
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Just saw on the cold hunt thread they are discussing the front coming through a lot earlier tomorrow so it would be in central uk by 10am. I would think if it comes through wales early mporning we may do better than expected as temps wont have risen so much.
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Not sure we are going to see anything significant today and if we do where it is going to come from although the forecast disagrees do they know something we don't?
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If you have a netweather radar subscription change the locality to Europe and look at the size of that storm pics above don't show the half of it.
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Starting to wonder how accurate the radar is in situations like this it has shown nothing over me for the last hour yet has been moderately snowing the whole time. Andy you are only up the road from me and I guess seeing the same?
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Not only have they upped the likelihood but they have also brought the warning forward 2 hours from 14:00 to 12:00
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2 minutes ago, bradythemole said:
I seem to be only one who is a little more apprehensive after 6z runs. But still pretty confident. Let’s see what euro4 shows. Tomorrow snow seems a definite now but tomorrow night into Friday still uncertain. GFS has rain for most by early Friday before colder air digs south again. Just waiting for arpege
Worth remembering that the Aperge run rolling out now is yesterday's 18Z things may well have changed in the last 12 hours as there has been mentions of southward corrections of the low which may keep the colder air over us.
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1 minute ago, Cwmbran Eira said:
How come we seem to lose 10cm from Thursday to Friday? bit weird that
IF you look at the bar at the bottom it is 2 different colours as the model is updating the darker colour is the 18z and the grey is the 12z
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I have to say (showing my age) that I remember 1982 and it was something else. I don't think any of the younger members on here have ever seen snow like it.
The schools were shut for at least 2 weeks and there were announcements on the radio (CBC at the time before all the red dragon and capital stations) that parents were asked to stop their children riding their bikes across Roath Park lake as it was frozen solid.
If we had an event anywhere near as bad as it was then I think a lot of people would be shocked and there will be major issues. 30cm sounds a lot but I lived in Roath at the time not really considered an area with any elevation and the snow was waist deep in our street with drifts up to the upper floors of the houses in places.
We will have to see how this compares but it would have to go some to get close to 1982.
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28 minutes ago, freeze for all said:
No I can't c them putting a red out it only says 5-10cm locally on Derek's Twitter with 20 -40cm on high ground
My opinion is you won't see a red until tomorrow morning if at all. Every red I have seen is just before the event starts when they are pretty certain of the outcome. Saying that I would expect the amber to move to being more likely on their matrix than it is now today.
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4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Latest runs not as good. Less snow by the looks.
I have to say not been convinced by the GFS charts for a few days. GFS shows rain saturday and very little snow for the rest of the week while METO have extended our yellow warning through saturday and given us an amber for Thurs / Fri. I honestly believe there are still corections to be made to the track of the low and if I were a betting man would back UKMO in this situation.
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1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
This is getting better and better heavy snow from 9pm Thursday until Friday afternoon!
Jay meto forecast shows it starting around 9am rather than PM for Cardiff although light snow.
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Not sure the showers we are seeing on the radar are intense enough to make it to us with anything left to deliver. May liven up a bit overnight but its a long haul on an easterly to get snow all the way from the north sea.
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6 minutes ago, Clair_Witch said:
Cardiff has been removed from tomorrow's Met Office weather warning. Warnings still in place for Thursday and Friday though.
Cardiff is on the very edge of the warning area so not out of the picture yet.
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Anyone else find it strange that Meto haven't updated their warnings yet?
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Derek's latest twet looks fun for Friday
https://twitter.com/DerekTheWeather/status/968103342386884608
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Leaving Friday aside for now as still much to be decided by the models on that one.
What are the thoughts for any snow between now and then? Meto have warnings out for tomorow what are peoples thoughts on the liklehood of us seeing anything?
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1 hour ago, andymusic said:
interesting possibilities for tonight
Latest run and that has pretty much disappeared the 6Z has none of it.
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Would love to think we will see some snow today / tomorrow however cant see it in the charts for us at the moment. Unless there is a change on the next model run and meto modify the warning area I fear most of south wales will miss out.
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Sleet here at the moment hoping that changes soon.
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Rain in llantwit fardre just went outside and its drizzle too warm for snow
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Will be interesting to see if meto do change rheir warnings based on the latest runs of their model. Suppose we will know in the next couple of hours if the warnings dont change then they are fairly certain of the outcome.
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Still think there are changes to come regarding Sunday the MOD thread seem to think he track is nailed down but not so convinced next 24 hours all to play for but we may end up with just a load of rain rather than blizzards.
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A slight correction south is all it needs to bring us into the firing line fingers crossed it keeps edging southwards each run as it has ben doing recently.
Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
you need to leave the singing to your better half lol.